Magic Number

[Snowflake Royal]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

40 points is rarely enough to avoid relegation from the Championship.

Only two of the nine teams relegated in the last three seasons had less than 40 points. Not so much oldebiscuit as senilebiscuit. Someone thinks we're in the Premier League, don't they...

[SouthDownsRoyal]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

40 points is rarely enough to avoid relegation from the Championship.

Only two of the nine teams relegated in the last three seasons had less than 40 points. Not so much oldebiscuit as senilebiscuit. Someone thinks we're in the Premier League, don't they...

[Royal_jimmy]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

40 points is rarely enough to avoid relegation from the Championship.

And sometimes 50 isnt enough either!

[Stranded]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

40 points is rarely enough to avoid relegation from the Championship.

And sometimes 50 isnt enough either!

Quite. Its just a guide. As in the only way we can be certain of staying up is by getting 11 more points. Realistically, we do it by winning 1 drawing 2 and Barnsley losing a couple.

[Snowflake Royal]

Surprised how many people feel the need to come on the thread and say this is stupid and all you need to know is x thing, which is just their opinion or plain wrong.

I get not being interested in the magic number, but then why post on the thread? Its not like there isn't the Rivals or Relegation thread to post "we only need x wins or points."


I like it stranded. I think it’s great seeing it slowly tick down to mathematical safety.

[Hendo]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

40 points is rarely enough to avoid relegation from the Championship.

Few years ago I had a look and the average to stay up in the Championship was 50 or 51, IIRC. We've had some pretty poor teams over the last couple so that average might've dropped a bit, but certainly not to 40 points.

[Snowflake Royal]

This season is pretty exceptional in that 40 may well be enough for once.

[Mr Angry]

Put another way; both Peterboro now need to get 2 points per game (ppg) more than us to overhaul us, Derby (due to better GD) need 1.8ppg, and Barnsley 1.5 ppg.

If all 4 of the games in the next round of fixtures end in defeats for the bottom 4, that ppg increases - 2.5ppg for Peterboro, 2ppg for Derby & 1.8ppg for Barnsley.

I appreciate "until mathematically certain" etc etc, but I genuinely just can't see any one of those 3 teams suddenly finding that level of form from where they are right now.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

This season is pretty exceptional in that 40 may well be enough for once.

You have also got to remember that we've had 6 points deducted and Derby 21. Take them away and we are 22nd, 1 point behind Hull and we would be on 43 points. So, it's probably not "that much" different in terms of teams' overall form. It's obvious Barnsley and Peterborough are the poor sides in the league, but we've seen that numerous times as well, where 1 team in the bottom 3 could stay up and the other 2 aren't that good.

[Mr Angry]

I will leave Stranded to update the Magic Numbers officially, but I make it as follows:

Posh - 4
Barnsley - 6
Derby - 4

So, if Derby lose tonight against Fulham, a win for us on Monday v Swansea would relegate them.

If we do win on Monday, then Posh not beating Barnsley relegates them.

If we do win and Barnsley v Posh is a draw, then though Posh would be down, we would still need a point to be safe from Barnsley.

However, if Posh do win that game and we have beaten Swansea, then Barnsley would be relegated, whilst Posh would need to overturn a massive GD in our favour (more than 20 goals) in the last 3 games to prevent their relegation.

[paultheroyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 2 draws or 1 win and we are staying up!! URZ!!

[Snowflake Royal]

Can't believe you stole stranded's thunder Mr A. Especially when I was being so good not doing it.

Great to see those numbers marching down towards to 0.

[Stranded]

Was going to update after the Fulham game as been enjoying the delights of Strasbourg today but yes, Mr A, you are pretty much spot on with your summary.

Magic Numbers "official"

Barnsley 6
Peterborough 4
Derby 4

If Derby lose tonight, it drops to 1. Very likely at least one side drops on Monday.

At the stage now where the bottom 3 need to be perfect and we pick up 0.

With Birmingham's defeat we are also out of the bottom 3 if all points deductions were removed.

[Stranded]

As you were after Derby's win.

In short now, with one more win Derby and Peterborough cannot drop another point and Barnsley cannot lose again.

[SCIAG]

Any changes?

[Franchise FC]

Come on Stranded, get with the programme

[SpaghettiHoop]

Peterborough and/or Barnsley have to win all their remaining games and we have to lose all ours for us to be relegated.

[Stranded]

Come on Stranded, get with the programme

Sorry enjoying a sunny weekend!

So, where to start after that, oh yeah:

Derby 0

As for the other 2:

Barnsley 2
Peterborough 2

So either 1 win or as soon as one of those 2 drop points, it's done.

Barnsley at Huddersfield on Friday night, so barring a massive shock, they'll be done then.

So likely to come down to us v Peterborough on Saturday. They host Forest.

[paultheroyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!

[Millsy]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!

So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?