Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

WestYorksRoyal
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Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by WestYorksRoyal » 28 Apr 2021 10:19

This season, Norwich and Watford have gone up and Bournemouth look like finishing third and entering the playoffs as the form team. We could feasibly see the 3 relegated teams bounce straight back.

At the bottom, 2 promoted teams and a side with a points deduction will be relegated, which again is entirely predictable.

Next season, would anyone be the slightest bit surprised to see Fulham and West Brom take the top 2 spots.

It's always been an uneven league, but it seems to be getting worse. In recent years, Sheffield United have surprised people by going from L1 to PL relatively quickly. Brentford have broken into the upper echelons through very savvy recruitment and an excellent operating model. Barnsley are looking good this year but it's probably a flash in the pan; Dike is a great loan signing but they don't have the saleable assets to copy Brentford's sell and strengthen strategy.

In 05/06 and 11/12 we punched above our weight and beat teams with more resources than us. We were excellently run at the time as has been discussed. But is there more to it? Do the Dais simply own the club at a time where breaking into the Premier League is harder?

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Apr 2021 10:35

Seeing this an awful lot and it's irritating me, because it never actually seems to be based on anything but gut feeling and this season, which isn't even over.

I'll do a year by year comparison later to see if there's actually anything to it.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by morganb » 28 Apr 2021 10:52

If this is the case, how would you go about evening the situation up (Introduce a handicap system? Is there an equivalent to parachute payments (how does promotion prize money compare) for clubs coming up from League 1 so their wages are competitive?) or do you just accept that's just the way it is?

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by From Despair To Where? » 28 Apr 2021 10:53

Last time this came up I did some comparisons between the last 10 seasons and preceding 10 seasons but didn't post it because it was all very convoluted and was just a number bomb.

I think my general conclusions were that relegated clubs are now less likely to finish bottom half than they were 10 years ago, and I think parachute payments are probably a big factor in this. There wasn't enough variance to suggest they were more likely to go straight back up as the difference could be accounted for by 1 anomalous season in either group.

More marked though was the that promoted clubs are struggling to make as big an impact as 10 years ago. The clubs who come back up and are able to do well are generally clubs like Sheffield Utd, Southampton, Leeds and Nottingham Forest who have spent the bulk of the last 25 years at this level or higher.

Carrying this forward to next season, expect Hull to be comfortable and Peterborough to struggle.
Last edited by From Despair To Where? on 28 Apr 2021 10:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Hendo » 28 Apr 2021 10:54

From Despair To Where? Last time this came up I did some comparisons between the last 10 seasons and preceding 10 seasons but didn't post it because it was all very convoluted and was just a number bomb.

I think my general conclusions were that relegated clubs are now less likely to finish bottom half than they were 10 years ago, and I think parachute payments are probably a big factor in this. There wasn't enough variance to suggest they were more likely to go straight back up as the difference could be accounted for by 1 anomalous season in either group.

More marked though was the that promoted clubs are struggling to make as big an impact as 10 years ago. The clubs who come back up and are able to do well are generally clubs like Sheffield Utd, Southampton, Leeds and Nottingham Forest who have spent the bulk of the last 25 years at this level or higher.

Expect Hull to do reasonably well next season and Peterborough to struggle.


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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by From Despair To Where? » 28 Apr 2021 10:57

Yeah, but just seeing a list of numbers does tend to make people switch off even if you have a valid point. People are generally just interested in the conclusions, not the methodology and I can't be arsed to go through it again but I do stand by my conclusion. All the numbers do is prove you did the work.

I think also that in the 20 minutes it took me to work it all out, the discussion had moved on and it all seemed a bit irrelevant.

I just took the finishing positions for the Relegated and promoted clubs from 2010/11 to 2019/20 and compared them to 2000/01 to 2009/10. grouping them into Auto, playoffs, 7-12, 13-17, 18-21 and Relegated.

I think also that its difficult to draw too many conclusions from this season in isolation as the unique circumstances have favoured clubs with money and resources.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by windermereROYAL » 28 Apr 2021 11:38

The atrocious parachute payments give the relegated clubs a huge advantage allowing them to keep hold of their most prized assets, also covid is stopping some of the PL clubs picking them up due to ongoing financial difficulties.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Stranded » 28 Apr 2021 11:43

From Despair To Where? Yeah, but just seeing a list of numbers does tend to make people switch off even if you have a valid point. People are generally just interested in the conclusions, not the methodology and I can't be arsed to go through it again but I do stand by my conclusion. All the numbers do is prove you did the work.

I think also that in the 20 minutes it took me to work it all out, the discussion had moved on and it all seemed a bit irrelevant.

I just took the finishing positions for the Relegated and promoted clubs from 2010/11 to 2019/20 and compared them to 2000/01 to 2009/10. grouping them into Auto, playoffs, 7-12, 13-17, 18-21 and Relegated.

I think also that its difficult to draw too many conclusions from this season in isolation as the unique circumstances have favoured clubs with money and resources.


This was the point I was going to make - this season is just so different that I am not surprised we are generally seeing relegated clubs do well and promoted clubs struggle a bit. Last season finished on 22nd July and this on 5th September - there was less time and less movement in squads this summer than in any normal summer and in terms of finances the relegated sides were always going to be less impacted as they had sellable assets and therefore had money to spend and were also more able to hold on to talent like Sarr at Watford who, in normal times, would have gone.

There does seem to be a trend as FDTW says that it is getting harder to step up a level unless you are bouncing straight back so if Wednesday or Derby drop, they need to come back straight away else it will a) get harder to get out and b) get harder to stay up when they finally manage it. Look at Sunderland & Ipswich as examples - both felt they would bounce straight back but the latter is looking at a 3rd season down there and Sunderland, in their current form, look likely to face a 4th even if they do make the play-offs.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Sanguine » 28 Apr 2021 11:45

windermereROYAL The atrocious parachute payments give the relegated clubs a huge advantage allowing them to keep hold of their most prized assets, also covid is stopping some of the PL clubs picking them up due to ongoing financial difficulties.


Parachute payments are vital to the financial security of relegated clubs. At the very least when promoted, a club needs to pay Premier League wages, most need to improve their squad, or increase its useful size with better backup players. Without parachute payments, clubs would be destroyed by relegation.


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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by windermereROYAL » 28 Apr 2021 11:50

Sanguine
windermereROYAL The atrocious parachute payments give the relegated clubs a huge advantage allowing them to keep hold of their most prized assets, also covid is stopping some of the PL clubs picking them up due to ongoing financial difficulties.


Parachute payments are vital to the financial security of relegated clubs. At the very least when promoted, a club needs to pay Premier League wages, most need to improve their squad, or increase its useful size with better backup players. Without parachute payments, clubs would be destroyed by relegation.


I would suggest if the PP didn`t exist the clubs could manage their own finances better like writing relegation clauses into players contracts.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by From Despair To Where? » 28 Apr 2021 11:53

The average attendance in League 1 last season was 8,500. If you're a club like Sunderland or potentially Derby and Sheffield Wednesday, this should give you a big advantage if you can get 3 times the average gate each week because gate money represents a significantly bigger percentage of your income. However, this does assume the club isn't a complete basket case.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Sanguine » 28 Apr 2021 11:56

windermereROYAL
Sanguine
windermereROYAL The atrocious parachute payments give the relegated clubs a huge advantage allowing them to keep hold of their most prized assets, also covid is stopping some of the PL clubs picking them up due to ongoing financial difficulties.


Parachute payments are vital to the financial security of relegated clubs. At the very least when promoted, a club needs to pay Premier League wages, most need to improve their squad, or increase its useful size with better backup players. Without parachute payments, clubs would be destroyed by relegation.


I would suggest if the PP didn`t exist the clubs could manage their own finances better like writing relegation clauses into players contracts.


'If we go down your wages get slashed in half.'
'Ok, no thanks, I'll sign for a different club.'

Of course relegation brings wage bills down, but not to the extent of restoring pre-promotion finances. That's not realistic.
Last edited by Sanguine on 28 Apr 2021 12:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2021 11:57

windermereROYAL
Sanguine
windermereROYAL The atrocious parachute payments give the relegated clubs a huge advantage allowing them to keep hold of their most prized assets, also covid is stopping some of the PL clubs picking them up due to ongoing financial difficulties.


Parachute payments are vital to the financial security of relegated clubs. At the very least when promoted, a club needs to pay Premier League wages, most need to improve their squad, or increase its useful size with better backup players. Without parachute payments, clubs would be destroyed by relegation.


I would suggest if the PP didn`t exist the clubs could manage their own finances better like writing relegation clauses into players contracts.



EXACTLY

Parachute Payments are the problem.

Also if they slowly reduced the gap between Prem and Champ, that might help. A Prem1 and Prem 2 might be the answer. The gap is MASSIVE these days and stands to just get wider.


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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2021 11:58

Sanguine
windermereROYAL
Sanguine
Parachute payments are vital to the financial security of relegated clubs. At the very least when promoted, a club needs to pay Premier League wages, most need to improve their squad, or increase its useful size with better backup players. Without parachute payments, clubs would be destroyed by relegation.


I would suggest if the PP didn`t exist the clubs could manage their own finances better like writing relegation clauses into players contracts.


'If we go down your wages get slashed in half.'
'Ok, no thanks, I'll sign for a different club.'

Of course relegation brings wage bills down, but to the extent of restoring pre-promotion finances. That's not realistic.




Strange that it worked when the Prem was called the first division

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2021 12:01

PP, maybe not a great idea

FFP maybe a good idea but very messy

PP * FFP a total disaster slowly ruining the game and making the Prem a 23-team league.

"You won't exactly get relegated, but it's your year to keep the promotion/demotion illusion alive"

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Sanguine » 28 Apr 2021 12:03

Snowball
Sanguine
windermereROYAL
I would suggest if the PP didn`t exist the clubs could manage their own finances better like writing relegation clauses into players contracts.


'If we go down your wages get slashed in half.'
'Ok, no thanks, I'll sign for a different club.'

Of course relegation brings wage bills down, but to the extent of restoring pre-promotion finances. That's not realistic.




Strange that it worked when the Prem was called the first division


When the Premier League was the First Division, the financial disparity between the First and Second Division was not so wide.

Relegated clubs can't just lose even a majority of the extra costs associated with operating in a higher division simply by dint of being relegated. And nor is it realistic to expect clubs to compete in the Premier League without investing in a better, and more expensive, squad.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2021 12:14

Sanguine
Snowball
Sanguine
'If we go down your wages get slashed in half.'
'Ok, no thanks, I'll sign for a different club.'

Of course relegation brings wage bills down, but to the extent of restoring pre-promotion finances. That's not realistic.




Strange that it worked when the Prem was called the first division


When the Premier League was the First Division, the financial disparity between the two was not so wide.


Don'tcha love Capitalism?

Work to make the gap such that the leagues are more interesting?

Are we saying a way couldn't be found to level the playing fields?

For example, if a relegated club wants to cut salaries more than "reasonable"
the player can get a transfer with the Premier League compensating the selling club
appropriately (because they wouldn't get market value)

The PL already gives out 100 Million, then 70M, then 50M, so why not find a method
of allowed-transfers, subsidies etc, rather than bunging stupid amounts at relegated sides
giving them a too-great advantage in the Championship?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If it was announced that Parachute Payments were to be phased out, would sides NOT
want to go up? Eventually, promoted sides would learn they'd have to be more careful
and work on the Norwich-Burnley model.

ATM PP's and monster payment when IN the PL just allow clubs to go mad.

Each time there is an increase in TV money, just slowly change the percentages until,
maybe after ten years a Championship side really has a chance of staying up without
going stupid.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Sanguine » 28 Apr 2021 12:18

If you cut parachute payments, you either a) make it impossible for promoted clubs to compete (as they can't risk investment) or b) you see relegated clubs go bust. Simple as that. Not as easy as saying 'well let's wean ourselves off of that model', it was cause carnage for a decade or more. The horse has bolted.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2021 12:38

Sanguine If you cut parachute payments, you either a) make it impossible for promoted clubs to compete (as they can't risk investment) or b) you see relegated clubs go bust. Simple as that. Not as easy as saying 'well let's wean ourselves off of that model', it was cause carnage for a decade or more. The horse has bolted.


Parachute payments were once lower. I agree that changes would make life difficult, but one possible partial-fix would be subsidised transfers.

ie

Reading are in the PL and get relegated. Players not prepared to take massive cuts have the right to a transfer. The "reasonable price" for said transfers are set by committee (obviously related to previous price) and said players CANNOT be bought at fire-sale prices, but at something nearer the fair price. Also, maybe the PL could compensate the selling club, NOT to give it a profit, but to break-even or make small losses.

The idea that these things can't be done is farcical. If we invented a way to make more money it would be done in a month.

Mark my words, the extreme Capitalism engine will eventually choke the top two leagues and push the pyramid into penury with L1 players probably P/T.

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Re: Is the Championship becoming more predictable?

by retro royal » 28 Apr 2021 12:53

This season especially have given the relegated sides huge advantages over the rest, they still have big squads with quality backup, with the fixtures so congested it's helped them no end. FFP has ruined our chances with our owners not understanding the risks they took by not selling Moore and Loader to make a statement.

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