Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Snowflake Royal » 11 Feb 2018 11:09

leon
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Snowflake Royal We're certainly in a fight to stay up and things are looking bad. But currently we are the ones with the points in the board. Four teams have to overhaul us for us to go down.

Even at our recent shittest we've matched points with Burton and Sunderland over the last six games. Hull and Barnsley have gained just 1 point on us in the same period.

It looks pretty certain Bolton and Brum will ease past us, but who cares? That won't relegate us. We basically need a point a game, possibly even less. Win one of the next three and we're achieving that. Forest are very beatable and we've had almost as many wins against good sides as shit, so something surprising could happen.

I'd rather be us than Hull or Barnsley right now. Certainly than Sunderland or Burton.

I'd put us about 70/30 to stay up right now. Lose to Forest and have most of the four below us pick up points and I think you have to say it drops to about 50/50.

It's squeeky bum time, but it's not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination.

The only thing the fans can do to help is to loudly back the players during the game. Confidence is so shot to buggery I'm not sure a change of management is anything like sure to bring an improvement.

But if you do want to act to get Stam out. Do it AFTER the game. Not during. Of course, you'd have to actually stay to the end for that wouldn't you.


Spot on post. Great assessment of our present situation


Disagree. I actually go to games. As ever IR criticises the fans not the manager.

The fact that ANYONE turns up to games shows the resilience of the fans.

Which bit do you disagree with? How do disagree with it and why?

What do you think the fans can do that will have almost no negative impact and possibly a positive one?

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Snowball » 11 Feb 2018 11:14

To a neutral 8-1 or 9-1 against Reading, based on their poor and worsening form and their injuries, is a hell of a good bet.

Elphick's absence is probably 3-4 more goals conceded if he's only out six weeks, and then he has to blend in and get back to full fitness


Personally (and not just wishful thinking) I think we will stay up.

I think we'll probably stay up if we get just 12-13 points from now (44-45)

I think we will only need 47 at the finish to be 95-100% certain of staying up

Here is a table of the relegated teams (points-wise)

29 44 50 2004-05
38 40 42 2005-06
36 40 42 2006-07
38 46 52 2007-08
39 45 46 2008-09
34 41 47 2009-10
42 42 42 2010-11
36 40 40 2011-12
41 51 54 2012-13
37 39 44 2013-14
26 39 41 2014-15
30 39 40 2015-16
23 42 51 2016-17


So what about those times teams went down with 50-51-52-54?

Well for Reading to go down with 50 requires this

READING 50 1.06 points per game

Wednesday to manage almost exactly a post per game (OK that's likely/possible)

Bolton 50 1.11 ppg (on current form, yes, they'll manage this, but 1-2 defeats and their bubble could burst)

Birmingham 50 1.11 ppg as Bolton

Now these four...

Nothing is impossible, but TWO of these have to do this to get to 50

1.40 ppg HULL
1.29 ppg BARNSLEY
1.60 ppg Sunderland
1.67 ppg BURTON

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genome
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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by genome » 11 Feb 2018 11:17

I think after the next four games we will have a better idea.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by leon » 11 Feb 2018 11:22

Snowflake Royal
leon
paddy20
Spot on post. Great assessment of our present situation


Disagree. I actually go to games. As ever IR criticises the fans not the manager.

The fact that ANYONE turns up to games shows the resilience of the fans.

Which bit do you disagree with? How do disagree with it and why?

What do you think the fans can do that will have almost no negative impact and possibly a positive one?


It’s not the fans fault. It’s Stams and the players.

Booing, leaving, not turning up, waving pants. We’ve earnt the right to do whatever we want.

Slavish sycophancy will not save us. This team cannot play coherent football, cannot execute any sort of plan. The managers told us that on numerous occasions.

Desperate times.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Snowball » 11 Feb 2018 11:35

genome I think after the next four games we will have a better idea.


Especially vis-a-vis Barnsley's chances. They play close rivals in their next four games

20 Feb Barnsley v Burton
24 Feb Birmingham v Barnsley
27 Feb Hull v Barnsley
03 Mar Barnsley v Norwich


also

Forest v Barnsley
Barnsley v Bolton

=============================================


HULL

Home Sheffield Utd, Millwall, Villa, QPR, Cardiff

Away Boro, Ipswich, Wolves, Brentford


PLUS

Hull v Barnsley
Birmingham v Hull
Burton v Hull
Hull v Wednesday



===================================================


SUNDERLAND

Home to Brentford, Boro, Villa, Preston, WOLVES

Away to Brentford, Millwall, Derby, Leeds, Fulham


PLUS

Bolton v Sunderland
QPR v Sunderland
Sunderland v Wednesday
READING v Sunderland
Sunderland v Burton


=====================================================

BARNSLEY

Home to Millwall, Bristol

Away at Cardiff, Boro, Ipswich, Leeds, Brentford

PLUS

Birmingham v Barnsley
Barnsley v Burton
Hull v Barnsley
Barnsley v Norwich
Forest v Barnsley
Barnsley v Bolton


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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Snowflake Royal » 11 Feb 2018 12:20

leon
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Disagree. I actually go to games. As ever IR criticises the fans not the manager.

The fact that ANYONE turns up to games shows the resilience of the fans.

Which bit do you disagree with? How do disagree with it and why?

What do you think the fans can do that will have almost no negative impact and possibly a positive one?


It’s not the fans fault. It’s Stams and the players.

Booing, leaving, not turning up, waving pants. We’ve earnt the right to do whatever we want.

Slavish sycophancy will not save us. This team cannot play coherent football, cannot execute any sort of plan. The managers told us that on numerous occasions.

Desperate times.

I've never said it's the fans' fault. I've criticised Stam and the players plenty. I have said the fans aren't helping though, and that they would do more good by being loud amd supportive DURING games. Having the right to do something doesn't mean doing it is productive or helpful.

When you look at our truly abysmal home form and that our results and performances seem to be better away, you have to consider that maybe the fans are contributing to that.

Who is asking for slavish sycophancy? It's not sycophantic to encourage your team. It's certainly not sycophantic to encourage the team DURING the game and then boo and chant Stam out at the end.

Perhaps pay attention to what I actually said before disagreeing, rather than doing so for the sake of it.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by leon » 11 Feb 2018 13:42

Snowflake Royal
leon
Snowflake Royal Which bit do you disagree with? How do disagree with it and why?

What do you think the fans can do that will have almost no negative impact and possibly a positive one?


It’s not the fans fault. It’s Stams and the players.

Booing, leaving, not turning up, waving pants. We’ve earnt the right to do whatever we want.

Slavish sycophancy will not save us. This team cannot play coherent football, cannot execute any sort of plan. The managers told us that on numerous occasions.

Desperate times.

I've never said it's the fans' fault. I've criticised Stam and the players plenty. I have said the fans aren't helping though, and that they would do more good by being loud amd supportive DURING games. Having the right to do something doesn't mean doing it is productive or helpful.

When you look at our truly abysmal home form and that our results and performances seem to be better away, you have to consider that maybe the fans are contributing to that.

Who is asking for slavish sycophancy? It's not sycophantic to encourage your team. It's certainly not sycophantic to encourage the team DURING the game and then boo and chant Stam out at the end.

Perhaps pay attention to what I actually said before disagreeing, rather than doing so for the sake of it.


I’m still laughing at irony of that last statement.

Our away form hardly proves that our fans at home are causing issues. We’re shit home and away.

They’ve been extremely patient.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Jackson Corner » 11 Feb 2018 13:57

We have no chance of staying up. One win in eleven that against the bottom team. We average 3 shots on target each game. Confidence is shot, even if a new manager came in it would make no difference. To think most of those players are on 20 to 30k a week Staggering

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by blythspartan » 11 Feb 2018 14:29

Based on current form, we will only survive if there are 3 worse teams than us. I think Burton will probably go down but I can't say that we won't be joining them.

As mentioned previously on this topic the next 4 games will be crucial. Personally, I don't see us getting more that 2 points from those games.

It just has the feel of a relegation season, which is what's worrying me and we are such a poor team at the moment.


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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by AthleticoSpizz » 11 Feb 2018 14:58

Well, whatever happens, we will be relegated, or we will stay up (lol)

Either way, it’s been a p1ss poor season....the next one will be better......I’m sure

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by CountryRoyal » 11 Feb 2018 22:35

AthleticoSpizz Well, whatever happens, we will be relegated, or we will stay up (lol)

Either way, it’s been a p1ss poor season....the next one will be better......I’m sure


Or it won't. :D

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Snowball » 11 Feb 2018 22:38

Burton to finish bottom at 2/3 seems amazing odds.

For all the doom-mongers (AKA Realists) you can get 9-1 for Reading to go down

Those are FABULOUS odds, because they are on track to be bottom four at best

Interesting that Wednesday (just two points above Reading) are TWENTY-to-One to go down

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Snowball » 11 Feb 2018 22:41

CountryRoyal
AthleticoSpizz Well, whatever happens, we will be relegated, or we will stay up (lol)

Either way, it’s been a p1ss poor season....the next one will be better......I’m sure


Or it won't. :D


I have no "logical" reason for this, but I think if Stam stays and we stay up, even as low as fourth bottom,
next year we'll go up automatic


Didn't that more-or-less happen to Brighton?



PS Of course, we might go down.

On this, IF we came straight back up, I think it might well "re-set" the club. We'd have a season of lots of victories and excitement, and then do well in the Championship.


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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by CountryRoyal » 11 Feb 2018 23:50

Snowball
CountryRoyal
AthleticoSpizz Well, whatever happens, we will be relegated, or we will stay up (lol)

Either way, it’s been a p1ss poor season....the next one will be better......I’m sure


Or it won't. :D


I have no "logical" reason for this, but I think if Stam stays and we stay up, even as low as fourth bottom,
next year we'll go up automatic


Didn't that more-or-less happen to Brighton?



PS Of course, we might go down.

On this, IF we came straight back up, I think it might well "re-set" the club. We'd have a season of lots of victories and excitement, and then do well in the Championship.


No, the year before Brighton went up automatically they finished... 3rd.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Dennis the Butler » 12 Feb 2018 08:45

We may just survive but imo it will be down to luck, nothing else ..

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by John Smith » 12 Feb 2018 09:45

To all the stattos, to all the doubters, to all the boo boys:

We will not get relegated. This is because there are more than 3 teams worse than us in the league that will have a lower points total come game 46.

It's really that simple.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Old Man Andrews » 12 Feb 2018 09:54

John Smith To all the stattos, to all the doubters, to all the boo boys:

We will not get relegated. This is because there are more than 3 teams worse than us in the league that will have a lower points total come game 46.

It's really that simple.


Whilst I agree we won't go down when all is said and done at this moment in time when we need points there is nobody worse than us in the league, that is my concern. We need to keep picking up the odd point here and there and right now it looks like an impossible task.

I think Sunderland showed some fight at the weekend to come back from 3-0 down at Bristol City, could really kick start their season. Could you see us coming back from 3-0? No chance as the players we have do not have it in them.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by John Smith » 12 Feb 2018 10:09

Old Man Andrews
John Smith To all the stattos, to all the doubters, to all the boo boys:

We will not get relegated. This is because there are more than 3 teams worse than us in the league that will have a lower points total come game 46.

It's really that simple.


Whilst I agree we won't go down when all is said and done at this moment in time when we need points there is nobody worse than us in the league, that is my concern. We need to keep picking up the odd point here and there and right now it looks like an impossible task.

I think Sunderland showed some fight at the weekend to come back from 3-0 down at Bristol City, could really kick start their season. Could you see us coming back from 3-0? No chance as the players we have do not have it in them.

Sunderland are 6 points behind us with a far inferior goal difference. This means they'd have to win two and draw one game, for us to lose three, to pull ahead.

Even if that were to happen there's Bolton, Birmingham and the biggest pile of dross that is Hull City below us.

Take a chill pill and wait for summer. We can sort everything out then.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by strap » 12 Feb 2018 10:42

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Zip I think we will scrape survival but to suggest with certainty that we won’t go down is idiotic.


Unless we improve we are going down. If anyone can see from where and when this improvement is likely to materialise, feel free to enlighten the rest of us.,


Spot on. End of thread.

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Re: Who still thinks Reading will avoid relegation...

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 12 Feb 2018 20:19

I think we'll stay up because Beerens is just the type of player we want to leave the club, and Martin is just the type of player we want to join the club. I agree the Ekphick injury doesnt help, but this seems like a bit of business that could make a difference. There is an awful lot of fuss following a defeat on the furthest Away game of the season. Stam has weathered the Birmingham, Burton and Millwall results, he's here until the end of the season. He'll finish in the late teens.


leon
Slavish sycophancy will not save us. This team cannot play coherent football, cannot execute any sort of plan. The managers told us that on numerous occasions.

Desperate times.


Well, exactly.
What is being overlooked in the whole 'fans who turn up and dont criticise the team are the true fans' nonsense is that sycohpancy is simply enabling a poor regime. We need to start raising our standards

Some Tool We will not get relegated. This is because there are more than 3 teams worse than us in the league that will have a lower points total come game 46.


Hoping three teams are worse than you is the purest antithesis of sport. Is that where we are?

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