by Victor Meldrew »
17 Jan 2019 12:37
Snowball So the Derby win COULD give them a lift
OR
They could come down, do a version of after the Lord Mayor's Show
AND
They may, however slightly, be thinking of the fifth round (Accrington in the 4th)
AND
They are certainly not going to be 100% mentally fresh (small margins etc)
AND
However slightly, they will have some of Wednesday night tiredness in the legs
AND
They will have more niggles, aches and pains
I can't see any real way that Wednesday's extra-time isn't good for us.
It's not unusual to see sides doing well in the cup at the expense of league form
I think were were 50-50 before Wednesday. Now I'd say we have a definitely improved chance.
Just on your 50/50 the bookies still have it at around 62% probability that Derby will win.
You might be interested in backing Reading at 4/1 and/or the draw at 3/1.
Much as I would like to think the result of last night will be that Derby are tired and have niggling injuries the pessimist in me says that will be outweighed by the bonus of them winning against a Premier League side and now playing us at home-both of these are psychological advantages IMHO.
Having said all that, we have had some good results at Derby over the years, often unexpectedly so let's hope for the best on Saturday.