Rival Watch

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Stranded
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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 23 May 2022 08:53

NathStPaul
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Hound That’s really shit for Burnley tbh. They were a well run club until the takeover - what has gone on there? They’ve hardly blown the lot on signings - in fact I can’t see a player they’ve bought for anything about 10m there but maybe wrong

If they really do have to pay back 100m quid and with the number of players they have out of contract - again don’t see a lot they can sell - they’ll struggle to go back up


The new owners purchased the club using a leveraged buyout - similar in the way the Glazers bought Manchester United. In order to get the funds they had to tie this to future earnings, naturally if they were still in the PL that would be no issue at all but the lenders know if they remain outside the PL for any period of time, there is a major risk to ever getting their money back hence the clause that if they dropped out they would be liable for a large amount, 65m, relatively quickly.

It does look like it is not due right now, but by the end of the "debt period" which can best be described as the end of the season. So they really have to go up next year or they are in major strife.

They have Pope, McNeil and Cornet who are all sellable assets, reckon they'd get near £65m for those three alone. With the first parachute payment on top of that I would imagine they would be ok when it came to the first payment. It of course screws them for the future though, can see them being a Preston North End for years to come.


They do but it's no secret that they need the cash, so can see a lot of clubs lowballing them. For example, they want 30m for Pope apparently. Can see them only getting bids for half that much as they will be in a relatively weak bargaining position.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 23 May 2022 08:54

I can't see Burnley going up for potentially another decade to be honest.

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Re: Rival Watch

by NathStPaul » 23 May 2022 08:57

In truth until day 1 of the 2022/23 season it is impossible to predict anything with any certainty. Who would have predicted Luton getting in the playoffs and very nearly making the final? Not many. Of course we have an idea that Norwich and Watford will be strong but I don't think they are as strong as Bournemouth and Fulham were this season. It will be pretty open next season I reckon at both ends of the table.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 23 May 2022 09:06

I think you can have a rough estimate of who could or "should" be in what positions. You'd expect that the likes of Norwich, Watford, Sheff United, West Brom and Burnley will all be in and around the promotion/play off positions, then you've got the likes of Middlesbrough, QPR and Millwall who may end up there or thereabouts in the play off chase as well.

At the bottom, it's likely to be everyone from Bristol City down again who will be in some sort of "trouble" next season, then anyone with a points deduction, if there are any teams that suffer that fate.

Agree with the point in principle, it's obviously tough to predict. I.e. I think at least one of the 5 aforementioned teams going for promotion won't be anywhere near next season, similar to West Brom this season. I wouldn't like to say who though.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 23 May 2022 09:09

Norwich chum thinks they're weaker than in previous seasons and won't bounce back.

If Burnley really are in that much shit financially, and without Dyche, they should struggle.

Watford will presumably be up there again.

Hard to see Luton continuing to compete, or the loser of Huddersfield or Forest.

My picks for the top six at this crazy early point are

Watford
Sheff Utd
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Sunderland
Norwich

But yeah looks pretty open.


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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 23 May 2022 09:13

Sounds like Sheff U, WBA and Burnley will all be under some financial pressure to get back up due to high wages and the parachutes being lowered for the latter 2

Do think Norwich and Watford will be back up there. Though some of Norwich’s banker players like Pukki starting to knock on a bit. But they’ve been sensible with their money and will reinvest

Sunderland could get some momentum but lack quality at the moment. Other promoted clubs likely to be bottom 5 I reckon

Would expect us, Brum, Bristol, PNE and maybe Stoke to be struggling near the bottom

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Re: Rival Watch

by NathStPaul » 23 May 2022 09:16

I think two of the sides coming up from League 1 are relatively strong, will make things interesting at the bottom. Sunderland should be ok and able to attract players, Wigan seemingly can spend a bit but Rotherham will likely stink things up again.

They'll be a few of the bigger current Championship sides a bit worried next season, there won't be a side starting on -20 points either. Got to think Birmingham will be down there along with us and Bristol City. Blackpool over achieved this season and I don't think will be nearly as strong, Blackburn are going through a period of change. Going to be tight at both ends.

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Re: Rival Watch

by paultheroyal » 23 May 2022 09:35

For what its worth and as an opinion...

Norwich and Burnley will be very poor. Norwich nowhere near the team they came down with last time, Burnley are toast. Best players going, financial uncertainly, poor recruitment on horizon. Luton wont repeat what they achieved last time.

Sunderland will get a double bounce and wont be far away. "on paper" its incredibly open.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 23 May 2022 09:44

I'm not so sure Sunderland will be near promotion, although it depends on how they recruit really during this summer. If they can bring a host of good quality in, I think they should do fine, possibly top half at best though.

Rotherham I think will go back down, but after that I can't say with confidence which two of the other maybe 7, 8 or 9 sides might drop.

Hull and Wigan aren't great sides, our season depends on what our squad looks like come the end of the window, Bristol City seem to be losing their way a bit and a threat of points deductions, Birmingham look very poor but you never know who they will recruit, Cardiff seem to be doing their business early and possibly a sign they are on the up but could well fall near again etc.

There are others such as Stoke (who have been mentioned) and I'd maybe say Huddersfield it they aren't promoted who may end up near the bottom of the league as there is a bit of uncertainty regarding a takeover there and seemingly need either a) promotion or b) new investment.


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Re: Rival Watch

by NathStPaul » 23 May 2022 09:48

Are we the most Southern club in the league next season?

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Re: Rival Watch

by windermereROYAL » 23 May 2022 09:57

Take away that Derby team that amassed just 11 points and I think this Norwich team are the worse to ever play in the PL, I`m not sure if Pukki is OOC or not but surely he will be on his bike.
With the current team they are not running away with the league again, almost certainly top 8 though.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 23 May 2022 09:57

NathStPaul Are we the most Southern club in the league next season?


Pretty close run thing with Bristol and QPR I reckon (maybe Cardiff as well)

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 23 May 2022 09:57

NathStPaul Are we the most Southern club in the league next season?


Only two I can think of are Bristol City and Cardiff potentially.


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Re: Rival Watch

by NathStPaul » 23 May 2022 10:04

I make it that the SCL is very slightly south of Ashton Gate. I think we have won the award for "Most Southern Championship Club 2022/23". It is better than nothing.

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Re: Rival Watch

by LUX » 23 May 2022 10:04

Millwall?

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Re: Rival Watch

by LUX » 23 May 2022 10:06

very close, but SCL edges it I think.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 23 May 2022 10:12

oxf*rd it, let's have a laugh and ridiculously try and predict the final table.

1 Watford
2 Sheff Utd
---------------------------
3 Middlesbrough P
4 West Brom
5 Sunderland
6 Norwich
--------------------------
7 QPR
8 Swansea
9 Burnley
10 Blackburn
11 Preston
12 Coventry
13 Huddersfield / Forest
14 Millwall
15 Wigan
16 Luton
17 Blackpool
18 Stoke
19 Cardiff
20 Reading
21 Rotherham
------------------------
22 Birmingham
23 Hull
24 Bristol C

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Re: Rival Watch

by NathStPaul » 23 May 2022 10:15

Might have a little flutter on Swansea to go up next season, only a couple of players away from being a really good side.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 23 May 2022 10:18

Sunderland - Bristol City I believe is the longest away journey in terms of miles is it? Of is it Sunderland - Swansea?

Very bold Ian saying none of the promoted sides will go down, I like it. For me, I'll go:

1. Watford
2. Norwich
3. West Brom P
4. Sheff United
5. QPR
6. Burnley
7. Middlesbrough
8. Millwall
9. Blackburn
10. Swansea
11. Coventry
12. Luton
13. Sunderland
14. Blackpool
15. Preston
16. Stoke
17. Cardiff
18. Huddersfield
19. Reading
20. Hull
21. Bristol City
22. Wigan
23. Birmingham
24. Rotherham

Obviously I've got Forest going up. If not, Forest would be in the play offs again for me.

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Re: Rival Watch

by NathStPaul » 23 May 2022 10:20

I will run a final league table contest just before the season starts with great prizes.

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