CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

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BR0B0T
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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 24 Jul 2019 06:53

Maneki Neko low risk moneyball signing.
identify what the squad is missing, in this case, experience, quality, deadball ability, cover in midfield. fill that gap for no money with a player other people have written off..


it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Stranded » 24 Jul 2019 08:39

BR0B0T
Maneki Neko low risk moneyball signing.
identify what the squad is missing, in this case, experience, quality, deadball ability, cover in midfield. fill that gap for no money with a player other people have written off..


it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder


Yeah but he only played 400 mins and often in fits and starts and generally brought on to try and make things happen to try and get Stoke back into a game. The pass completion is low as he was attempting 2.7 long balls a game - which fits in with the view he was trying to force the game. He also played at least 1 key pass per game. So nowhere near as bad as the headline 56% figure.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by bcubed » 24 Jul 2019 11:29

BR0B0T
Maneki Neko low risk moneyball signing.
identify what the squad is missing, in this case, experience, quality, deadball ability, cover in midfield. fill that gap for no money with a player other people have written off..


it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder


Isn't Moneyball saying you have to look at some specific stats that will work for your team, not the obvious ones? There may be some stats we don't know about where he excels!

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 24 Jul 2019 11:37

bcubed
BR0B0T
Maneki Neko low risk moneyball signing.
identify what the squad is missing, in this case, experience, quality, deadball ability, cover in midfield. fill that gap for no money with a player other people have written off..


it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder


Isn't Moneyball saying you have to look at some specific stats that will work for your team, not the obvious ones? There may be some stats we don't know about where he excels!


In my original post, I linked to the Statsbomb Charlie Adam radars.

This covers a lot of key stats such as expected assists etc

They weren't gr8...he's also very static!

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 24 Jul 2019 11:46



Passing






Video of him being utter shite...
https://twitter.com/hecairns/status/1153429193956503559


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by bcubed » 24 Jul 2019 11:50

BR0B0T
bcubed
BR0B0T
it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder


Isn't Moneyball saying you have to look at some specific stats that will work for your team, not the obvious ones? There may be some stats we don't know about where he excels!


In my original post, I linked to the Statsbomb Charlie Adam radars.

This covers a lot of key stats such as expected assists etc

They weren't gr8...he's also very static!


But maybe we have stats to show how static he is and that's what we're looking for?!

Don't know where I'm going with this!

Point is in Moneyball logic you have to know what the management is looking for and it might not be covered by a traditional stat

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by stealthpapes » 24 Jul 2019 13:19

Stranded
BR0B0T
Maneki Neko low risk moneyball signing.
identify what the squad is missing, in this case, experience, quality, deadball ability, cover in midfield. fill that gap for no money with a player other people have written off..


it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder


Yeah but he only played 400 mins and often in fits and starts and generally brought on to try and make things happen to try and get Stoke back into a game. The pass completion is low as he was attempting 2.7 long balls a game - which fits in with the view he was trying to force the game. He also played at least 1 key pass per game. So nowhere near as bad as the headline 56% figure.


yeah, came here to say someone misread the point of Moneyball.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 24 Jul 2019 14:35

stealthpapes
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BR0B0T
it's the opposite of Moneyball, his stats are absolute dogshit

56% pass completion for a midfieLOLder


Yeah but he only played 400 mins and often in fits and starts and generally brought on to try and make things happen to try and get Stoke back into a game. The pass completion is low as he was attempting 2.7 long balls a game - which fits in with the view he was trying to force the game. He also played at least 1 key pass per game. So nowhere near as bad as the headline 56% figure.


yeah, came here to say someone misread the point of Moneyball.


Brentford are the most 'Moneyball' team out there...

this is the view of their former FCM (current CEO of Statsbomb, helped develop Pinnacle Sports trading model etc)


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by stealthpapes » 25 Jul 2019 18:16

Again, that he's been shit recently - and he really has been - makes no difference to it being a Moneyball signing or not.

For someone who claims to be all over this, it seems a fundamental point to be stumbling on.


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Royalwaster » 25 Jul 2019 18:45

stealthpapes Again, that he's been shit recently - and he really has been - makes no difference to it being a Moneyball signing or not.

For someone who claims to be all over this, it seems a fundamental point to be stumbling on.


I'm with you ... signing someone who is acknowledged to have been really good is CLEARLY not a moneyball signing. Getting on someone on a free who has been written off is. But it can also be a Meyler type rubbish signing more often than not.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Stranded » 25 Jul 2019 18:54

Royalwaster
stealthpapes Again, that he's been shit recently - and he really has been - makes no difference to it being a Moneyball signing or not.

For someone who claims to be all over this, it seems a fundamental point to be stumbling on.


I'm with you ... signing someone who is acknowledged to have been really good is CLEARLY not a moneyball signing. Getting on someone on a free who has been written off is. But it can also be a Meyler type rubbish signing more often than not.


Difference is Meyler wasn't derided as rubbish and should have been at least OK as he had been decent at this level but bombed. Adam has been awful in his rare appearances of late but could be good if he fits the style Gomes wants.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by NewCorkSeth » 25 Jul 2019 19:24

Wait.. sorry.. is moneyball not based on effective stats? If his stats have been shit recently then he is not a moneyball signing.

I mean moneyball doesn't apply to football because it's not a simple game. Its not "how often does he get on base".

The point is a moneyball signing (for arguments sake in football) is based on current stats not what they did 5 years ago.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Snowflake Royal » 25 Jul 2019 19:32

NewCorkSeth Wait.. sorry.. is moneyball not based on effective stats? If his stats have been shit recently then he is not a moneyball signing.

I mean moneyball doesn't apply to football because it's not a simple game. Its not "how often does he get on base".

The point is a moneyball signing (for arguments sake in football) is based on current stats not what they did 5 years ago.

I believe, and I may be wrong, that moneyball is finding underrated players for cheap that will exceed expectations. That might be looking for relatively unknown players with great stats, or well known players who have recently underperformed and are so underrated, but could revert to quality in the right environment.

Adam could be moneyball on the basis he's struggled in recent seasons, but because of injuries that our medical means we're confident he's over and so he'll revert to better performance.


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by SCIAG » 25 Jul 2019 19:37

If we're being generous, I think the "Moneyball" aspect with Adam is perhaps that he's a set-piece specialist. At least at his peak, he was a Sigurdsson/Harte level threat and set piece skills don't really seem to diminish in the same way as other skills. Set pieces remain an under-exploited area of the game and consequently a club lacking resources can focus on them to overperform.

Signing a player who looks shit on paper because he might give us an extra ~20 goals a season (either directly or through his delivery), is a form of Sabermetrics. In the wider world of football it's considered a stupid idea, but it might not be - again look at Harte or Rory Delap.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 25 Jul 2019 19:38

stealthpapes Again, that he's been shit recently - and he really has been - makes no difference to it being a Moneyball signing or not.

For someone who claims to be all over this, it seems a fundamental point to be stumbling on.


definition of word argument...

'Moneyball' process was to identify metrics that actually contribute to winning games rather than traditional methods. On-base percentage and slugging were considered the key metrics iirc...so they recruited players who could do this i.e. had really fcuking good stats in these key areas relative to the amount they would cost

The football equivalent has seen stats like xG, xAssists etc. (the shizzle posted above) Charlie Adam is spectacularly shit at all of these

Anti Moneyball was recruiting old players based on former reputation. However, if you can identify the key metrics that CA possesses that make him a moneyball signing I'll STFU

p.s. it's not "I reckz he can Hollywood pass from the halfway line in the last twenty mins"

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 25 Jul 2019 19:41

SCIAG If we're being generous, I think the "Moneyball" aspect with Adam is perhaps that he's a set-piece specialist. At least at his peak, he was a Sigurdsson/Harte level threat and set piece skills don't really seem to diminish in the same way as other skills. Set pieces remain an under-exploited area of the game and consequently a club lacking resources can focus on them to overperform.

Signing a player who looks shit on paper because he might give us an extra ~20 goals a season (either directly or through his delivery), is a form of Sabermetrics. In the wider world of football it's considered a stupid idea, but it might not be - again look at Harte or Rory Delap.


yeah...could buy the free-kick idea. The Danish side (owned by the Brentford owner) actually employed this idea. Again iirc they scored about a third of their goals from set-pieces so dedic8d a third of resources to it and won the league

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Snowflake Royal » 25 Jul 2019 19:41

SCIAG If we're being generous, I think the "Moneyball" aspect with Adam is perhaps that he's a set-piece specialist. At least at his peak, he was a Sigurdsson/Harte level threat and set piece skills don't really seem to diminish in the same way as other skills. Set pieces remain an under-exploited area of the game and consequently a club lacking resources can focus on them to overperform.

Signing a player who looks shit on paper because he might give us an extra ~20 goals a season (either directly or through his delivery), is a form of Sabermetrics. In the wider world of football it's considered a stupid idea, but it might not be - again look at Harte or Rory Delap.

Need to factor in how many extra goals we'd concede from him being unable to track, close down or pass though.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 25 Jul 2019 19:41

BR0B0T
stealthpapes Again, that he's been shit recently - and he really has been - makes no difference to it being a Moneyball signing or not.

For someone who claims to be all over this, it seems a fundamental point to be stumbling on.


definition of word argument...

'Moneyball' process was to identify metrics that actually contribute to winning games rather than traditional methods. On-base percentage and slugging were considered the key metrics iirc...so they recruited players who could do this i.e. had really fcuking good stats in these key areas relative to the amount they would cost

The football equivalent has seen stats like xG, xAssists etc. (the shizzle posted above) Charlie Adam is spectacularly shit at all of these

Anti Moneyball was recruiting old players based on former reputation. However, if you can identify the key metrics that CA possesses that make him a moneyball signing I'll STFU

p.s. it's not "I reckz he can Hollywood pass from the halfway line in the last twenty mins"


freekicks m9!

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by AthleticoSpizz » 25 Jul 2019 19:52

Snowflake Royal
SCIAG If we're being generous, I think the "Moneyball" aspect with Adam is perhaps that he's a set-piece specialist. At least at his peak, he was a Sigurdsson/Harte level threat and set piece skills don't really seem to diminish in the same way as other skills. Set pieces remain an under-exploited area of the game and consequently a club lacking resources can focus on them to overperform.

Signing a player who looks shit on paper because he might give us an extra ~20 goals a season (either directly or through his delivery), is a form of Sabermetrics. In the wider world of football it's considered a stupid idea, but it might not be - again look at Harte or Rory Delap.

Need to factor in how many extra goals we'd concede from him being unable to track, close down or pass though.
yep, welcome to Reading Charlie

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Brain Traysers » 25 Jul 2019 19:54

This debate is a tough one - both of those radars (and subsequent analysis) are based on small samples, and we don't know causality (he either was struggling with injuries and fitness leading to bad numbers when on the pitch, or was struggling for minutes because he was poor on the pitch). If it was fitness/injures it's entirely possible those are behind him - someone referenced him looking in good shape above (not that a single anecdote is meaningful).

If we go back to 16/17 we have a younger Charlie Adam playing 1500 mins in a higher league - a much better sample size than the 400s above. I was surprised to see his figures above average in every category in the Understats radar (average = darker gray octagon in the centre), although they are more attacking focused stats so he should show better here than the more balanced StasBomb set. Nevertheless it was nowhere near as poor as I expected to see.



That was enough evidence to move me from 'very underwhelmed' to 'meh'.

(Of course there is a classic BT 'he needs to shoot less frequently from poor positions' point, but that applies to nearly all players...)

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