Magic Number

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 17 Jan 2023 12:06

paultheroyal
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Snowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?

(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)


61 points to get a play off place - not a cat in hell's chance - 68 to 70 will be the bar and probably higher than that. So any team who manages to get 8 wins from the next 19 games will be in the play off place from 15th place Coventry and up :lol: :lol:

6 wins is the only magic number you need to know.

You've got that completely wrong. 61 is the total points we need to gain on top of what we have to guarantee a play off place.

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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 17 Jan 2023 12:08

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paultheroyal
SCIAG So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?

(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)


61 points to get a play off place - not a cat in hell's chance - 68 to 70 will be the bar and probably higher than that. So any team who manages to get 8 wins from the next 19 games will be in the play off place from 15th place Coventry and up :lol: :lol:

6 wins is the only magic number you need to know.

You've got that completely wrong. 61 is the total points we need to gain on top of what we have to guarantee a play off place.



:shock: :shock:

Oh god sorry - so 98 points needed to get in play off's!!! 106 must be under threat then!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Magic Number

by Silver Fox » 17 Jan 2023 12:51

Why do you keep commenting on something you clearly don't understand Paul?

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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 17 Jan 2023 12:53

Silver Fox Why do you keep commenting on something you clearly don't understand Paul?


61 is the total points we need to gain on top of what we have to guarantee a play off place.


Help me out here then - what does this actually mean?

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Re: Magic Number

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 17 Jan 2023 13:48

paultheroyal
Silver Fox Why do you keep commenting on something you clearly don't understand Paul?


61 is the total points we need to gain on top of what we have to guarantee a play off place.


Help me out here then - what does this actually mean?


It means we have to get 61 more points on top of what we've already got to guarantee finishing in the play offs, which in our case would be 98 points.

It doesn't mean that it will be 98 points to finish 6th (or higher), because teams are going to drop points throughout the season so it will probably be closer to the usual 70 point mark.

It's not really to be used for a practical sense until you start getting down to probably the last half a dozen games where the question of mathematical probabilities become part of the talk.


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Re: Magic Number

by Silver Fox » 17 Jan 2023 14:08

paultheroyal
Silver Fox Why do you keep commenting on something you clearly don't understand Paul?


61 is the total points we need to gain on top of what we have to guarantee a play off place.


Help me out here then - what does this actually mean?


It means that at present if we get 61 more points it will guarantee a playoff place

Obviously if* other teams drop points we won't need quite so many

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Re: Magic Number

by From Despair To Where? » 17 Jan 2023 14:26

Think of it as a swing in points.

For example, if we beat Blackburn, that's 6 point swing in our favour against them.

I presume you've heard of the term "six pointer"?

It's really not a difficult concept to grasp for anyone with a rudimentary command of KS2 Maths

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 17 Jan 2023 16:15

And this is about the 8th time it's been explained on this thread.

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Re: Magic Number

by Sutekh » 17 Jan 2023 16:56

Putting it into the terms so that an idiot like me can understand it, basically the magic number is currently the highest number of points that a club in the relegation places can get if they win all their remaining games. This is currently Huddersfield who could reach 86 points so at the moment Reading would need to get to 87 points to be sure of staying up which is another 17 wins or so.

Obviously, in the real world, 87 points won’t be the final “magic number” as clubs at the bottom aren’t all going to win every game they have left but each week that magic number should decrease to something far more realistic which is likely to be around the mid to high 40s by the end of April. So, in the real world, Reading probably just need another 4 or 5 wins to be assured of safety at this season’s end. And in any event 1 point per game left will be sufficient for survival.


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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 17 Jan 2023 17:14

Sutekh Putting it into the terms so that an idiot like me can understand it, basically the magic number is currently the highest number of points that a club in the relegation places can get if they win all their remaining games. This is currently Huddersfield who could reach 86 points so at the moment Reading would need to get to 87 points to be sure of staying up which is another 17 wins or so.

Obviously, in the real world, 87 points won’t be the final “magic number” as clubs at the bottom aren’t all going to win every game they have left but each week that magic number should decrease to something far more realistic which is likely to be around the mid to high 40s by the end of April. So, in the real world, Reading probably just need another 4 or 5 wins to be assured of safety at this season’s end. And in any event 1 point per game left will be sufficient for survival.

This, but minus the points we currently have, so 86 - 37 = 49

Every point we gain is removed from that number as is every point the team with the third lowest maximum points drops, until the number reaches zero and we are guaranteed to avoid relegation.

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Re: Magic Number

by From Despair To Where? » 17 Jan 2023 17:20

I'm just going to ignore Paul from now on. He's either being willfully thick or willfully petulant.

Either way, it's not a great look for a man in his age.

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Re: Magic Number

by Stranded » 18 Jan 2023 08:33

Snowflake Royal
Sutekh Putting it into the terms so that an idiot like me can understand it, basically the magic number is currently the highest number of points that a club in the relegation places can get if they win all their remaining games. This is currently Huddersfield who could reach 86 points so at the moment Reading would need to get to 87 points to be sure of staying up which is another 17 wins or so.

Obviously, in the real world, 87 points won’t be the final “magic number” as clubs at the bottom aren’t all going to win every game they have left but each week that magic number should decrease to something far more realistic which is likely to be around the mid to high 40s by the end of April. So, in the real world, Reading probably just need another 4 or 5 wins to be assured of safety at this season’s end. And in any event 1 point per game left will be sufficient for survival.

This, but minus the points we currently have, so 86 - 37 = 49

Every point we gain is removed from that number as is every point the team with the third lowest maximum points drops, until the number reaches zero and we are guaranteed to avoid relegation.


Point of order: It's not necessarily the team who are 3rd from bottom but the team who can get the most points, so for example, if Blackpool draw and Huddersfield lose their next game, then Huddersfield would still be the team to look at as they have 1 more game to play.

Anyway, I think the confusion for many is the high numbers involved - Magic Number works best with a smaller number of games and a smaller subset of teams, though is still an OK guide in the current guise.

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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 18 Jan 2023 09:24

From Despair To Where? I'm just going to ignore Paul from now on. He's either being willfully thick or willfully petulant.

Either way, it's not a great look for a man in his age.


Crack on - and totally pathetic comment from a grown man. That is the first time i have seen it explained from above - personal opinion i think its nonsense but each to their own. I will stick to my magic number of wins calculation and we will see where we are at the end of the season. Have a good day.


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Re: Magic Number

by Franchise FC » 18 Jan 2023 09:27

paultheroyal
From Despair To Where? I'm just going to ignore Paul from now on. He's either being willfully thick or willfully petulant.

Either way, it's not a great look for a man in his age.


Crack on - and totally pathetic comment from a grown man. That is the first time i have seen it explained from above - personal opinion i think its nonsense but each to their own. I will stick to my magic number of wins calculation and we will see where we are at the end of the season. Have a good day.

I understand not wanting to use the magic number but to suggest you have a magic number of wins is just :lol: . You're guessing. You may be shown to have guessed correctly, but you're still guessing

But each to their own - have a good day yourself

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Re: Magic Number

by From Despair To Where? » 18 Jan 2023 10:03

paultheroyal
From Despair To Where? I'm just going to ignore Paul from now on. He's either being willfully thick or willfully petulant.

Either way, it's not a great look for a man in his age.


Crack on - and totally pathetic comment from a grown man. That is the first time i have seen it explained from above - personal opinion i think its nonsense but each to their own. I will stick to my magic number of wins calculation and we will see where we are at the end of the season. Have a good day.


I mean it's only been explained directly to you about 6 times on this thread going back to last season, but carry on with your "it's not been explained to me" nonsense. That's why I called you willfully thick. It's all there in black and white.

If you think it's nonsense then ignore it and use another thread, not the thread that was started specifically for the magic number. That's why I called you willfully petulant.

Anyway, apologies for stooping to your level.
Last edited by From Despair To Where? on 18 Jan 2023 10:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Magic Number

by paultheroyal » 18 Jan 2023 10:04

6 wins from safety - hopefully 5 come Saturday night.

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Re: Magic Number

by Snowflake Royal » 18 Jan 2023 13:18

Stranded
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Sutekh Putting it into the terms so that an idiot like me can understand it, basically the magic number is currently the highest number of points that a club in the relegation places can get if they win all their remaining games. This is currently Huddersfield who could reach 86 points so at the moment Reading would need to get to 87 points to be sure of staying up which is another 17 wins or so.

Obviously, in the real world, 87 points won’t be the final “magic number” as clubs at the bottom aren’t all going to win every game they have left but each week that magic number should decrease to something far more realistic which is likely to be around the mid to high 40s by the end of April. So, in the real world, Reading probably just need another 4 or 5 wins to be assured of safety at this season’s end. And in any event 1 point per game left will be sufficient for survival.

This, but minus the points we currently have, so 86 - 37 = 49

Every point we gain is removed from that number as is every point the team with the third lowest maximum points drops, until the number reaches zero and we are guaranteed to avoid relegation.


Point of order: It's not necessarily the team who are 3rd from bottom but the team who can get the most points, so for example, if Blackpool draw and Huddersfield lose their next game, then Huddersfield would still be the team to look at as they have 1 more game to play.

Anyway, I think the confusion for many is the high numbers involved - Magic Number works best with a smaller number of games and a smaller subset of teams, though is still an OK guide in the current guise.

Agree, why I said third lowest max.

I quite enjoy a countdown... by the time you get to the lower numbers for safety, you're probably not even looking at it anymore unless you're in the bottom 6, because you'll be so clear.

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Re: Magic Number

by Harrison Delbridge » 18 Jan 2023 13:19

paultheroyal 6 wins from safety - hopefully 5 come Saturday night.


Let us hope

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Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 19 Jan 2023 18:20

Just for a bit of perspective, Burnley's Magic Number is 27......

Huddersfield - 20 games to go (max 60 additional points) + 26 points already gained = 86 points

Burnley - 59 points already gained.

86 minus 59 = 27

:D

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Re: Magic Number

by Mr Angry » 19 Jan 2023 18:23

Or, more relevantly, their Promotion Magic Number is still 41

Watford (currently 3rd) have 19 games left (57 points) added to their existing 43 points gives them 100 points.

Subtract Burnley's 59 points from 100, gives you 41 points as Burnley's Magic Number.

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