BFTG - Ipshit H

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NewCorkSeth
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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by NewCorkSeth » 13 Nov 2018 08:56

Snowball
Six-game blocks are a COMMON way of viewing progress, also form

In terms of points per game, the three blocks show clear and unambigous improvement and that is FACT.


I didn't want to disturb your argument but this has kept me up all night. Is it really that simple?

I just mean that if we won the first 2 games of a 6 game block then drew the 6th we would be on that 1.16 ppg track but going 4 games without a win would surely make a difference to our form? Right?

I guess I just don't understand how you can equate ppg from 6 game blocks to form. Especially when the use of 6 games to show form on all betting and stat websites uses the immediate last 6 games rather than the blocks we are now using.

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by stealthpapes » 13 Nov 2018 09:54

leon That was a painful page of material.


on the last post of the page, there is

the correct stat-wank oiling the wheels of faith


almost redeems it all

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 13 Nov 2018 10:33

NewCorkSeth
Snowball
Six-game blocks are a COMMON way of viewing progress, also form

In terms of points per game, the three blocks show clear and unambigous improvement and that is FACT.


I didn't want to disturb your argument but this has kept me up all night. Is it really that simple?

I just mean that if we won the first 2 games of a 6 game block then drew the 6th we would be on that 1.16 ppg track but going 4 games without a win would surely make a difference to our form? Right?

I guess I just don't understand how you can equate ppg from 6 game blocks to form. Especially when the use of 6 games to show form on all betting and stat websites uses the immediate last 6 games rather than the blocks we are now using.



Well, first, WWLLLD is THREE defeats on the trot, not four, and a season of that would accrue at least 53 points, more likely 54, near-certain safety.

CURRENT form is commonly shown from the last six games, yes, so it is a moving average.

I used this 6-6-5 because CLEMENT has been doing it, talking in terms which clearly show he has been using the blocks as targets or markers.

Put it another way after six games our current form was 0.2 ppg

After 12 games our current form was 1.16 ppg

And our current form for this six games (1 game to go) is 1.4 ppg. If we beat Wigan our current form will be 1.67

Even if we lose it will be 1.16 for six games AND 1.16 for TWELVE games

If we draw we finish this six on 1.33 and will have had a 12-game haul 15 points

As I keep saying it is our opening six that distorts perceptions

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by NewCorkSeth » 13 Nov 2018 10:47

Snowball
NewCorkSeth
Snowball
Six-game blocks are a COMMON way of viewing progress, also form

In terms of points per game, the three blocks show clear and unambigous improvement and that is FACT.


I didn't want to disturb your argument but this has kept me up all night. Is it really that simple?

I just mean that if we won the first 2 games of a 6 game block then drew the 6th we would be on that 1.16 ppg track but going 4 games without a win would surely make a difference to our form? Right?

I guess I just don't understand how you can equate ppg from 6 game blocks to form. Especially when the use of 6 games to show form on all betting and stat websites uses the immediate last 6 games rather than the blocks we are now using.



Well, first, WWLLLD is THREE defeats on the trot, not four, and a season of that would accrue at least 53 points, more likely 54, near-certain safety.

CURRENT form is commonly shown from the last six games, yes, so it is a moving average.

I used this 6-6-5 because CLEMENT has been doing it, talking in terms which clearly show he has been using the blocks as targets or markers.

Put it another way after six games our current form was 0.2 ppg

After 12 games our current form was 1.16 ppg

And our current form for this six games (1 game to go) is 1.4 ppg. If we beat Wigan our current form will be 1.67

Even if we lose it will be 1.16 for six games AND 1.16 for TWELVE games

If we draw we finish this six on 1.33 and will have had a 12-game haul 15 points

As I keep saying it is our opening six that distorts perceptions

To be clear I said 4 games without a win.. not 4 games lost in a row.

My point was more that, despite Clement planning in 6 games blocks, we shouldn't use those as an indicator of form as it's far more common to use the last 6 games.

I have found that number of games since last win and number of games since last loss are far more reasonable indicators of form than ppg.

Under my 6 game block example we would go into the next 6 games having not won in 4 games and having lost as recently as 1 game ago. That would be terrible form despite being decent ppg.

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 13 Nov 2018 11:42

My mistake, sorry.

Incidentally, games 10-15 were four defeats,
QPR, WBA, Birmingham and Swansea,
a win (Millwall) and a draw at Brentford

so I guess that predicted we were doomed.

Here is the six game moving average
starting at Game 6

2-5-5-8-8-7-7-7-7-4-6-7

(the blip was games 10-15, a very tough run)

The 12-Game Moving Average (starting at WBA)

is 9-12-12-12-14-14

(14 points in 12 over a season is 54 points)

in other words, we are getting better, a lot better than 2 points in our first six gamesr!


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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by NewCorkSeth » 13 Nov 2018 11:54

Snowball My mistake, sorry.

Incidentally, games 10-15 were four defeats,
QPR, WBA, Birmingham and Swansea,
a win (Millwall) and a draw at Brentford

so I guess that predicted we were doomed.

Here is the six game moving average
starting at Game 6

2-5-5-8-8-7-7-7-7-4-6-7

(the blip was games 10-15, a very tough run)

The 12-Game Moving Average (starting at WBA)

is 9-12-12-12-14-14

(14 points in 12 over a season is 54 points)

in other words, we are getting better, a lot better than 2 points in our first six gamesr!

No problem.

I have at no point thought we were going to or are going to get relegated this season. I'm overly optimistic some might say.

It's very apparent that we have improved since the first 6 games. I would not argue that we haven't. I would argue that our ppg will meander just over and under the current ppg. I can't see a huge improvement coming but equally I can't see us turning to absolute muck.

All I wanted to say was that the use of form and ppg as equitable terms is a mistake and can be very misleading. Perhaps I should have used a fictitious team for my example of a 6 game block as I was talking in more general terms rather than specifically our situation.

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 13 Nov 2018 13:16

Now we are beating 1 ppg. If we can just improve a tad

to, say 15 points every 12 games

that's 36 or 37 more points by season's end giving us 52 or 53, somewhere around 17-18th?
Last edited by Snowball on 13 Nov 2018 16:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Hendo » 13 Nov 2018 13:46

Snowball Now we are beating 1 pug. If we can just improve a tad

to, say 15 points every 12 games

that's 36 or 37 more points by season's end giving us 52 or 53, somewhere around 17-18th?


Just checking to see if any animals were hurt in this statistical analysis...? :wink:

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Sutekh » 13 Nov 2018 14:32

Out of interest for each of the blocks of games what was the average league position of the opposition for that block? Just thinking if Reading has started picking up more points and the average league position in each block has been getting lower then that should underline the improvement. Would imagine the next 6 will be the toughest block by a fair way though.


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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by NewCorkSeth » 13 Nov 2018 15:02

Sutekh Out of interest for each of the blocks of games what was the average league position of the opposition for that block? Just thinking if Reading has started picking up more points and the average league position in each block has been getting lower then that should underline the improvement. Would imagine the next 6 will be the toughest block by a fair way though.

The average position for the second block (Preston - West Brom) was 14th (14.3)
The average position for the next block (including the unplayed fixture against Wigan) is 16th.

I don't think it's worthwhile doing an average position for the first block of 6.. can't draw many conclusions from the postion of each team before the first game.

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Tilehurstsouthbank » 13 Nov 2018 15:05

Reading4eva It also depends on who you are playing. If you have a run of Hull, Rotherham, Ipswich, Bolton and Millwall and mustered up 10 points for example, at the start of a season, for example, would you for example say your the best team in the league

Course you wouldn't. We are shit and will be found out within the next month when we play sides capable of getting promoted. Hope I'm wrong but I think we will be spending Christmas in the bottom 3, if not bottom


Think you could've got a least one more 'example' in there if you tried...

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Lower West » 13 Nov 2018 16:39

How does the moving average compare with the second half of last season.

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 13 Nov 2018 18:20

Lower West How does the moving average compare with the second half of last season.


Interesting question

Do you mean 23 games or just the Clement Era?


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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 13 Nov 2018 23:30

From the 12th game last year (first 12-game MA point...

2017-18 Stam managed one moment where the 12 games had yielded 15 points
then nine games later managed 17/18/15/15 before imploding

The collapse was spectacular, from 17/18/15/15/15 (13) down to
10/11/10/9/9/6/5/6/7/7/7/8/7/7

12 15 14 11 14 14 11 12 12 14 17 18 15 15 15 13 10 11 10 9 9 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7

10 7 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 <<< Clement's eight games last season (include's Stam games)

8 8 6 7 4 7 6 9 10 9 9 12 12 11 13 14 this season. The low will be the end of our first six games

Obviously we can't know if the 13-14 of the last two 12's will be maintained,
but only at six single-game points last season did Stam better 14 from 12

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 13 Nov 2018 23:43

10 7 Points (Stam's last ten games)
10 8 Points (Clement's first ten games)
10 9 Points (Clement's next ten games, this season)
07 7 Points (This run of ten games, three games to go, Wigan, Leeds, Stoke)



I think (I'm knackered)

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by John Smith » 15 Nov 2018 15:00

Snowball From the 12th game last year (first 12-game MA point...

2017-18 Stam managed one moment where the 12 games had yielded 15 points
then nine games later managed 17/18/15/15 before imploding

The collapse was spectacular, from 17/18/15/15/15 (13) down to
10/11/10/9/9/6/5/6/7/7/7/8/7/7

12 15 14 11 14 14 11 12 12 14 17 18 15 15 15 13 10 11 10 9 9 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7

10 7 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 <<< Clement's eight games last season (include's Stam games)

8 8 6 7 4 7 6 9 10 9 9 12 12 11 13 14 this season. The low will be the end of our first six games

Obviously we can't know if the 13-14 of the last two 12's will be maintained,
but only at six single-game points last season did Stam better 14 from 12

You think you're like a new school European coach coming on here posting irrelevant stats. Just enjoy the game as a fan - there's no prizes for doing what you're doing

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 15 Nov 2018 15:33

WTF do I care about prizes?

I’m arguing about our real improvement and this is one way of arguing that

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Snowball » 15 Nov 2018 15:37

Also, seeing just 15 wins in 62 games over almost 15 months, makes it utterly clear how little the fault is Clement’s

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by NewCorkSeth » 15 Nov 2018 16:02

Snowball Also, seeing just 15 wins in 62 games over almost 15 months, makes it utterly clear how little the fault is Clement’s

What's the breakdown of that?

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Re: BFTG - Ipshit H

by Sutekh » 15 Nov 2018 17:05

NewCorkSeth
Snowball Also, seeing just 15 wins in 62 games over almost 15 months, makes it utterly clear how little the fault is Clement’s

What's the breakdown of that?


Clement owns 25 league games of the 63 played since the start of last season.

In those 25 games Reading are averaging a whopping 0.96 ppg and an average of 1.12 goals scored v 1.68 goals conceded per game

How does that compare to Stam's 38 game season?

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