Following Grimsby’s exploits against Northampton last week, (and ha bloody ha to the obnoxious West London Cobbler – you know who you are), all the promotion places to next years Div one are known. Which means I can complete my latest offering concerning our prospects of a swift return to said Division. I’ve looked at all the relegations from Old Div 2/New Div 1 since 3up/3 down began back in 1973-74, and tried to track the progress of the poor sad bastards who’ve suffered the drop. It appears that we’re a typical team from this era!

And what has been their fate? Well,

 

 

That’s all very well I hear you ask, but how does all this affect the Royals!?!?! Put simply, it appears we have a 16.67% chance of bouncing back at the first attempt, based on stats of course, and ignoring Tommy Gun’s obvious skills at man management etc!! You want the proof? OK

 

On average, for those lucky 43 who have made it back, it takes just over four seasons, the best being 12 immediate returns as we’ve seen above, with the worst, or longest wait, being 13, 11 and 10 years for Swindon, Burnley and Bolton. 10 teams have had to taste Div4/3 soccer before returning to Div 1, including some pretty big names! Here’s hoping we’re not going to increase that list.

Of the 50 different teams suffering the 75 relegations from Div ½, it’s worth noting that 5 teams now reside in the Premiership, 16 are back where they started in Div 1, 16 are in Div 2, 14 are in Div 3, with poor old Hereford languishing in the Conference.

Since the start of the 90’s, it appears that fewer teams are getting back to Div 1, but those that do seem to be taking less time, if that makes sense! On average, since 1990, just over 1 team a year makes it back to Div 1, but usually does it in no more than 2 years! Will we bounce straight back up? I don’t think there’s any doubt do you?!?!?!?!