League One - Your Expectations?

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tidus_mi2
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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by tidus_mi2 » 05 May 2023 09:36

Snowflake Royal Goal for me is better season than recently with promotion within 3 seasons.

Minimum expectation is 14th next season. Ideally pushing for POs / autos.

Start rebuilding the club on a sustainable footing with a medium term plan rather than short term reacting and only thinking of the immediate season and problem.

Hoping to see plenty of youth players breaking through.

Yeah I think that's a sensible point of view, I also don't want to attack anyone's point of view but even if we recruit terribly I don't think we'd ever be at risk of relegation.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Linden Jones' Tash » 05 May 2023 09:50

Snowflake Royal
Linden Jones' Tash I don't get how we rebuild given the dramatic drop in revenue in L1.... Unless the owner gambles again and supports an (unsustainable for L1) budget for 1 season... Which will lead to more problems if it fails.

And given the grief he's getting for investment/spend/loading debt to date, why should he?...

Financially this is Armageddon or am I missing something?

We can rebuild because decent L1 players cost far less than Championship ones.

Even if we paid an entire 28 man squad £6k a week (we were capped at offering £8.5 to new signings previously remember) that’s under £9m quid wage budget.

With Moore, Joao, Meite and hopefully Puscas and Ejaria gone, that's about £5m - £7m off our wage bill of about £16m this season.

If we have any sense at all, anyone we've signed in the last couple of years will have a relegation wage reduction clause given the restrictions we've been under.

We have a coupleof players we can sell for reasonable money in the likes of Ince and Holmes.

If Wigan and Rotherham can manage on smaller crowds and income than we'll have, so can we.

We also have one of the most successful academies in the country that has churned out oodles of L1 and above quality players.


But isn't our annual revenue in the Championship something like £17M?

And I've read that dropping to L1 will have an annual impact of ~ £10M in lost revenue.

So even if we managed a wage bill of £9.5M that's still 135% of revenue, which is brilliant by recent standards, but surely unsustainable...

I hope that it's not existential, but remain to be reassured

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Green » 05 May 2023 09:56

Expectations are it will be a struggle, it's a tough league to get out of.

I imagine 2-3 years of mid table obscurity and dwindling attendances. Then maybe a couple of playoff final defeats.

Back in the championship for the 2028/29 season having come second in the league in 2028.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Linden Jones' Tash » 05 May 2023 09:58

tidus_mi2
Snowflake Royal Goal for me is better season than recently with promotion within 3 seasons.

Minimum expectation is 14th next season. Ideally pushing for POs / autos.

Start rebuilding the club on a sustainable footing with a medium term plan rather than short term reacting and only thinking of the immediate season and problem.

Hoping to see plenty of youth players breaking through.

Yeah I think that's a sensible point of view, I also don't want to attack anyone's point of view but even if we recruit terribly I don't think we'd ever be at risk of relegation.


Given the chasm in revenue potential between L1 and the Championship and between the Championship and Premier League, how do you build a sustainable medium term plan?

Doesn't it have to be a season by season bet, otherwise you don't have the quality of players needed to do anything?

I'm not saying I advocate it or like it, but I don't see how being "sustainable" and competitive are compatible - unless we get game changing uplift in commercial revenues to make it work - see PSG or Wrexham...

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Snowflake Royal » 05 May 2023 09:59

Linden Jones' Tash
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Linden Jones' Tash I don't get how we rebuild given the dramatic drop in revenue in L1.... Unless the owner gambles again and supports an (unsustainable for L1) budget for 1 season... Which will lead to more problems if it fails.

And given the grief he's getting for investment/spend/loading debt to date, why should he?...

Financially this is Armageddon or am I missing something?

We can rebuild because decent L1 players cost far less than Championship ones.

Even if we paid an entire 28 man squad £6k a week (we were capped at offering £8.5 to new signings previously remember) that’s under £9m quid wage budget.

With Moore, Joao, Meite and hopefully Puscas and Ejaria gone, that's about £5m - £7m off our wage bill of about £16m this season.

If we have any sense at all, anyone we've signed in the last couple of years will have a relegation wage reduction clause given the restrictions we've been under.

We have a coupleof players we can sell for reasonable money in the likes of Ince and Holmes.

If Wigan and Rotherham can manage on smaller crowds and income than we'll have, so can we.

We also have one of the most successful academies in the country that has churned out oodles of L1 and above quality players.


But isn't our annual revenue in the Championship something like £17M?

And I've read that dropping to L1 will have an annual impact of ~ £10M in lost revenue.

So even if we managed a wage bill of £9.5M that's still 135% of revenue, which is brilliant by recent standards, but surely unsustainable...

I hope that it's not existential, but remain to be reassured

£17m is a recent comparative high. £14m to £17m is fairly typical.

We should be able to bring in something like £8m - £9m in L1 in a decent season I'd think. And I think we can get our wage bill down a fair amount.


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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Wycombe Royal » 05 May 2023 10:00

A year of consolidation first....good teams are built on stability and consistency....look at Luton, look at Ipswich following their relegation.

Constant changing of management teams and players doesn't work. Now we are out of an embargo, we should be looking at younger players, on decent length contracts that a team can be built around with a few experienced heads thrown in.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Stranded » 05 May 2023 10:04

Linden Jones' Tash
Snowflake Royal
Linden Jones' Tash I don't get how we rebuild given the dramatic drop in revenue in L1.... Unless the owner gambles again and supports an (unsustainable for L1) budget for 1 season... Which will lead to more problems if it fails.

And given the grief he's getting for investment/spend/loading debt to date, why should he?...

Financially this is Armageddon or am I missing something?

We can rebuild because decent L1 players cost far less than Championship ones.

Even if we paid an entire 28 man squad £6k a week (we were capped at offering £8.5 to new signings previously remember) that’s under £9m quid wage budget.

With Moore, Joao, Meite and hopefully Puscas and Ejaria gone, that's about £5m - £7m off our wage bill of about £16m this season.

If we have any sense at all, anyone we've signed in the last couple of years will have a relegation wage reduction clause given the restrictions we've been under.

We have a coupleof players we can sell for reasonable money in the likes of Ince and Holmes.

If Wigan and Rotherham can manage on smaller crowds and income than we'll have, so can we.

We also have one of the most successful academies in the country that has churned out oodles of L1 and above quality players.


But isn't our annual revenue in the Championship something like £17M?

And I've read that dropping to L1 will have an annual impact of ~ £10M in lost revenue.

So even if we managed a wage bill of £9.5M that's still 135% of revenue, which is brilliant by recent standards, but surely unsustainable...

I hope that it's not existential, but remain to be reassured


You have to factor in sales as well. Key figure really is turnover - wages cannot be more than 75% of turnover next year by rule, 60% the year after if we don't bounce back - which is unlikely.

Turnover includes cash injection from the owner and money from sales. We should be able to attract a very decent L1 playing squad next year - the training ground alone will be a massive draw.

As for next year - 60pts would be my target - about as mid-table as it is possible to be and build from there.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Hound » 05 May 2023 10:12

Wycombe Royal A year of consolidation first....good teams are built on stability and consistency....look at Luton, look at Ipswich following their relegation.

Constant changing of management teams and players doesn't work. Now we are out of an embargo, we should be looking at younger players, on decent length contracts that a team can be built around with a few experienced heads thrown in.


Did Ipswich actually sensibly rebuild or have they just got lucky this year? Think they were rubbish for 3 years and have just stumbled across a decent manager this year

I don’t know loads about them but see they have Morsy and Luongo in midfield - 2 players you wouldn’t expect to last in the champ nowadays (obvs we turned down Luongo ourselves)

I don’t see any sign of them trusting youth players and getting them experience etc but maybe wrong

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 05 May 2023 10:17

Our situation reminds me a little bit like Burnley's from last season.

I've got a few mates who are Burnley fans and they were unsure of this season just because of the new ownership, loading the club with debts and they weren't expecting to bounce back at the first attempt and were anticipating bottom half in the Championship for a few years. Obviously they've had a fantastic season but it shows it can be done if you can recruit a good manager and good players.

That's what it will come down to, if we can recruit a good manager and good players then we will do well. I'm not saying it will turn out like Burnley, but it does show that it is possible.


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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Wycombe Royal » 05 May 2023 10:17

Hound
Wycombe Royal A year of consolidation first....good teams are built on stability and consistency....look at Luton, look at Ipswich following their relegation.

Constant changing of management teams and players doesn't work. Now we are out of an embargo, we should be looking at younger players, on decent length contracts that a team can be built around with a few experienced heads thrown in.


Did Ipswich actually sensibly rebuild or have they just got lucky this year? Think they were rubbish for 3 years and have just stumbled across a decent manager this year

I don’t know loads about them but see they have Morsy and Luongo in midfield - 2 players you wouldn’t expect to last in the champ nowadays (obvs we turned down Luongo ourselves)

They spent 3 seasons on the edge of the playoffs getting the club in order before making that push for promotion this season. You could argue that any team that gets promotion gets lucky, just like we did in 05/06 and 11/12. Sometimes it just clicks. Ipswich have been excellent this season. As for the two players you called out, like I said a team needs experienced heads in the side. Luongo hasn't actually featured that much, only appearing 13 times.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Hound » 05 May 2023 10:23

Wycombe Royal
Hound
Wycombe Royal A year of consolidation first....good teams are built on stability and consistency....look at Luton, look at Ipswich following their relegation.

Constant changing of management teams and players doesn't work. Now we are out of an embargo, we should be looking at younger players, on decent length contracts that a team can be built around with a few experienced heads thrown in.


Did Ipswich actually sensibly rebuild or have they just got lucky this year? Think they were rubbish for 3 years and have just stumbled across a decent manager this year

I don’t know loads about them but see they have Morsy and Luongo in midfield - 2 players you wouldn’t expect to last in the champ nowadays (obvs we turned down Luongo ourselves)

They spent 3 seasons on the edge of the playoffs getting the club in order before making that push for promotion this season. You could argue that any team that gets promotion gets lucky, just like we did in 05/06 and 11/12. Sometimes it just clicks. Ipswich have been excellent this season. As for the two players you called out, like I said a team needs experienced heads in the side. Luongo hasn't actually featured that much, only appearing 13 times.


It’s not really a criticism of them but to me it seems they’ve just done the same this year as the previous 3 years, but this year it’s clicked. They’ve bought in a few players, a number of loans

It just seems like a year of good management rather than a culmination of 3 years of building a team to peak this year.

In many ways you could argue we are well prepared to push to go up this year - slim squad, hopefully transfer money coming in. No long contracts on people we don’t want. Training ground etc

I just don’t see why we’d have any better chance of promotion in day 3 years time than we would next year.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Sutekh » 05 May 2023 10:23

Hound
Wycombe Royal A year of consolidation first....good teams are built on stability and consistency....look at Luton, look at Ipswich following their relegation.

Constant changing of management teams and players doesn't work. Now we are out of an embargo, we should be looking at younger players, on decent length contracts that a team can be built around with a few experienced heads thrown in.


Did Ipswich actually sensibly rebuild or have they just got lucky this year? Think they were rubbish for 3 years and have just stumbled across a decent manager this year

I don’t know loads about them but see they have Morsy and Luongo in midfield - 2 players you wouldn’t expect to last in the champ nowadays (obvs we turned down Luongo ourselves)

I don’t see any sign of them trusting youth players and getting them experience etc but maybe wrong


Think much of their success is through being intelligent in the transfer market, they brought in Freddie Ladapo from Rotherham and then Nathan Broadhead from Everton, after he had been shipped around on loan for several seasons. Of course having a decent manager helps too and Kieran McKenna was previously managing the Spurs then ManU u18s before taking over in December 2021 so perhaps there is a model there to take note of.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Snowflake Royal » 05 May 2023 10:39

Hound
Wycombe Royal
Hound
Did Ipswich actually sensibly rebuild or have they just got lucky this year? Think they were rubbish for 3 years and have just stumbled across a decent manager this year

I don’t know loads about them but see they have Morsy and Luongo in midfield - 2 players you wouldn’t expect to last in the champ nowadays (obvs we turned down Luongo ourselves)

They spent 3 seasons on the edge of the playoffs getting the club in order before making that push for promotion this season. You could argue that any team that gets promotion gets lucky, just like we did in 05/06 and 11/12. Sometimes it just clicks. Ipswich have been excellent this season. As for the two players you called out, like I said a team needs experienced heads in the side. Luongo hasn't actually featured that much, only appearing 13 times.


It’s not really a criticism of them but to me it seems they’ve just done the same this year as the previous 3 years, but this year it’s clicked. They’ve bought in a few players, a number of loans

It just seems like a year of good management rather than a culmination of 3 years of building a team to peak this year.

In many ways you could argue we are well prepared to push to go up this year - slim squad, hopefully transfer money coming in. No long contracts on people we don’t want. Training ground etc

I just don’t see why we’d have any better chance of promotion in day 3 years time than we would next year.

That's how it works for good teams.

Coppell finished outside thr play offs 2 years then won the league. Mcdermott got just outside POs, PO Final then won the league. Before we got promoted with Pardew, mid table, PO Final, 2nd.

Knock around the edge until you find.thr right combination and click. Not hit or shit every oxf*rd season


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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by leon » 05 May 2023 10:57

wrttop no expectations at all. We're shit.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 05 May 2023 10:57

Were Ipswich building from promotion or were they just underachieving for 3 seasons? Maybe they did need to get the club straight, get rid of a few players that didn't buy in to the manager/the club before being promoted gut it does seem like it's all come together this season, like it possibly should have done before.

I don't see why it has to take 3 years either, I'm not expecting us to bounce straight back, although I'd be anticipating we would be there or thereabouts. We have the infrastructure and the wealth to do so, we just need the recruitment of the manager and players to be good. It doesn't have to go in a fluid point where we go from mid table, to top half, to play offs etc. We can be in the play offs, not get promoted and then potentially be in the play offs again but go up, or whatever scenario.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Hound » 05 May 2023 11:01

Yeah I’ll stop banging on about Ipswich but can’t see how they will be any more prepared for the champ again after 3 years than if they’d just bounced straight back up. They are still reliant on loans, aging players and those who are prob borderline good enough for the champ - just like we will be next year

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by SCIAG » 05 May 2023 11:08

Royal_jimmy Players like McIntyre, Holmes, Yiadom and Azeez aren't championship quality.

lol
lmao

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Lower West » 05 May 2023 11:14

Good players on paper don't necessarily gel as a cohesive unit. Finding the right blend is more than likely going to take time. Trouble is these days in a results driven industry. Management teams are rarely given sufficient time to put their own identity on a squad. Too much in filling with loanees as well. Rather than focussing on recruitment for the longer term.

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by CountryRoyal » 05 May 2023 11:24

All ipswich talk is bollocks, their operating expenses in 2021/22 were £28,938,000 and wages were £16,432,000 - over double most of the division - sound familiar?

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Re: League One - Your Expectations?

by Chairman Mao » 05 May 2023 12:18

Looking forward to a new manager, new team, building a club sustainably, and hopefully something a bit different to us being down the bottom of the league playing appallingly dull football which has been us for most of the last 8 years

Plus can't wait to get out and about to some new towns/football grounds

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