BFTG - Derby

[Coppells Lost Coat]

I was getting a bit annoyed by the shooting from 25-30 yards if I am honest.

Even when Kelly's went in? He had another late on that was pretty close. He can hit them from there, if it opens up in front of him, why not have a go?

I just saw shooting from 25-30 yards as an improvement over passing the ball back 25-30 yards to the goalkeeper

+1 there is times to be safe and times to have a go. If the player feels confident to shoot fair play to him. Maybe Stam has finally sussed that possession isn't the important stat to look at at the end of the game.

[BR0B0T]

shots from 25 yds have an xG of 0.03

however

you do need a variety of tactics to keep the opponents 'honest'

[muirinho]

shots from 25 yds have an xG of 0.03

however

you do need a variety of tactics to keep the opponents 'honest'

to be fair, the xG would surely depend on who is taking them? There are some players who I'd be telling, have a go. And Stam said in an interview after the game that they were telling Liam Kelly to take those on, because he has that shot in him.

And there are others that would not apply to!

[BR0B0T]

shots from 25 yds have an xG of 0.03

however

you do need a variety of tactics to keep the opponents 'honest'

to be fair, the xG would surely depend on who is taking them? There are some players who I'd be telling, have a go. And Stam said in an interview after the game that they were telling Liam Kelly to take those on, because he has that shot in him.

And there are others that would not apply to!

it wouldn't differ that much...literally % point or two

[NewCorkSeth]

I just see it, when its as often as it was against Derby, as a lack of an attacking plan. They hit and hope because they don't know what they are supposed to do with the ball in the position they are in or their teammates are not in the right positions to continue an attacking move.
Bacuna for one seems to take a lot of poor quality long shots.

Yes Kellys goal was superb and its fantastic to see goals like that but realistically how many 30 yard screamers can be scored in one game? After you get one its probably not realistic you're going to get another.

[Denver Royal]

I just see it, when its as often as it was against Derby, as a lack of an attacking plan. They hit and hope because they don't know what they are supposed to do with the ball in the position they are in or their teammates are not in the right positions to continue an attacking move.

Bacuna for one seems to take a lot of poor quality long shots.

Yes Kellys goal was superb and its fantastic to see goals like that but realistically how many 30 yard screamers can be scored in one game? After you get one its probably not realistic you're going to get another.

Seth, Re. your first point, yes, it can be that. But, that can be a good thing, right? I'd rather someone has a go when there's nothing else 'on', rather than there be other, better, and higher percentage options available.

Re. your 2nd point, surely the laws of probability for success are pretty much about the same per shot, whether its the first screamer early in the game, or the last shot of the game and you've already scored from one earlier?

In other words, its not like a player, before shooting, has to think...'Well, we've already scored with one 30-yarder today, so I'll have no chance if I try another one here'. (Although, maybe a statto will come in here and prove things definitively )

I suppose other factors can play in to it, too. For example, when game planning, if the manager and coaches feel the oppo keeper is dodgy from distance. Or in-game decisions by the players, if they feel the keeper should have done better with an earlier one. Or, say, next time Kelly faces Carson, he might fancy his chances more, after Sat.

[Hound]

There were 2 decent hits, both by Kelly. Both the goal, and the slightly deflected effort which brought a good save

No issue with him taking pot shots tbh, he is good at them. Some of the other players efforts (Bacuna and Richards spring to mind) were hit with far less conviction or control.

[NewCorkSeth]

I just see it, when its as often as it was against Derby, as a lack of an attacking plan. They hit and hope because they don't know what they are supposed to do with the ball in the position they are in or their teammates are not in the right positions to continue an attacking move.

Bacuna for one seems to take a lot of poor quality long shots.

Yes Kellys goal was superb and its fantastic to see goals like that but realistically how many 30 yard screamers can be scored in one game? After you get one its probably not realistic you're going to get another.

Seth, Re. your first point, yes, it can be that. But, that can be a good thing, right? I'd rather someone has a go when there's nothing else 'on', rather than there be other, better, and higher percentage options available.

Re. your 2nd point, surely the laws of probability for success are pretty much about the same per shot, whether its the first screamer early in the game, or the last shot of the game and you've already scored from one earlier?

In other words, its not like a player, before shooting, has to think...'Well, we've already scored with one 30-yarder today, so I'll have no chance if I try another one here'. (Although, maybe a statto will come in here and prove things definitively )

I suppose other factors can play in to it, too. For example, when game planning, if the manager and coaches feel the oppo keeper is dodgy from distance. Or in-game decisions by the players, if they feel the keeper should have done better with an earlier one. Or, say, next time Kelly faces Carson, he might fancy his chances more, after Sat.

It certainly can be a good thing its just a bit draining how often there is nothing else 'on' as you put it. We are awful at breaking down opponents (excluding Barrow who is actually very good at breaking away) and so often we piss about outside their box only for a player to take a shot from distance that does nothing but give them a goal kick (or we give the ball away cheaply and fall to pieces during the counter attack)

We are surprisingly good at getting into good attacking positions and then leaving it up to luck. It rarely, to me, has seemed like we have an attacking plan beyond 'attack' so when we are looking for a goal, whether its chasing the lead or looking to extend it, and I see Bacuna or JVDB or whoever winding up to take a punt from 30 yards I cant help but think of it as wasted possession.

I imagine they dont think the way I do about it but maybe they should? Its like in Rugby. Yes you can score a drop goal whenever and from wherever you want but that doesnt mean its more valuable than the position youre in. Does anyone know what the record is for most 25+ yards goals in a game is? I bet its not high.

[tidus_mi2]

I was looking at the Derby forum and there was a topic about their good defensive record since we beat them 4-2. I had a look and it's pretty interesting, obviously we put 7 past them this season but between our two games they have only conceded 9 goals (if I counted right). In fact, considering they've only conceded 31 goals, we're responsible for almost a quarter of their goals conceded this season.

[Victor Meldrew]

Poor Ilori-I'm buggered if I would want to play alongside such a poor defender as Gunter at right back/wing back.
Nobody so far has said anything about Gunter's defending (again) as he had some reasonable forward runs but take a look at the first and third goals.
For the first he (yet again) failed to block a cross leading to a tap-in.
For the 3rd he just let Lawrence run into the box without a semblance of a challenge leaving Ilori (who was having a bad game) to hesitate and looked frightened to challenge in case he gave away a penalty.
The challenge should have been made by Gunter outside the box.
That first goal was similar to Forest's goal in midweek-player on the left is unchallenged by Gunter so squares the ball with ease for Tomlin to smash in.

That's my moan-the game overall was at last a pleasure on a Saturday afternoon in brilliant sunshine with Reading playing that bit quicker through midfield (no Joey to slow it all down) and Kelly had a decent game with that cracking goal and some good passing and Mo looking dangerous whenever on the ball (my player of the season so far).

What people find odd (as per discussions in the Gents!!) is that we are managed by one of the best central defenders ever to play the game in this country and yet he just cannot seem to get the message across to our defenders that they have to take responsibility and not just leave things to everybody else and IMHO this is the prime reason why we are perilously close to the relegation places.

Could really have shortened that to "I'll just blame Chris Gunter because he's an easy target."

Yep agreed. Gunter was at fault at Forest. To blame him for a shocking clearance by Ilori, a very poor tackle by Ilori and a really poor header by Ilori is laughable but Victor loves to scapegoat Gunter so it comes as no surprise. I suspect he will be blaming him for the Nazis invasion of Poland next

One final point on Saturday and Ilori.
I have just looked at the goals again.
For the first he did a dodgy overhead clearance but there were plenty of opportunities for others to make up for it before Gunter's weak challenge allowed the cross and an easy tap-in.
Despite what others have posted, the weak header from the free-kick was in fact a weak header by Clement who was positioned in front of Ilori that hit Ilori.
The 3rd goal came about from Gunter's weak challenge (i.e. no challenge) on Palmer leaving Ilori to make the last challenge which he f****d up.

Ilori had a game to forget after a game to remember at Forest so let's hope for a stronger performance tomorrow.

[St Pauli]

Went to the game with the future Father in law, who is a Villa fan (from Smethwick).

He's been talking about seeing empty stands on the sky highlights at Reading all season (on the wind up) and it was good to watch an exciting game with him from Y26 with an atmosphere of sorts. Polite applause at first turned to genuine joy when we scored our third, as it was helping out Villa, particularly with their win.

Either way, don't be too hard on yourself Reading, an entertaining, enjoyable game which pleased the neutral Brummies (not brummies) in the ground.

[Mr Optimist]

Went to the game with the future Father in law, who is a Villa fan (from Smethwick).

He's been talking about seeing empty stands on the sky highlights at Reading all season (on the wind up) and it was good to watch an exciting game with him from Y26 with an atmosphere of sorts. Polite applause at first turned to genuine joy when we scored our third, as it was helping out Villa, particularly with their win.

Either way, don't be too hard on yourself Reading, an entertaining, enjoyable game which pleased the neutral Brummies (not brummies) in the ground.

By rights, being from Smerrick, he should be going nowhere near Villa and should be a boing boing Baggie!

[St Pauli]

Went to the game with the future Father in law, who is a Villa fan (from Smethwick).

He's been talking about seeing empty stands on the sky highlights at Reading all season (on the wind up) and it was good to watch an exciting game with him from Y26 with an atmosphere of sorts. Polite applause at first turned to genuine joy when we scored our third, as it was helping out Villa, particularly with their win.

Either way, don't be too hard on yourself Reading, an entertaining, enjoyable game which pleased the neutral Brummies (not brummies) in the ground.

By rights, being from Smerrick, he should be going nowhere near Villa and should be a boing boing Baggie!

Are you suggesting that a few months before my wedding I tell the future FIL that he's a plastic Brummie? To his face? Before having to spend 10 hours with him?

[Mr Optimist]

Yes, also adding that he should support Worcestershire not Warwickshire too