Magic Number

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 27 Dec 2022 21:23

Royal_jimmy
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7 more wins then

Is this an attempt at a joke or do you really just not understand this at all?

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paultheroyal
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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 27 Dec 2022 22:07

6 wins from 22 games.

The only magic number you need to know

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Re: Magic Number

by Franchise FC » 28 Dec 2022 08:17

Far be it for me to support Ian, but there’s nothing magic about guessing the number of wins/points required for safety

His magic number is an empirical certainty

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Re: Magic Number

by windermereROYAL » 28 Dec 2022 09:21

In reality nothing screams out at me that the 3 bottom teams can double their points tally with 22 games to go (23 for udds) 5 wins should do us, bound to be a few draws in there too

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Dec 2022 15:52

Franchise FC Far be it for me to support Ian, but there’s nothing magic about guessing the number of wins/points required for safety

His magic number is an empirical certainty

Credit to stranded for the idea, not me. I'm just updating because I like a countdown and seeing the number drop steadily.

Not sure why Ptr seems intent on hijacking this rather than setting up his own 'arbitrary number of wins I've decided equals safety' thread. But each to their own


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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 28 Dec 2022 18:38

Not hijacking at all. Magic number is 6 wins. Don’t be so sensitive about it.

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Dec 2022 18:52

That's not what a magic number is.

Not sensitive. Bemused.

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Re: Magic Number

by Mid Sussex Royal » 28 Dec 2022 19:10

It's 5 wins - on basis of current PPG for bottom three who are around 1 PPG, so the usual 50 point mark usually suggested at the start of the season still looks fair. The upper mid to lower mid is where its crazy but top and bottom are pretty much a usual season.

We've got too used to surviving on low 40's due to some very poor sides at the bottom in recent years.

Last season we would have only needed 3 points more than we have now to be safe

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From Despair To Where?
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Re: Magic Number

by From Despair To Where? » 28 Dec 2022 19:27

Lots of people missing the point, it seems.

The magic number is the points swing required to be mathematically certain of the desired result, in this case, safety from relegation . It's a precise number determined by actual results, not guesswork based on probability.
Last edited by From Despair To Where? on 28 Dec 2022 19:44, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: Magic Number

by muirinho » 28 Dec 2022 19:40

From Despair To Where? Lots of people missing the point, it seems.

The magic number is the points swing required to be mathematically certain of the desired result, in this case, safety from relegation . It's a precise number determined by actual results, not guesswork based on probability.


Exactly. Could have an entirely different thread based on number of points/wins needed for probable safety, but - that's not a magic number.

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Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 28 Dec 2022 20:23

Mid Sussex Royal It's 5 wins - on basis of current PPG for bottom three who are around 1 PPG, so the usual 50 point mark usually suggested at the start of the season still looks fair. The upper mid to lower mid is where its crazy but top and bottom are pretty much a usual season.

We've got too used to surviving on low 40's due to some very poor sides at the bottom in recent years.

Last season we would have only needed 3 points more than we have now to be safe


I think it's worth noting the points deductions in recent seasons though, we would have gone down on 46 points last season, whereas the season previous Derby would have been relegated on 44 (minus the points deductions) and Barnsley would have been 49 19/20 (minus Wigan's 12 points deductions)

When teams suffer points deductions the bar does tend to be set a little bit lower, but I think if anyone gets over 50 points and goes down they can count themselves pretty unlucky. I don't think that'll be the case this season, I think 22nd may be similar to Barnsley's tally of 49.

It does seem to be that the table appears quite similar this year to the aforementioned 19/20 season. 13 points separated the entire bottom half, as Hull finished bottom on 45 and QPR 13th on 58, so I can see this season finishing fairly similar. At the minute, 11 points separates Huddersfield who are bottom and Luton, who top the bottom half, in 13th.

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Dec 2022 23:04

muirinho
From Despair To Where? Lots of people missing the point, it seems.

The magic number is the points swing required to be mathematically certain of the desired result, in this case, safety from relegation . It's a precise number determined by actual results, not guesswork based on probability.


Exactly. Could have an entirely different thread based on number of points/wins needed for probable safety, but - that's not a magic number.

Amazed how many people cant grasp this simple fact even after its been covered multiple times.

It's an objective count down to mathematical certainty.

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Re: Magic Number

by Hendo » 29 Dec 2022 08:17



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Re: Magic Number

by Royal_jimmy » 30 Dec 2022 08:46

:idea:
Snowflake Royal
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7 more wins then

Is this an attempt at a joke or do you really just not understand this at all?


We get 21 points and hope 22nd and below drop 35 :wink:

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Re: Magic Number

by SouthDownsRoyal » 30 Dec 2022 08:52

What a baffling page of posts

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Hendo
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Re: Magic Number

by Hendo » 30 Dec 2022 10:19

SouthDownsRoyal What a baffling page of posts


You must be new here, etc…

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Re: Magic Number

by SouthDownsRoyal » 30 Dec 2022 10:22

Hendo
SouthDownsRoyal What a baffling page of posts


You must be new here, etc…


Lol

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Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 30 Dec 2022 23:09

I make it 54 now........

Rotherham in 21st are on 27, and have 21 games (63 points) left - total; 90 points.

We have 36 points.

90 - 36 = 54

(Hudds are in 22nd, but have played a game fewer than Rotherham and are on 25 points, hence me using Rotherham as the baseline for the Magic Number)

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 31 Dec 2022 00:31

Tick tick the magic number slips ever down, no win required.

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 02 Jan 2023 14:11

I make it 50 now.

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