Run Ins - Relative Strengths

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Hound » 11 Mar 2019 21:48

Both Stoke and Hull are already in the nothing to play for category

Need to win one of those I think

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by URZZZZ » 11 Mar 2019 22:09

Hound Both Stoke and Hull are already in the nothing to play for category

Need to win one of those I think


Stoke yes, Hull not IMO
Hull are 5 points off 6th, assuming they lose to Norwich midweek, after that they have QPR at home, Ipswich away, us at home then Wigan at home, they still have a good chance

Plus Hull have only lost 1 home game since the beginning of October, it's one of the hardest games we've got left IMO

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Brain Traysers » 11 Mar 2019 22:21

I'm not convinced that league position is the right metric to look at - 4 teams have played a game less and the league is quite tight in places (e.g. only 2 points currently separate 9th from 14th). I think these issues are resolved by using the average points per game achieved by the different teams faced in their respective run ins.

Avg. PPG of opposition - hardest to easiest rank (league ranking)
1 - Reading's final 10 opponents have averaged 1.57PPG to date (1st/ hardest run in of anyone in the whole league by opposition PPG)
2 - Rotherham 1.49 (2nd)
3 - Millwall 1.47 (3rd)
4 - Ipswich 1.46 (4th)
5 - Wigan 1.41 (6th)
6 - Bolton 1.29 (20th hardest run in)

Admittedly, that doesn't say anything about form, which others have tackled above.

While it doesn't change the picture massively, when compared with using league position it does actually suggest we have the hardest run in. I also note the PPG between us and 2nd hardest (Rotherham) run in is the same 0.08ppg as between 2nd and 6th worst - essentially. Bolton have a relatively easy run it, but hopefully are too far gone at this stage (5 points + significant goal difference)

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by NewCorkSeth » 12 Mar 2019 08:42

Will the Bolton players try harder now to try put themselves in the shop window or will they give up after all the pay stuff they are dealing with?

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by John Smith » 12 Mar 2019 16:18

Hound Both Stoke and Hull are already in the nothing to play for category

Need to win one of those I think

We will win at Stoke. They are an utterly atrocious outfit and the current manager needs to go. They need to sell 80% of the playing staff and start from scratch.


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by CountryRoyal » 12 Mar 2019 16:43

John Smith
Hound Both Stoke and Hull are already in the nothing to play for category

Need to win one of those I think

We will win at Stoke. They are an utterly atrocious outfit and the current manager needs to go. They need to sell 80% of the playing staff and start from scratch.


[pedant]Which one is it, sell 80% of the playing staff, or start from scratch?[/pedant]

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by John Smith » 12 Mar 2019 17:09

CountryRoyal
John Smith
Hound Both Stoke and Hull are already in the nothing to play for category

Need to win one of those I think

We will win at Stoke. They are an utterly atrocious outfit and the current manager needs to go. They need to sell 80% of the playing staff and start from scratch.


[pedant]Which one is it, sell 80% of the playing staff, or start from scratch?[/pedant]

Sell 80% of the players. Jack Butland and Joe Allen can stay.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by CountryRoyal » 12 Mar 2019 17:16

John Smith
CountryRoyal
John Smith We will win at Stoke. They are an utterly atrocious outfit and the current manager needs to go. They need to sell 80% of the playing staff and start from scratch.


[pedant]Which one is it, sell 80% of the playing staff, or start from scratch?[/pedant]

Sell 80% of the players. Jack Butland and Joe Allen can stay.


[pedant]So they only have 10 players to begin with?[/pedant]

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by John Smith » 12 Mar 2019 17:30

CountryRoyal
John Smith
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[pedant]Which one is it, sell 80% of the playing staff, or start from scratch?[/pedant]

Sell 80% of the players. Jack Butland and Joe Allen can stay.


[pedant]So they only have 10 players to begin with?[/pedant]

Yes. I refuse to recognise the likes of Ryan Shawcross, Mame Biram Diouf, Saido Berahino and Charlie Adam as professional footballers.


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by NewCorkSeth » 12 Mar 2019 17:33

John Smith
CountryRoyal
John Smith Sell 80% of the players. Jack Butland and Joe Allen can stay.


[pedant]So they only have 10 players to begin with?[/pedant]

Yes. I refuse to recognise the likes of Ryan Shawcross, Mame Biram Diouf, Saido Berahino and Charlie Adam as professional footballers.

What's wrong with Shawcross?

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths Update 14/3

by Stranded » 14 Mar 2019 09:26

Key points

[*]Reading still the form team of the bottom 6
[*]Rotherham's run-in is much easier than it looks as opponents not in form
[*]Bolton's run in is by far the easiest of the lot


Form Table

1. Reading 9th (10pts)
2. Rotherham 10th (9pts)
3. Millwall 15th (6 pts)
4. Bolton 17th (6 pts)
5. Ipswich 18th (5 pts)
6. Wigan 24th (3 pts)

Avg. position of opponents

1. Rotherham 8.7 (Change from last game +0.6 - i.e. tougher)
2. Reading 9.1 (-1)
3. Millwall 10.4 (-0.2)
4. Wigan 11.1 (+0.6)
5. Ipswich 11.2 (-0.8)
6. Bolton 13.6 (-0.2)

Avg. form table position of opponents

1. Ipswich 10.4
2. Reading 11.1
3. Millwall 11.2
4. Wigan 11.3
5. Rotherham 12.4
6. Bolton 16

Overall Strength (Sum of League position/form for opponents) - Higher the number more difficult the run-in.

1. Rotherham 6.52
2. Bolton 8.74
3. Reading 9.18
4. Wigan 10.37
5. Millwall 11.54
6. Ipswich 13.18

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by stealthpapes » 14 Apr 2019 12:59

stealthpapes
Leeds (H)
Stoke (a)
Preston (H)
Hull (a)
Norwich (a)
Brentford (H)
Bristol (a)
WBA (H)
Boro (a)
Brum (H)


I look at this and I kinda hope teams are already out of the playoff chase by the time we get there.

So, 3 categories
"have a nice day, here is 3 points" (in bold)
outside chance (underline) - think we'll win 1, draw 1, lose 1 from that lot.
"the easyjet flight to malaga" (italics) - will win only if team has nothing to play for.

So, that's minimum 4 (to 40 and likely safety) and maximum 10 (steve mcqueen territory)

Last game might be squeeky bum.


I think I'm one up on my predictions here (4 from the underline, 3 from Brentford and cheeky point at Norwich).

However, our last four is properly miserly. Pray for the wrong WBA to turn up and pray that Brum are safely up.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Snowflake Royal » 14 Apr 2019 13:09

Bristol are one place above us in the form table, whilst Boro and Brum are significantly below.

Only West Brom are currently a real cut above on recent form and the Norwich side we drew with are ahead of them (at least for now).

It wouldn't be a massive surprise to pick up another 5 - 7 points, it wouldn't even be inconceivable to finish the season unbeaten.

Gosh, it'd be nice to finish the season strong.

Draw, Draw, Win, Win would be fabulous


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by CountryRoyal » 14 Apr 2019 18:13

Snowflake Royal it wouldn't even be inconceivable to finish the season unbeaten.


Want to give me some odds for that?

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Snowflake Royal » 14 Apr 2019 20:28

Didn't say it was likely!

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Stranded » 15 Apr 2019 08:25

Snowflake Royal Bristol are one place above us in the form table, whilst Boro and Brum are significantly below.

Only West Brom are currently a real cut above on recent form and the Norwich side we drew with are ahead of them (at least for now).

It wouldn't be a massive surprise to pick up another 5 - 7 points, it wouldn't even be inconceivable to finish the season unbeaten.

Gosh, it'd be nice to finish the season strong.

Draw, Draw, Win, Win would be fabulous


Yep the thing with our run in at the moment - is I look at it and every time I do I see another permutation. As we won on Saturday, I really can't see us pulling out a win on Friday so the draw is the best we can hope for but by the same piece we don't appear to be a team that loses 2 on the bounce any more. At the moment, I see us going L, D, D, W but who the hell knows.

Think 1 win is all we need but 4 will settle it as can't see Rotherham wining 3 of their last 4 and if they do, fair play.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by GazzTheSpaz » 15 Apr 2019 14:38

stealthpapes
stealthpapes
Leeds (H)
Stoke (a)
Preston (H)
Hull (a)
Norwich (a)
Brentford (H)
Bristol (a)
WBA (H)
Boro (a)
Brum (H)


I look at this and I kinda hope teams are already out of the playoff chase by the time we get there.

So, 3 categories
"have a nice day, here is 3 points" (in bold)
outside chance (underline) - think we'll win 1, draw 1, lose 1 from that lot.
"the easyjet flight to malaga" (italics) - will win only if team has nothing to play for.

So, that's minimum 4 (to 40 and likely safety) and maximum 10 (steve mcqueen territory)

Last game might be squeeky bum.


I think I'm one up on my predictions here (4 from the underline, 3 from Brentford and cheeky point at Norwich).

However, our last four is properly miserly. Pray for the wrong WBA to turn up and pray that Brum are safely up.


Try using the 'Last 10' form guide, we're above Brizzle :wink:

We lost our 10th game ago so any points pushes our form total up, the Baggies won their 10th game ago so if they win they'll remain the same, if not they drop below us.

So the optimistic side of me says we'll be higher than them when we play :o

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by From Despair To Where? » 15 Apr 2019 15:46

Looking at ours and Rotherham's last 3 games, both have 2 at home, 1 away. We've both got Birmingham at home but I'd rather have Middlesbrough away than West Brom.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Dick Habbin's hairdo » 15 Apr 2019 17:35

I think all this analysis of Rovrum is a bit off. We'll both be fine.

It's Wigan that is going down. Their fixtures are tough.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by From Despair To Where? » 15 Apr 2019 18:04

I'm only looking at Rotherham as they are currently in the worst position relative to us.

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