The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by NewCorkSeth » 23 Aug 2019 17:46

Snowflake Royal
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Snowflake Royal Maybe.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you floated this idea last season too?

I remember doing a big ling post about all relegated clubs from the last 10 years. It works out less than people assume. Maybe when I'm back from holiday I'll go through the squads of teams who did make it back up to see what (if any) academy or young players impressed and helped promotion.

Plenty of clubs come back within a few seasons and do very well.

I have a theory that established champ clubs, excluding financial basket cases, will do better in the medium term if they go down quickly. Having a better chance of bouncing back and then competing at the right end of the Championship. Than a club who perennially survives by a narrow margin over three or four seasons.

I'm also much more forgiving of Academy players struggling than watching yet another bunch of failed pros underperform. I think so much of making it in football is actually being trusted with an opportunity to play and that a relegation fight that's ultimately lost could be a superb learning experience for young players, with the right support. As a one off season I don't think it breeds too much of a losing culture, especially for players previously used to youth success who know a lot is being asked of them.

It's academic though, because we've made a bunch of signings and Gomes is leaning towards the miracle of turning around a shambolic club with a culture of failure baked in over most of the last six or seven years now.

I get the thought experiment. I really do but if you look at the actual historic evidence it holds no water. You say there is plenty clubs that come back after a few seasons but without double checking my previous post to this theory I think it was roughly 50% of clubs come back up within a few seasons and most were relegated again soon after.

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Snowflake Royal » 23 Aug 2019 18:28

NewCorkSeth
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NewCorkSeth Correct me if I'm wrong but you floated this idea last season too?

I remember doing a big ling post about all relegated clubs from the last 10 years. It works out less than people assume. Maybe when I'm back from holiday I'll go through the squads of teams who did make it back up to see what (if any) academy or young players impressed and helped promotion.

Plenty of clubs come back within a few seasons and do very well.

I have a theory that established champ clubs, excluding financial basket cases, will do better in the medium term if they go down quickly. Having a better chance of bouncing back and then competing at the right end of the Championship. Than a club who perennially survives by a narrow margin over three or four seasons.

I'm also much more forgiving of Academy players struggling than watching yet another bunch of failed pros underperform. I think so much of making it in football is actually being trusted with an opportunity to play and that a relegation fight that's ultimately lost could be a superb learning experience for young players, with the right support. As a one off season I don't think it breeds too much of a losing culture, especially for players previously used to youth success who know a lot is being asked of them.

It's academic though, because we've made a bunch of signings and Gomes is leaning towards the miracle of turning around a shambolic club with a culture of failure baked in over most of the last six or seven years now.

I get the thought experiment. I really do but if you look at the actual historic evidence it holds no water. You say there is plenty clubs that come back after a few seasons but without double checking my previous post to this theory I think it was roughly 50% of clubs come back up within a few seasons and most were relegated again soon after.


Did you just run all relegated clubs? Because if you did it's not a valid comparison IMO. You have to take into account different circumstances. I make no claim that all clubs have the same chance of getting back up. Things like:
- financial problems and points deductions
- how established in the division they're relegated from they are
- how many seasons of struggle preceded the relegation

For example, if you give equal weighting to Yeovil and Norwich, it's meaningless for what I'm talking about.

Also, watching your club win games is better than watching your club lose games for the most part. It's going to be a more enjoyable season finishing 14th in L1, than 21st in the Championship. I don't expect everyone to agree with me on that though.

And as I say, academic.

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 23 Aug 2019 18:37

Line-up at West Ham tonight
Andresson
Odimayo
Osho
Coleman
Obita
Holmes
Howe
Tetek
Liddle
Olise
Nevers
subs
Boyce-Clarke
Burley
Trialist
Elva-Fountaine
Medford-Smith

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Hound » 23 Aug 2019 18:46

Hopefully Obita can last the 90 and give us another option down that left flank (as well as being great to see him back playing)

Be lovely if he made the Plymouth game

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by NewCorkSeth » 23 Aug 2019 18:59

Snowflake Royal
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Snowflake Royal Plenty of clubs come back within a few seasons and do very well.

I have a theory that established champ clubs, excluding financial basket cases, will do better in the medium term if they go down quickly. Having a better chance of bouncing back and then competing at the right end of the Championship. Than a club who perennially survives by a narrow margin over three or four seasons.

I'm also much more forgiving of Academy players struggling than watching yet another bunch of failed pros underperform. I think so much of making it in football is actually being trusted with an opportunity to play and that a relegation fight that's ultimately lost could be a superb learning experience for young players, with the right support. As a one off season I don't think it breeds too much of a losing culture, especially for players previously used to youth success who know a lot is being asked of them.

It's academic though, because we've made a bunch of signings and Gomes is leaning towards the miracle of turning around a shambolic club with a culture of failure baked in over most of the last six or seven years now.

I get the thought experiment. I really do but if you look at the actual historic evidence it holds no water. You say there is plenty clubs that come back after a few seasons but without double checking my previous post to this theory I think it was roughly 50% of clubs come back up within a few seasons and most were relegated again soon after.


Did you just run all relegated clubs? Because if you did it's not a valid comparison IMO. You have to take into account different circumstances. I make no claim that all clubs have the same chance of getting back up. Things like:
- financial problems and points deductions
- how established in the division they're relegated from they are
- how many seasons of struggle preceded the relegation

For example, if you give equal weighting to Yeovil and Norwich, it's meaningless for what I'm talking about.

Also, watching your club win games is better than watching your club lose games for the most part. It's going to be a more enjoyable season finishing 14th in L1, than 21st in the Championship. I don't expect everyone to agree with me on that though.

And as I say, academic.

Found it. It was in next seasons squad.


"2004-2005
Gillingham, Forest, Rotherham - Luton, Hull, Sheffield Wed
2005-2006
Crewe, Millwall, Brighton - Southend, Colchester, Barnsley
2006-2007
Southend, Luton, Leeds - Scunthorpe, Bristol, Blackpool
2007-2008
Leicester, Scunthorpe, Colchester - Swansea, Forest, Doncaster
2008-2009
Norwich, Southampton, Charlton - Leicester, Peterborough, Scunthorpe
2009-2010
Sheffield Wed, Plymouth, Peterborough - Norwich, Leeds, Millwall
2010-2011
Preston, Sheffield United, Scunthorpe - Brighton, Southampton, Peterborough
2011-2012
Portsmouth, Coventry, Doncaster - Charlton, Sheffield Wed, Huddersfield
2012-2013
Peterborough, Wolves, Bristol City - Doncaster, Bournemouth, Yeovil
2013-2014
Doncaster, Barnsley, Yeovil - Wolves, Brentford, Rotherham
2014-2015
Millwall, Wigan, Blackpool - Bristol, MK Don's, Preston
2015-2016
Charlton, MK Don's, Bolton - Wigan, Burton, Barnsley
2016-2017
Blackburn, Wigan, Rotherham - Sheffield United, Bolton, Millwall

Gillingham - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 twice since.
Forest - 3 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up since.
Rotherham - 9 season to be promoted back, relegated to league 2 once in that time, relegated again after 3 seasons.
Crewe - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 twice since.
Millwall - 4 season to be promoted back, relegated again after 5 seasons.
Brighton - 5 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up and promoted since.
Southend - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 once since.
*Luton - Never promoted back, double relegated the following seasons after.
Leeds - 3 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up since.
Leicester - 1 season to be promoted back, stayed up and promoted since.
Scunthorpe - 1 season to be promoted back, stayed up 2 seasons, relegated to league 2 since.
Colchester - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 since
Norwich - Double promotion season after. 
Southampton - 1 season to be promoted back, double promotion season after.
Charlton - 3 seasons to be promoted back, relegated after 4 seasons
Sheffield Wed - 2 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up since.
Plymouth - Never promoted back, relegated the season after.
Peterborough - 1 season to be promoted back, stayed up for 2 seasons.
Preston - 4 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up since.
Sheffield United - 6 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up since
Portsmouth - Never promoted back, double relegation season after.
Coventry - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 once since.
Doncaster - 1 season to be promoted back, stayed up for 1 season, relegated to league 2 once since.
Wolves - 1 season to be promoted back, stayed up and promoted since.
Bristol City - 2 seasons to be promoted back, stayed up since.
Barnsley - 2 seasons to be promoted back, relegated again after 2 season.
Yeovil - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 once since.
Wigan - 1 season to be promoted back, relegated after 1 season, promoted again, relegated again. True yo-yo club.
Blackpool - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 once since. 
MK Dons - Never promoted back, relegated to league 2 once since. 
Bolton - 1 season to be promoted back.
Blackburn - 1 season to be promoted back.

So thats 11 teams (including Luton) yet to be promoted back out of 39, 13 have been relegated to league 2 after being relegated from the Championship and 10 have been relegated since being re-promoted.

Only 10 teams out of 39 have come back up and not been relegated yet. 

oxf*rd this takes a long time to verify"

I promise to run through each clubs finances when I get back from holiday as well as their squads. Think a few like Southampton for example had money pumped in after relegation.

Leeds jumps out as a club of a larger stature than us who were relegated for 3 seasons. That didnt do them much good..


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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 23 Aug 2019 19:22

West Ham 1 Reading 0 18mins
H-T 2-0

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by SCIAG » 23 Aug 2019 20:06

I can think of one example that really supports Ian's theory - Southampton. But after they got relegated they signed the likes of Rickie Lambert, Jason Puncheon and Jose Fonte to go with Surman, Lallana, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Schneiderlin. In other words, they're about as representative of the "typical" relegated club as Portsmouth or Bolton.

Agree with winch that while it is doable, it is a bad idea that is more likely to result in relegation than promotion.

Think this formation change has benefitted McIntyre but totally screwed over Barrett, Loader, and Olise. The 4-2-2-2 we used over the summer was based around those three being three of our five best attackers, and it aimed to play to their strengths. Now that we have more options, they don't need to be catered to - which will make it harder for them to get in the side. If Ejaria or Swift get injured then East or Holsgrove or Lawless would be a better option on the bench.

Someone mentioned to what extent a player getting picked is luck - a huge extent. Tom Holmes' appearance was luck. His exclusion from this summer's tour was also luck. Liam Kelly's career with us was luck, Aaron Kuhl's non-career with us was luck. McIntyre getting injured when Stam wanted to pick him was luck, getting injured on debut was luck, him suddenly finding himself in the first team this summer was luck, the ten centre backs we had aged 18-23 at the club three years ago all failing to establish themselves was luck. But he is also genuinely better than them.

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by KentRoyal » 23 Aug 2019 20:10

Anyone know who the trialist is?

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Snowflake Royal » 23 Aug 2019 20:13

SCIAG I can think of one example that really supports Ian's theory - Southampton. But after they got relegated they signed the likes of Rickie Lambert, Jason Puncheon and Jose Fonte to go with Surman, Lallana, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Schneiderlin. In other words, they're about as representative of the "typical" relegated club as Portsmouth or Bolton.

Agree with winch that while it is doable, it is a bad idea that is more likely to result in relegation than promotion.

Think this formation change has benefitted McIntyre but totally screwed over Barrett, Loader, and Olise. The 4-2-2-2 we used over the summer was based around those three being three of our five best attackers, and it aimed to play to their strengths. Now that we have more options, they don't need to be catered to - which will make it harder for them to get in the side. If Ejaria or Swift get injured then East or Holsgrove or Lawless would be a better option on the bench.

Someone mentioned to what extent a player getting picked is luck - a huge extent. Tom Holmes' appearance was luck. His exclusion from this summer's tour was also luck. Liam Kelly's career with us was luck, Aaron Kuhl's non-career with us was luck. McIntyre getting injured when Stam wanted to pick him was luck, getting injured on debut was luck, him suddenly finding himself in the first team this summer was luck, the ten centre backs we had aged 18-23 at the club three years ago all failing to establish themselves was luck. But he is also genuinely better than them.

TBF the theory isn't academy player based, that's just an 'how awesome would that be'

Norwich are an example of someone who had about one duff season, went down, bounced back and iirc continued straight back into the PL. Anyway, don't want to hijack the thread, so will shutup.


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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 23 Aug 2019 20:14

3-0

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 23 Aug 2019 20:18

KentRoyal Anyone know who the trialist is?

R Balde= Romario Balde Portugese 22 years old

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Hound » 23 Aug 2019 20:28

Royals and Racers 3-0


Going well then

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 23 Aug 2019 20:30

Flash score are saying we have taken off an outfield player and put Boyce-Clark on- got to be wrong surely !!!
Obita went off on 68 mins


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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by NewCorkSeth » 23 Aug 2019 20:43

Royals and Racers Flash score are saying we have taken off an outfield player and put Boyce-Clark on- got to be wrong surely !!!
Obita went off on 68 mins

Maybe CBC is expanding his talents to the outfield positions?

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 23 Aug 2019 20:55

F-T 3-0

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Royals and Racers » 24 Aug 2019 20:19

U18`s lost 2-0 at Fulham this morning.

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by windermereROYAL » 26 Aug 2019 00:04

Andrija Novakovich is in talks with PEC Zwolle.

He was in the crowd for their 2-2 draw with Sparta today

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Ranty McRantface » 26 Aug 2019 08:29

windermereROYAL Andrija Novakovich is in talks with PEC Zwolle.

He was in the crowd for their 2-2 draw with Sparta today


As much as I feel sorry for him and hoped he would get the opportunity he's been patiently waiting for, I'm glad he's going to be playing a decent level somewhere else. The poor lad has not been given a fair crack here. Assuming the talks go well I hope we have a sell on clause for his transfer.

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Stranded » 26 Aug 2019 09:39

Ranty McRantface
windermereROYAL Andrija Novakovich is in talks with PEC Zwolle.

He was in the crowd for their 2-2 draw with Sparta today


As much as I feel sorry for him and hoped he would get the opportunity he's been patiently waiting for, I'm glad he's going to be playing a decent level somewhere else. The poor lad has not been given a fair crack here. Assuming the talks go well I hope we have a sell on clause for his transfer.


Whilst I have some sympathy with this view, I've never quite understood. He has had the same crack as any other player who trains at a football club. He was asked to go on loan but the performance he has put in simply haven't impressed multiple managers so he hasn't been selected. He has the ability to score goals but maybe his game is just not set for English football - the Dutch environment may well be the perfect fit for him. I wish him well if this comes off but he IMHO he is just as likely to have an OK career playing for a few mid-table Dutch sides before a move back to the MLS than he is going on to be one that we feel we made a mistake on.

If he was ever going to make it here, he would have been retained when he went to Fortuna - as soon as that loan went through, he was essentially gone.

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Re: The Academy/Development squads watch thread 2015//16

by Snowflake Royal » 26 Aug 2019 10:44

Plenty good enough to be given a chance, especially in years when we really struggled for strikers.

Baldock and McNulty? Could have been a cheaper option for either and wouldn't have been much worse.

Obviously supplanted by Puscas, and probably Joao in terms of quality now. But we really could and should have used him more.

I don't like seeing good Academy products leave without breaking into the first team at the best of times. It's understandable if there's a lot of quality competition in their position. But so often for the ones we've let go in recent years they've played in positions where our options were shit and expensive.

As we see with many of our breakthrough players, it's the time in the first team that tell you whether they're good enough, not training and youth games.

Loader seemed superb and a favourite for success, but his first team performances have been distinctly mediocre.

Rinomhota and Cooper got chances in injury crises and established themselves despite not being the most highly rated and anticipated players in their age group. Without those crises it's doubtful they'd have got the same chance and probably would have been let go without breaking through.

Stacey, easily could have been trusted with game time he didn't get.
Last edited by Snowflake Royal on 26 Aug 2019 10:46, edited 1 time in total.

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