CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 25 Jul 2019 21:39

SCIAG
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stealthpapes Second, it takes into account circumstances - picking players who are undervalued in their current situation or for cosmetic reasons (in the OG book, you can have Chad Bradford, Scott Hatteburg and Kevin Youkilis as example.). Adam's stats and output have been poor - really, really poor - recently. If our scouting has revealed to our satisfaction that's due to circumstance - mismatch of role in team, only playing in certain match situations, injuries ( :| ) - then he's possibly undervalued.



how can scouting identify the things you outlined

"he was shit but if he had played in role/match circumstances we didn't see him play in he would be good"

The OG example is a player who has quite "poor" stats because he's playing somewhere where the local conditions make it difficult to succeed in his role. Cricket and now baseball are very alert to this but in football we don't talk about it so much.

I guess if you put Xavi on a really bad pitch, he'd probably have worse pass completion than most top-level midfielders, but still the best pass completion in his team. A good scout would see that his poor stats compared to the league aren't reflective of his ability. Or the opposite - Ibrahima Sonko keeps giving away goals because he's being asked to play out of the back, but your team doesn't play from the back so you sign him anyway and he stops giving away goals. Or you go to scout Bobby Convey because his dribbling stats are really good and your manager thinks he might be able to convert him to play behind the striker... but then you realise Reading use the full width of a wide pitch and Convey doesn't leave the flank because he can only see out of one eye.


what's the OG book btw

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by SCIAG » 25 Jul 2019 22:14

BR0B0T
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how can scouting identify the things you outlined

"he was shit but if he had played in role/match circumstances we didn't see him play in he would be good"

The OG example is a player who has quite "poor" stats because he's playing somewhere where the local conditions make it difficult to succeed in his role. Cricket and now baseball are very alert to this but in football we don't talk about it so much.

I guess if you put Xavi on a really bad pitch, he'd probably have worse pass completion than most top-level midfielders, but still the best pass completion in his team. A good scout would see that his poor stats compared to the league aren't reflective of his ability. Or the opposite - Ibrahima Sonko keeps giving away goals because he's being asked to play out of the back, but your team doesn't play from the back so you sign him anyway and he stops giving away goals. Or you go to scout Bobby Convey because his dribbling stats are really good and your manager thinks he might be able to convert him to play behind the striker... but then you realise Reading use the full width of a wide pitch and Convey doesn't leave the flank because he can only see out of one eye.


what's the OG book btw

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by The Enfield Royal71 » 25 Jul 2019 22:52

On reflecting the positives and negatives of this signing for a few days, I have concluded this is a truely poor signing and we are oxf*rd if we dont make a few more actual better ones.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 25 Jul 2019 23:11

SCIAG
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SCIAG The OG example is a player who has quite "poor" stats because he's playing somewhere where the local conditions make it difficult to succeed in his role. Cricket and now baseball are very alert to this but in football we don't talk about it so much.

I guess if you put Xavi on a really bad pitch, he'd probably have worse pass completion than most top-level midfielders, but still the best pass completion in his team. A good scout would see that his poor stats compared to the league aren't reflective of his ability. Or the opposite - Ibrahima Sonko keeps giving away goals because he's being asked to play out of the back, but your team doesn't play from the back so you sign him anyway and he stops giving away goals. Or you go to scout Bobby Convey because his dribbling stats are really good and your manager thinks he might be able to convert him to play behind the striker... but then you realise Reading use the full width of a wide pitch and Convey doesn't leave the flank because he can only see out of one eye.


what's the OG book btw

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis.


sorry, I meant what does OG mean...I have the book

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by SCIAG » 25 Jul 2019 23:32

Oh, "OG" stands for "Original Gangster" but usually just means "original".


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by leon » 26 Jul 2019 00:15

SCIAG Oh, "OG" stands for "Original Gangster" but usually just means "original".


Well In Charlie’ Adams case it stands for Old Gimmer

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Snowflake Royal » 26 Jul 2019 07:12

BR0B0T
stealthpapes That's clearly not my argument, BR0BOT.


tell me how they do it then

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 26 Jul 2019 07:27

Snowflake Royal
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stealthpapes That's clearly not my argument, BR0BOT.


tell me how they do it then

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.


so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Snowflake Royal » 26 Jul 2019 07:37

BR0B0T
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BR0B0T
tell me how they do it then

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.


so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

:|

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 26 Jul 2019 08:08

Snowflake Royal
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Snowflake Royal There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.


so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

:|

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.


Yo Ian, due to the asynchronous nature of this fine portal i think we're at crossed wires...

I'm talking specifically about Charlie Adam

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Snowflake Royal » 26 Jul 2019 08:11

BR0B0T
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BR0B0T
so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

:|

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.


Yo Ian, due to the asynchronous nature of this fine portal i think we're at crossed wires...

I'm talking specifically about Charlie Adam


Many of those points could or do apply to scouting Adam.

Because the point is finding value where there is none perceived. Which includes players with poor stats you have reason to believe can be explained by circumstance.

Ie Adam suffering from injury over the last couple of seasons.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 26 Jul 2019 08:40

Snowflake Royal
BR0B0T
Snowflake Royal :|

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.


Yo Ian, due to the asynchronous nature of this fine portal i think we're at crossed wires...

I'm talking specifically about Charlie Adam


Many of those points could or do apply to scouting Adam.

Because the point is finding value where there is none perceived. Which includes players with poor stats you have reason to believe can be explained by circumstance.

Ie Adam suffering from injury over the last couple of seasons.


how many 34 (in early Dec) year olds recovering from long term injuries go on to be good signings

he doesn't really possess any attributes such as pace or dribbling ability...in fact, he's pretty immobile

which would mean he relies upon passing where he doesn't have great stats in chance creation etc

on passing...obvs you can collect all the data and graph it together as a nodes etc

not sure how handy your linear algebra is but eigenvector_centrality* is a measure of how important any particular node is to the network

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 26 Jul 2019 08:43

the definition of 'value' seems to be pretty wishy-washy as well

get it in the betting thread a lot

...it's good value...
can you price up bets?
....no...
so you don't have a relative benchmark to assess it
...no, but it's still good value...
sure


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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by BR0B0T » 26 Jul 2019 08:50

tbf he came on a free and has a one-year deal so not a massive risk tbf tbh

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Hound » 26 Jul 2019 09:19

watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Stranded » 26 Jul 2019 09:43

Hound watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.


Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Hound » 26 Jul 2019 09:49

Stranded
Hound watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.


Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.


I know, I know. And not writing him off on the strength of it, but....

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by Old Man Andrews » 26 Jul 2019 09:55

Hound
Stranded
Hound watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.


Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.


I know, I know. And not writing him off on the strength of it, but....

Made only 29 league or cup starts in two seasons. A worry. Can see him being very much a "chuck him on with 85 minutes gone if we are winning" type signing who can possibly help the likes of Olise behind the scenes.

Olise has looked class all pre season btw.

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by NewCorkSeth » 26 Jul 2019 10:06

Hound watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

Hard to win free kicks in good areas when one of your CMs cant pass the ball. Also is hit and hope the best plan b we can think of?

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Re: CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

by NewCorkSeth » 26 Jul 2019 10:07

Old Man Andrews
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Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.


I know, I know. And not writing him off on the strength of it, but....

Made only 29 league or cup starts in two seasons. A worry. Can see him being very much a "chuck him on with 85 minutes gone if we are winning" type signing who can possibly help the likes of Olise behind the scenes.

Olise has looked class all pre season btw.

That's good to hear. I have seen some highlights and thought he looked bright last season. I hope Olise steps it up.

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