The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

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Snowball
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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowball » 22 Jan 2019 15:48

Safe before game 46

Victor Meldrew
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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Victor Meldrew » 22 Jan 2019 15:50

Snowball
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Snowball
First, our opening six games partly distorts that picture. Leaving those aside it's 21 from 22, and that is after a tough run

1 New manager making us play better.

Evidence, drawing 0-0 at QPR, good result by any standards, competing well at Manchester United, on the best win-run of any new Utd manager in history, beaten only by a VAR penalty and a goal from a £70 Million striker. Beating Norwich 2-0 and playing them off the park, then competing at Derby (who had just beaten Premiership Saints and are sixth in the table) and dominating them second-half.

2 Finding a place for Aluko and transforming his form - almost a new signing.

3 Signing Ovie Ejaria who is already very good indeed. Probably Baker, also

4 Emergence of Rinhomota - a future Prem player if ever I saw one

5 Settling on a Number 1 goalkeeper (for now). Maybe not good enough, but better than uncertainty.

6 Removing dead weight, bad eggs from the squad. Increased morale

7 Probable signing of a known QUALITY striker. (Had we had one at Derby we would have got at least a point).

8 Manager's effect only just beginning to show and this should become more evident as we progress, resulting in wins where we might have drawn, draws where we might have lost. The extra points will increase confidence and mean even more points


Snowball, as usual getting carried away.
When did we beat Norwich under the new manager?
It was Man Utd's Reserves that we played-it's the first team that has been winning.
You somehow forgot, or chose to ignore, the debacle v Swansea.

No wonder people don't take you seriously.


You well know that Norwich was a mis-type for Notts Forest, and a gentleman might have pointed out the error.

I didn't ignore the Swansea game. It was irrelevant. I was talking about evidence of improvement


As for the Swansea game, I just see it as "one of those games"

Reading had more possession, more shots, the same number of shots on target (5),
as Swansea but, like at Old Trafford, our weakness in front of goal, and the other side's
clinical finishing, is what made the difference.

We appear to have got in two very good midfielders, got Aluko playing again,
discovered Rinomhota, settled on a keeper for now, and are just about to get a striker

All in all that is brilliant and I'm happy to have a hefty side bet with you that Reading will be
clear of relegation by season's end. How much £100? £500?


That's not much of a bet suggesting that we won't get a couple of points more than Bolton and Rotherham.

Once again you have wiped away our terrible conversion rate in front of goal as if it will just come right because we might get a new striker and that Aluko, on the evidence of a couple of cameo performances will now become the player we thought we were signing.
If and when we beat Bolton and Villa I will agree with you that the corner has been turned (surely what all of us want) but until that happens I will reserve judgement.

BTW we are around 2/1 to stay up so I suggest with your current confidence you might as well chance your money with a bookie.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Victor Meldrew » 22 Jan 2019 15:56

John Smith
Duffy
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They didn't, they were abysmal. Hi DD/Kes btw.


I saw Gary O'Neil come close and they had several other chances. What you also must remember is WBA are a better side than us. Not sure what the last part of your response means.

What you must remember is if their most potent option is Gary O'Neil then they are diabolical. And they are. Their defending of set pieces isn't good enough, but I think crucially they were undone by a through ball for the 2nd goal which seems to be one of our strengths. Baker and Ejaria will rip them to shreds.


The last but one sentence of your posting could equally apply to us (see Derby's first goal on Saturday when they walked through the middle of our defence).
What did surprise me most about Bolton last night was how they lacked physicality, something you don't expect of a Bolton or a Parky team.
If they are like that against us we have a chance although I suspect we need to score at least 2 as they are almost certain to score with a set-piece header.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowball » 22 Jan 2019 16:01

Victor Meldrew
Snowball
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Snowball, as usual getting carried away.
When did we beat Norwich under the new manager?
It was Man Utd's Reserves that we played-it's the first team that has been winning.
You somehow forgot, or chose to ignore, the debacle v Swansea.

No wonder people don't take you seriously.





You well know that Norwich was a mis-type for Notts Forest, and a gentleman might have pointed out the error.

I didn't ignore the Swansea game. It was irrelevant. I was talking about evidence of improvement


As for the Swansea game, I just see it as "one of those games"

Reading had more possession, more shots, the same number of shots on target (5),
as Swansea but, like at Old Trafford, our weakness in front of goal, and the other side's
clinical finishing, is what made the difference.

We appear to have got in two very good midfielders, got Aluko playing again,
discovered Rinomhota, settled on a keeper for now, and are just about to get a striker

All in all that is brilliant and I'm happy to have a hefty side bet with you that Reading will be
clear of relegation by season's end. How much £100? £500?


That's not much of a bet suggesting that we won't get a couple of points more than Bolton and Rotherham.

Once again you have wiped away our terrible conversion rate in front of goal as if it will just come right because we might get a new striker and that Aluko, on the evidence of a couple of cameo performances will now become the player we thought we were signing.
If and when we beat Bolton and Villa I will agree with you that the corner has been turned (surely what all of us want) but until that happens I will reserve judgement.

BTW we are around 2/1 to stay up so I suggest with your current confidence you might as well chance your money with a bookie.



We are 6/5 to stay up, odds-on to go down.

And it wasn’t the bookies I wanted to take money off...

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Victor Meldrew » 22 Jan 2019 16:03

Snowball
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You well know that Norwich was a mis-type for Notts Forest, and a gentleman might have pointed out the error.

I didn't ignore the Swansea game. It was irrelevant. I was talking about evidence of improvement


As for the Swansea game, I just see it as "one of those games"

Reading had more possession, more shots, the same number of shots on target (5),
as Swansea but, like at Old Trafford, our weakness in front of goal, and the other side's
clinical finishing, is what made the difference.

We appear to have got in two very good midfielders, got Aluko playing again,
discovered Rinomhota, settled on a keeper for now, and are just about to get a striker

All in all that is brilliant and I'm happy to have a hefty side bet with you that Reading will be
clear of relegation by season's end. How much £100? £500?


That's not much of a bet suggesting that we won't get a couple of points more than Bolton and Rotherham.

Once again you have wiped away our terrible conversion rate in front of goal as if it will just come right because we might get a new striker and that Aluko, on the evidence of a couple of cameo performances will now become the player we thought we were signing.
If and when we beat Bolton and Villa I will agree with you that the corner has been turned (surely what all of us want) but until that happens I will reserve judgement.

BTW we are around 2/1 to stay up so I suggest with your current confidence you might as well chance your money with a bookie.



We are 6/5 to stay up, odds-on to go down.

And it wasn’t the bookies I wanted to take money off...



You must be able to get much better than 6/5 as Bet365 are quoting 4/9 for us to be relegated and allowing for their margin it means around 2/1 to stay up.
Surely money is just money .


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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowball » 22 Jan 2019 18:09

Victor Meldrew
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That's not much of a bet suggesting that we won't get a couple of points more than Bolton and Rotherham.

Once again you have wiped away our terrible conversion rate in front of goal as if it will just come right because we might get a new striker and that Aluko, on the evidence of a couple of cameo performances will now become the player we thought we were signing.
If and when we beat Bolton and Villa I will agree with you that the corner has been turned (surely what all of us want) but until that happens I will reserve judgement.

BTW we are around 2/1 to stay up so I suggest with your current confidence you might as well chance your money with a bookie.



We are 6/5 to stay up, odds-on to go down.

And it wasn’t the bookies I wanted to take money off...



You must be able to get much better than 6/5 as Bet365 are quoting 4/9 for us to be relegated and allowing for their margin it means around 2/1 to stay up.
Surely money is just money .



You're joking, aren't you? I'd rather take you (or Ian Royal) :D for £50 than win £500 on line.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowflake Royal » 22 Jan 2019 18:20

As you're aware snowy, I only do bets to charity.

Happy to bet who is closer to our next 8 game points tally, me with ~8 or you with 19. I'll not take survive / relegation yet though because whilst I think relegation is most likely, there's still room for transfers and it'll be a relatively close thing.

I think you're in absolute cloud cuckoo land with 19 from 8.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Pepe the Horseman » 22 Jan 2019 19:49

Victor Meldrew
Snowball
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Snowball, as usual getting carried away.
When did we beat Norwich under the new manager?
It was Man Utd's Reserves that we played-it's the first team that has been winning.
You somehow forgot, or chose to ignore, the debacle v Swansea.

No wonder people don't take you seriously.


You well know that Norwich was a mis-type for Notts Forest, and a gentleman might have pointed out the error.

I didn't ignore the Swansea game. It was irrelevant. I was talking about evidence of improvement


As for the Swansea game, I just see it as "one of those games"

Reading had more possession, more shots, the same number of shots on target (5),
as Swansea but, like at Old Trafford, our weakness in front of goal, and the other side's
clinical finishing, is what made the difference.

We appear to have got in two very good midfielders, got Aluko playing again,
discovered Rinomhota, settled on a keeper for now, and are just about to get a striker

All in all that is brilliant and I'm happy to have a hefty side bet with you that Reading will be
clear of relegation by season's end. How much £100? £500?


That's not much of a bet suggesting that we won't get a couple of points more than Bolton and Rotherham.

Once again you have wiped away our terrible conversion rate in front of goal as if it will just come right because we might get a new striker and that Aluko, on the evidence of a couple of cameo performances will now become the player we thought we were signing.
If and when we beat Bolton and Villa I will agree with you that the corner has been turned (surely what all of us want) but until that happens I will reserve judgement.

BTW we are around 2/1 to stay up so I suggest with your current confidence you might as well chance your money with a bookie.

6/5, but your point's still valid.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Lower West » 22 Jan 2019 20:42

John Smith I think Bolton are so bad that we will win up there quite easily.



Far too often we simply don't turn up. Bolton have nothing to lose but to give it a go. In a physical game how many Reading players will simply go AWOL? Team selection is key.


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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowball » 22 Jan 2019 21:05

Lower West
John Smith I think Bolton are so bad that we will win up there quite easily.



Far too often we simply don't turn up. Bolton have nothing to lose but to give it a go. In a physical game how many Reading players will simply go AWOL? Team selection is key.


Agree and worry about this, BUT I think the manager will show them again
the difference between their timid openings and those where they get on
the front foot (like, for example, the two halves at Derby)

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowball » 22 Jan 2019 21:09

Snowflake Royal As you're aware snowy, I only do bets to charity.

Happy to bet who is closer to our next 8 game points tally, me with ~8 or you with 19. I'll not take survive / relegation yet though because whilst I think relegation is most likely, there's still room for transfers and it'll be a relatively close thing.

I think you're in absolute cloud cuckoo land with 19 from 8.


I didn't "choose to say 19 points"

Instead I looked at what I thought would happen IF, IF, IF, we win at Bolton.

I fear that if we LOSE there, that 8 points will be optimistic.

But I'm betting on a win, lifted confidence, followed by beating Villa.

If that happens, the only likely defeat would be Sheffield United.

I grant you that if we lose at Bolton we could implode.

BTW I would hardly have an even-money bet on 19 points.

Far better to bet on the matches, as many will offer evens or better for one game

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowflake Royal » 22 Jan 2019 21:56

Snowball
Snowflake Royal As you're aware snowy, I only do bets to charity.

Happy to bet who is closer to our next 8 game points tally, me with ~8 or you with 19. I'll not take survive / relegation yet though because whilst I think relegation is most likely, there's still room for transfers and it'll be a relatively close thing.

I think you're in absolute cloud cuckoo land with 19 from 8.


I didn't "choose to say 19 points"

Instead I looked at what I thought would happen IF, IF, IF, we win at Bolton.

I fear that if we LOSE there, that 8 points will be optimistic.

But I'm betting on a win, lifted confidence, followed by beating Villa.

If that happens, the only likely defeat would be Sheffield United.

I grant you that if we lose at Bolton we could implode.

BTW I would hardly have an even-money bet on 19 points.

Far better to bet on the matches, as many will offer evens or better for one game


Snowball We are 6/5 to stay up, odds-on to go down.
And it wasn’t the bookies I wanted to take money off...

Snowball You're joking, aren't you? I'd rather take you (or Ian Royal) :D for £50 than win £500 on line.


I think quoting your own words is a far better response than anything I could come up with right now.

Empty words and unwilling to stake a claim to anything so you can weasel your way out of being wrong.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Lower West » 22 Jan 2019 22:01

Snowball
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John Smith I think Bolton are so bad that we will win up there quite easily.



Far too often we simply don't turn up. Bolton have nothing to lose but to give it a go. In a physical game how many Reading players will simply go AWOL? Team selection is key.


Agree and worry about this, BUT I think the manager will show them again
the difference between their timid openings and those where they get on
the front foot (like, for example, the two halves at Derby)


Tippy tappy football isn't being on the front foot I fear. Manager needs to instill something else for opening minutes of away games. Otherwise we'll simply be the masters of own downfall again. Need a combative midfield at the very minimum.


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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Snowball » 22 Jan 2019 22:23

Ian, first of all my purported bet was aimed at Victor.

Second, if it was v you (and for charity) I wouldn’t be winning anything.

Third, you predict roughly the status quo (one point per game) for which bookies would probably go evens

I, on the other hand, am saying (for eight games) promotion form, for which, if there was such a bet, I’d guess the bookies would be giving 20/1, 25/1 maybe 33/1

WHY therefore would I want a sappy for-charity bet at evens?

Are you really that dumb?

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Royal_jimmy » 22 Jan 2019 23:01

Make or break
Last edited by Royal_jimmy on 23 Jan 2019 19:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Royal_jimmy » 22 Jan 2019 23:26

Can see some very confident points returns from other posters.

Realistically expect our home form to improve but those away games are actually pretty tough. I think we will get 12 points. I'd say 12 is the least we need. Our last 10 games are difficult.

Bolton (a) - D - will be tough. A physical Bolton side away on a cold damp Tuesday night. They will be up for it. May have to come from behind
Villa (H) - D - our record v them is pretty meh. Wouldn't be surprised if we lost either
Weds (a) - D - get held after leading
Blackburn (H) - W - expect it'll be a comfortable win v a mid table side
Sheff Utd (a) - L - outclassed again by the Blades
Rotherham (H) - W - squeak a win. Will be a tight and nervy game
Ipswich (a) - L - they have nothing to lose
Wigan (H) - W - again we edge a tight game

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Denver Royal » 23 Jan 2019 01:45

Lower West
John Smith I think Bolton are so bad that we will win up there quite easily.



Far too often we simply don't turn up. Bolton have nothing to lose but to give it a go. In a physical game how many Reading players will simply go AWOL? Team selection is key.

What would be your team/formation then? Thanks.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Jackson Corner » 23 Jan 2019 03:54

Old Man Andrews Bolton (a) - W
Villa (H) - W
Weds (a) - W
Blackburn (H) - W
Sheff Utd (a) - D
Rotherham (H) - W
Ipswich (a) - W
Wigan (H) - W

And no I am not joking.


If that happens I'm going to oxf*rd in my mother in laws goldfish bowl.

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Old Man Andrews » 23 Jan 2019 08:10

Jackson Corner
Old Man Andrews Bolton (a) - W
Villa (H) - W
Weds (a) - W
Blackburn (H) - W
Sheff Utd (a) - D
Rotherham (H) - W
Ipswich (a) - W
Wigan (H) - W

And no I am not joking.


If that happens I'm going to oxf*rd in my mother in laws goldfish bowl.


And I'll oxf*rd your mother in law. Deal?

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Re: The Next 8 games - Make or Break Time

by Ascotexgunner » 23 Jan 2019 09:40

Gunny Fishcake Bearing in mind my appalling prediction record ......

Bolton (a) D
Villa (H) L
Weds (a) L
Blackburn (H) W
Sheff Utd (a) L
Rotherham (H) D
Ipswich (a) D
Wigan (H) W

Still think we'll probably go down but if we do escape it will be by the skin of our teeth, maybe our goal difference.


I think this is the closest prediction for me...I just don't think we have the goals.
Unless the Norwich reject becomes the new Shane Long..... I think 37 points wont be enough...even if we get that.

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