The next 6 games.

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stealthpapes
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Re: The next 6 games.

by stealthpapes » 23 Sep 2019 13:12

windermereROYAL Pretty horrendous league run coming up against current form teams
Swansea A
Fulham H
Bristol city A
Preston H
QPR A
Forest A

Fully expect us to be bottom 3 after that lot, would rip your arm off for 8-10 points but expect 4-6 somehow.


lol


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Re: The next 6 games.

by NewCorkSeth » 23 Sep 2019 13:18

URZZZZ
Snowflake Royal
URZZZZ
As someone said last week, we don’t want to become like Brentford with regards to XG. Their XG stats are consistently one of the highest in the league and they always sit in mid table

Sounds like we do want to be like Brentford then.


I wouldn’t want to become a team who consistently sit in mid table and get bullied in the majority of their away games. This season and perhaps the next, that’s fine but they never seem to make any progress, yet they consistently find themselves one of the top teams in the XG rankings

Almost like XG is genuinely a load of bollocks.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by John Smith » 23 Sep 2019 14:11

NewCorkSeth Almost like XG is genuinely a load of bollocks.

:D :D

Great post

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Re: The next 6 games.

by Stranded » 24 Sep 2019 09:21

NewCorkSeth
URZZZZ
Snowflake Royal Sounds like we do want to be like Brentford then.


I wouldn’t want to become a team who consistently sit in mid table and get bullied in the majority of their away games. This season and perhaps the next, that’s fine but they never seem to make any progress, yet they consistently find themselves one of the top teams in the XG rankings

Almost like XG is genuinely a load of bollocks.


It's not bollocks but is a flawed stat as it can be skewed by the match situation i.e. a lot of our high XG of late has been as a result of creating a number of late chances with all our attacking players on due to chasing the game, so isn't necessarily a fair reflection of how we are actually playing.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by John Smith » 24 Sep 2019 11:03

Stranded
NewCorkSeth
URZZZZ
I wouldn’t want to become a team who consistently sit in mid table and get bullied in the majority of their away games. This season and perhaps the next, that’s fine but they never seem to make any progress, yet they consistently find themselves one of the top teams in the XG rankings

Almost like XG is genuinely a load of bollocks.


It's not bollocks but is a flawed stat as it can be skewed by the match situation i.e. a lot of our high XG of late has been as a result of creating a number of late chances with all our attacking players on due to chasing the game, so isn't necessarily a fair reflection of how we are actually playing.

So how can a stat that is no good be anything other than bollocks?


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Re: The next 6 games.

by NewCorkSeth » 24 Sep 2019 12:50

John Smith
Stranded
NewCorkSeth Almost like XG is genuinely a load of bollocks.


It's not bollocks but is a flawed stat as it can be skewed by the match situation i.e. a lot of our high XG of late has been as a result of creating a number of late chances with all our attacking players on due to chasing the game, so isn't necessarily a fair reflection of how we are actually playing.

So how can a stat that is no good be anything other than bollocks?

I just cant get behind a metric that is based on how many shots you take. We take a fierce amount of crap shots from distance. Thats should count against us not for us.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by Hound » 24 Sep 2019 12:58

as do Brentford.

I think I made the comment originally, and it wasn't that I don't was us to become like Brentford, but that we are becoming like Brentford.

Did see something on twitter about the fact a lot of XG has been when we are chasing games late on.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by NewCorkSeth » 24 Sep 2019 13:03

Hound as do Brentford.

I think I made the comment originally, and it wasn't that I don't was us to become like Brentford, but that we are becoming like Brentford.

Did see something on twitter about the fact a lot of XG has been when we are chasing games late on.

Which makes sense. We have out-shot our opponents in every defeat bar the Hull match. Smacks of desperation.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by hughsies no.1 » 24 Sep 2019 13:38

Having Miazga back makes a massive difference IMHO and results will pick up.

Would stick to the 3-5-2 formation.

Would have Boye and Puscas up top on Saturday like how we lined up to WBA away a few weeks back. Confident those two are our strongest combo up top. Boye needs a run of games, has clear ability.

Top half minimum expectation with this squad and confident we will get it.

Tin hat on.


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Re: The next 6 games.

by Snowflake Royal » 24 Sep 2019 14:30

Too many people make the mistake of thinking that because xGs has a better correlation to success than other stats, that makes it a good measure of whether you are good or not.

As measures go it's still pretty shit, it's just better than very shit.

And it'll get worse the more clubs put emphasis on it and try to improve it in the mistaken belief it is causal to success.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by Millsy » 24 Sep 2019 17:12

I'm continuing to stick my neck out to say we are a very good team.

Sleeping giants.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by Forbury Lion » 26 Sep 2019 16:47

windermereROYAL Pretty horrendous league run coming up against current form teams
Swansea A
Fulham H
Bristol city A
Preston H
QPR A
Forest A

Fully expect us to be bottom 3 after that lot, would rip your arm off for 8-10 points but expect 4-6 somehow.
On the face of it that's a tough set of fixtures, but it may not be a negative.

It may provide a further wake up call to the players/manager/board that we need to up performance levels/make changes (not necessarily changing the manager)

The team may rise to the level of the opposition and maintain that level for the rest of the season

These teams - what are their fixtures like? maybe it's a good time to play them?

Fan expectations will be low - If we were playing the bottom teams we'll understandably be expecting a win, against top teams we'll be more accepting of a draw or slim defeat as long as the team give 100% on the pitch

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Re: The next 6 games.

by Hound » 26 Sep 2019 17:28

Tbh, none of those teams ‘scare’ me. We could beat any of them if we play reasonably well

Just what I saw vs Blackburn and Charlton 2nd half was so depressingly poor have very little confidence at the moment

Maybe Miazga coming back will give us the kick up the backside we need. Maybe underestimated how good he is


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Re: The next 6 games.

by Kitsondinho » 26 Sep 2019 20:11

NewCorkSeth
URZZZZ
Snowflake Royal Sounds like we do want to be like Brentford then.


I wouldn’t want to become a team who consistently sit in mid table and get bullied in the majority of their away games. This season and perhaps the next, that’s fine but they never seem to make any progress, yet they consistently find themselves one of the top teams in the XG rankings

Almost like XG is genuinely a load of bollocks.

Indeed. Until a team wins some silverware with XG, I shall continue to regard it with utter disdain......

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Re: The next 6 games.

by SCIAG » 26 Sep 2019 22:05

XG isn't bollocks, it's just some people read too much into it. It is a big improvement on "shots on target" for judging a team's overall play. It isn't gospel but it is a good indicator of how good the chances you are creating are (and consequently, whether your strikers are any good at finishing).

The other big problem with XG is that not only do many of its advocates not really understand it, but very few of its detractors do. People understand that it isn't perfect but don't understand what it does well, so just write it off because that's easier.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by royalp-we » 26 Sep 2019 23:49

If you asked me a couple of weeks back, 9 to 12pts. Based on the past couple of league performances - I see about 2pts from those fixtures.

Owners are going to be (understandably) pretty pissed off if we are still around the bottom in a months time. I hope Gomes can get some results - but I do fear the QPR game on the tv may be curtains if he hasn’t got us moving towards mid table.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by PistolPete » 27 Sep 2019 00:27

NewCorkSeth
John Smith
Stranded
It's not bollocks but is a flawed stat as it can be skewed by the match situation i.e. a lot of our high XG of late has been as a result of creating a number of late chances with all our attacking players on due to chasing the game, so isn't necessarily a fair reflection of how we are actually playing.

So how can a stat that is no good be anything other than bollocks?

I just cant get behind a metric that is based on how many shots you take. We take a fierce amount of crap shots from distance. Thats should count against us not for us.


Xg isn't based on how many shots a team takes! If it was that, it would be called 'shots at goal'.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by NewCorkSeth » 27 Sep 2019 08:06

PistolPete
NewCorkSeth
John Smith So how can a stat that is no good be anything other than bollocks?

I just cant get behind a metric that is based on how many shots you take. We take a fierce amount of crap shots from distance. Thats should count against us not for us.


Xg isn't based on how many shots a team takes! If it was that, it would be called 'shots at goal'.

How many shots a team takes and the "statistical likelihood" of those shots going in are exactly how XG is calculated. If a team take 20 shots in a game of which the majority are poor or from distance they could end up with a higher XG than a team who take 5 shots that are the result of good build up play.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by SCIAG » 27 Sep 2019 12:39

NewCorkSeth
PistolPete
NewCorkSeth I just cant get behind a metric that is based on how many shots you take. We take a fierce amount of crap shots from distance. Thats should count against us not for us.


Xg isn't based on how many shots a team takes! If it was that, it would be called 'shots at goal'.

How many shots a team takes and the "statistical likelihood" of those shots going in are exactly how XG is calculated. If a team take 20 shots in a game of which the majority are poor or from distance they could end up with a higher XG than a team who take 5 shots that are the result of good build up play.

But as you say, XG factors in the statistical likelihood of any given shot going in. If you take 20 shots which eat have a 10% chance of going in then you'd expect to score two goals. That's just as good as creating three chances which each have about a 65% chance of resulting in a goal.

My manager used to say "it takes seven shots to score a goal, so shoot seven times and we'll score a goal." Rubbish. But XG isn't rubbish. It isn't perfect, one XG is not a goal, but it is a useful metric that genuinely tells you something.

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Re: The next 6 games.

by NewCorkSeth » 27 Sep 2019 12:45

SCIAG
NewCorkSeth
PistolPete
Xg isn't based on how many shots a team takes! If it was that, it would be called 'shots at goal'.

How many shots a team takes and the "statistical likelihood" of those shots going in are exactly how XG is calculated. If a team take 20 shots in a game of which the majority are poor or from distance they could end up with a higher XG than a team who take 5 shots that are the result of good build up play.

But as you say, XG factors in the statistical likelihood of any given shot going in. If you take 20 shots which eat have a 10% chance of going in then you'd expect to score two goals. That's just as good as creating three chances which each have about a 65% chance of resulting in a goal.

My manager used to say "it takes seven shots to score a goal, so shoot seven times and we'll score a goal." Rubbish. But XG isn't rubbish. It isn't perfect, one XG is not a goal, but it is a useful metric that genuinely tells you something.

But the statistical likelihood of a shot going in is complete fairy dust. It's not something that can accurately be predicted based on information already existing.

For example the famous Roberto Carlos free kick. That shouldnt by any logic have gone in.

Also goalkeepers should affect how likely a shot is to go in. We saw that against Wolves.

As Snowflake said: it's not good enough to be taken seriously.

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