6 more wins should do it...?!

[papereyes]

***NEGATIVITY ALERT***

If we lose to Man Utd and Chelsea (not an impossible scenario!) and the 5 teams immediately below us get one win from their two games, we will be in the bottom three. The tail end of the league is beginning to wag - apart from Derby and Fulham).

Next two fixtures for those 5

Boro: Blackburn (a), Wigan (h)
Bolton: Newcastle (a), Fulham (h)
Brum: Chelsea (h) Sunderland (a)
Wigan: Everton (h) Boro (a)
Sunderland: Spurs (a) Brum (h)

It will IMO, take a very unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 by the end of the month.

Yet Boro got a point with Liverpool and Brum one at Arsenal. Stranger things have happened.

It just annoys me that we're reliant on other teams results when we've had the chance to play and beat Bolton, Fulham, Sunderland (once), Birmingham and Middlesboro.

[Dirk Gently]

***NEGATIVITY ALERT***

If we lose to Man Utd and Chelsea (not an impossible scenario!) and the 5 teams immediately below us get one win from their two games, we will be in the bottom three. The tail end of the league is beginning to wag - apart from Derby and Fulham).

Next two fixtures for those 5

Boro: Blackburn (a), Wigan (h)
Bolton: Newcastle (a), Fulham (h)
Brum: Chelsea (h) Sunderland (a)
Wigan: Everton (h) Boro (a)
Sunderland: Spurs (a) Brum (h)

It will IMO, take a very unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 by the end of the month.

Yet Boro got a point with Liverpool and Brum one at Arsenal. Stranger things have happened.

It just annoys me that we're reliant on other teams results when we've had the chance to play and beat Bolton, Fulham, Sunderland (once), Birmingham and Middlesboro.

But we're not reliant on other teams' results. We only are if our next two matches against the big teams go to form but the matches of the teams below us don't.

You're being inconsistent - it's obvious to you that it's a given that we will get no points from the next 2 matches, but then :

Yet Boro got a point with Liverpool and Brum one at Arsenal. Stranger things have happened.

You can't have it both ways ....

[Stranded]

***NEGATIVITY ALERT***

If we lose to Man Utd and Chelsea (not an impossible scenario!) and the 5 teams immediately below us get one win from their two games, we will be in the bottom three. The tail end of the league is beginning to wag - apart from Derby and Fulham).

Next two fixtures for those 5

Boro: Blackburn (a), Wigan (h)
Bolton: Newcastle (a), Fulham (h)
Brum: Chelsea (h) Sunderland (a)
Wigan: Everton (h) Boro (a)
Sunderland: Spurs (a) Brum (h)

It will IMO, take a very unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 by the end of the month.

Yet Boro got a point with Liverpool and Brum one at Arsenal. Stranger things have happened.

It just annoys me that we're reliant on other teams results when we've had the chance to play and beat Bolton, Fulham, Sunderland (once), Birmingham and Middlesboro.

And we got 2 points from the two upcoming fixtures last season, we may well not do so this season but we may.

As I said it would take an unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 - not saying it won't happen but it would be unlikely for all 5 teams to go past us in the next 2 games.

[T.R.O.L.I.]

Brum: Chelsea (h) Sunderland (a)
Sunderland: Spurs (a) Brum (h)

It will IMO, take a very unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 by the end of the month.

Agreed, due to the two teams I've quoted above. Can't see both of them getting the required 2 (on GD) or 3 points to go above us...

[brendywendy]

***NEGATIVITY ALERT***

If we lose to Man Utd and Chelsea (not an impossible scenario!) and the 5 teams immediately below us get one win from their two games, we will be in the bottom three. The tail end of the league is beginning to wag - apart from Derby and Fulham).

Next two fixtures for those 5

Boro: Blackburn (a), Wigan (h)
Bolton: Newcastle (a), Fulham (h)
Brum: Chelsea (h) Sunderland (a)
Wigan: Everton (h) Boro (a)
Sunderland: Spurs (a) Brum (h)

It will IMO, take a very unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 by the end of the month.

Yet Boro got a point with Liverpool and Brum one at Arsenal. Stranger things have happened.

It just annoys me that we're reliant on other teams results when we've had the chance to play and beat Bolton, Fulham, Sunderland (once), Birmingham and Middlesboro.

And we got 2 points from the two upcoming fixtures last season, we may well not do so this season but we may.

As I said it would take an unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 - not saying it won't happen but it would be unlikely for all 5 teams to go past us in the next 2 games.

absolutely
the chances of 5 teams in the bottom section of the table getting two wins in a row vs anyone are very high

theres no mistaking we are flirting with disaster, and need some changes around the place one way or the other, and a couple of good signings would help lift the spirits of all

but even if we do manage to slip bottom three within january
im confident we will pull away after feb and hopefully be relatively safe by april. i have faith, though thats all it is

think the whole club does need to wise up and act to ensure that the worst cant happen.

[1960]

the chances of 5 teams in the bottom section of the table getting two wins in a row vs anyone are very high

They only need to get one win from two games.

On a more positive note Newcastle are in a bad way. 4 points ahead of us, but only 2 points from their last 6 games and in disarray. People have often said that a higher-placed team sometimes get sucked in. Norwich did this a few years ago. Wouldn't it be funny if Newcastle did a Norwich? Such a massive club...

Or have they too much clout to get badly burnt?

[weybridgewanderer]

the chances of 5 teams in the bottom section of the table getting two wins in a row vs anyone are very high

They only need to get one win from two games.

On a more positive note Newcastle are in a bad way. 4 points ahead of us, but only 2 points from their last 6 games and in disarray. People have often said that a higher-placed team sometimes get sucked in. Norwich did this a few years ago. Wouldn't it be funny if Newcastle did a Norwich? Such a massive club...

Or have they too much clout to get badly burnt?

I've mentioned to a few colleagues to watch Newcastle, a club heading south at a rapid rate of knots.

They ahve a couple of weeks to sort thing sout or they really are in the mire, they don't have the relegation "dog fight" experience of the Boltons , Fulhams and the Wigans

[Baines]

I've mentioned to a few colleagues to watch Newcastle, a club heading south at a rapid rate of knots.

That would help with Harry's commute though.

[andrew1957]

At the beginning of the season I graded each PL fixture as either a/ W winnable (a good chance of winning the game), b/ D draw (draw equals most likely result and unlikely to win) and c/ L losable (very unlikely we will get anything from the game). The decision for the result is based on past years results and whether teams had strengthened during the summer etc. Last year we did well against say Bolton but badly against say Pompey and I took this into account.

First half season

Man U A - L
Chelsea H - L
Everton H - D
Bolton A - W
West Ham H - W
Sunderland A - D
Wigan H - W
Pompey A - L
Derby - H - W
Blackburn A - L
Newcastle - H -W
Fulham A - W
Arsenal H - L
Man City A - D
Boro W
Liverpool H - L
Brum A - W
Sunderland H - W
West Ham A - D

Total 9W, 4D and 6L - I then assumed we would obtain an average of 2 points for each W (as clearly we would not win all of them), 1 point for a D and 0 points for an L - which gave a total return of 22 points - which turned out exactly right as it happened - although in reality we scored 4 extar points in the L games and and missed out on more than expected in the W games. PL football is a bit of a lottery and you never know what the next result will be for sure

For the second half the same exercise gives the following results

Spurs A - L
Pompey H - D
Villa A - L
Man U H - L
Chelsea A - L
Bolton H - W
Everton A - L
Villa H - D
Boro A - W
Man City H - D
Liverpool A - L
Brum H - W
Blackburn H - W
Newcastle A - W
FulhamH - W
Arsenal A - L
Wigan A - D
Spurs H - W
Derby A - D

This is 7W, 5D and 7L - which based on the same as before gives 19 points or 41 points in total for the season.

It is obviously true that in some years you will win unexpected games and also win most of your winnable games and equally you could under perform if the opposite occurred but I think the attached is likely to be a reasonable accurate barometer for survival.

I just post this as when hobnobbers look in isolation at a few poor results we can forget that we are playing very good sides like say Villa and it is not surprising that we lose these games - but Reading have been successful at picking up points against other lower ranked sides and even had a few unexpected results against so called bigger teams in the last 18 months. I still believe we will survive.

[Row Z Royal]

http://hobnob.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=70936

[The Quiet Man]

I salute your optimism regarding the away wins at Boro and Newcastle. Take those out and you have 35 points and a real buttock clenching finish on the last day of the season or 36/7 points if we drew one or more of those games.

[andrew1957]

I salute your optimism regarding the away wins at Boro and Newcastle. Take those out and you have 35 points and a real buttock clenching finish on the last day of the season or 36/7 points if we drew one or more of those games.

The term is "winnable" - does not mean we have to win them all and as I said we may also pick up unexpected points like Liverpool at home.

[weybridgewanderer]

Chelsea undefeated at home in home many?

We haven't won away from him all season

The script is written!

[seahawk10]

I think we will reach the low point of our season after the Man U game. At that point we may be in the drop zone (or just above it). But things will turn around in February and March and we will be on our way to safety. We will not be relegated this year. But we need to strengthen the team and address our needs in the summer.

[Chaney]

Chelsea undefeated at home in home many?

We haven't won away from him all season

The script is written!

have you been drinking?

[Platypuss]

***NEGATIVITY ALERT***

If we lose to Man Utd and Chelsea (not an impossible scenario!) and the 5 teams immediately below us get one win from their two games, we will be in the bottom three. The tail end of the league is beginning to wag - apart from Derby and Fulham).

Next two fixtures for those 5

Boro: Blackburn (a), Wigan (h)
Bolton: Newcastle (a), Fulham (h)
Brum: Chelsea (h) Sunderland (a)
Wigan: Everton (h) Boro (a)
Sunderland: Spurs (a) Brum (h)

It will IMO, take a very unlikely series of results for us to be in the bottom 3 by the end of the month.

Update:

The remaining games before the game with Bolton are:

Boro: Wigan (h)
Bolton: Fulham (h)
Brum: Sunderland (a)
Wigan: Everton (H), Boro (a)
Sunderland: Brum (h)

We now can't be in the bottom 3 before Bolton, even if we do lose to Chelsea.

Worst case scenario is 17th.

[poohs pure]

but can we get 6 more wins?

12 Jan Aston Villa A PREMIERSHIP no
19 Jan Man Utd H PREMIERSHIP no
30 Jan Chelsea A PREMIERSHIP no
2 Feb Bolton H PREMIERSHIP yes
9 Feb Everton A PREMIERSHIP no
23 Feb Aston Villa H PREMIERSHIP no
1 Mar Middlesbrough A PREMIERSHIP no
8 Mar Man City H PREMIERSHIP no
15 Mar Liverpool A PREMIERSHIP no
22 Mar Birmingham H PREMIERSHIP yes
29 Mar Blackburn H PREMIERSHIP no
5 Apr Newcastle A PREMIERSHIP no
12 Apr Fulham H PREMIERSHIP yes
19 Apr Arsenal A PREMIERSHIP no
26 Apr Wigan A PREMIERSHIP no
3 May Tottenham H PREMIERSHIP no
11 May Derby A PREMIERSHIP no

based on nothing more than complete and utter despair after the debacle againt pompey

also as a side issue what about £3m and Mark Noble for Shorey??

So apart from getting bolton wrong my prophecy of doom is starting to out.

can we really survive or should we now start building for promotion from the championship next season?

[poohs pure]

can we really survive

Not a chance, and I'll tell you why.
There's no tackling in midfield. We've got only one guy capable of making a tackle, and even then he is more likely to foul. (Hunt)
When Gunnarsson is back that will help, and even then he isn't really good enough for this division.
Basicly this is a matter of lacking suitable players for the task at hand, we didn't make the right moves in the transfer window and now we have to suffer the consequences.
There is no way we can avoid relegation. We can potentially risk a losing streak lasting until the end of the season at Derby. It seems increasingly plausible.

should we now start building for promotion from the championship next season?

That has to be our aim, to try and get back up again straight away rather than slipping back into obscurity.
Unfortunately we've got (and even recently signed) some players that won't even be good enough for the championship.

Have to go: Cissé, Fae, Murty, Oster, Hahnemann, Lita, Gunnarsson
Must keep: Shorey, Hunt, Harper, Kitson, Doyle
Have to sign: right wing, def mid, goalkeeper, defender, possibly another striker depending on who leaves..

Re the wrong moves in the transfer window. Do you think the problem has been the clubs unwillingness to pay big wages has resigned SC to not even bother trying to sign anyone of any note due to the fact he knows they will laugh at the offer. Leaving him to sign 'anyone' just to do a bit of a team refresh. If so is it time for JM to either finish the job he started 15 years ago or to hand the reigns to someone else who wants to play billy big time?

[Leamington Royal]

can we really survive

Not a chance, and I'll tell you why.
There's no tackling in midfield. We've got only one guy capable of making a tackle, and even then he is more likely to foul. (Hunt)
When Gunnarsson is back that will help, and even then he isn't really good enough for this division.
Basicly this is a matter of lacking suitable players for the task at hand, we didn't make the right moves in the transfer window and now we have to suffer the consequences.
There is no way we can avoid relegation. We can potentially risk a losing streak lasting until the end of the season at Derby. It seems increasingly plausible.

should we now start building for promotion from the championship next season?

That has to be our aim, to try and get back up again straight away rather than slipping back into obscurity.
Unfortunately we've got (and even recently signed) some players that won't even be good enough for the championship.

Have to go: Cissé, Fae, Murty, Oster, Hahnemann, Lita, Gunnarsson
Must keep: Shorey, Hunt, Harper, Kitson, Doyle
Have to sign: right wing, def mid, goalkeeper, defender, possibly another striker depending on who leaves..

I agree with some of your points Ideal, particularly about failing to bring more bite to our centre midfield, but how bizarre to suggest we start building for Championship football.

We can't sign or sell any players, so we can't do so in terms of new faces.

We are still only 1 point off the team we need to finish above (and play them at home). I firmly believe that now is the right time to change the starting 11, and that should mean more than just swapping Lita for Doyle, but we have a lot of weak nervous teams to play still and certainly still have the opportunity to turn it round if the manager is able to make the right decisions. I don't see what good 'building for Championship football' will do. Isn't that what the summer break is for?

[Ozymandias]

can we really survive

Not a chance, and I'll tell you why.
There's no tackling in midfield. We've got only one guy capable of making a tackle, and even then he is more likely to foul. (Hunt)
When Gunnarsson is back that will help, and even then he isn't really good enough for this division.
Basicly this is a matter of lacking suitable players for the task at hand, we didn't make the right moves in the transfer window and now we have to suffer the consequences.
There is no way we can avoid relegation. We can potentially risk a losing streak lasting until the end of the season at Derby. It seems increasingly plausible.

should we now start building for promotion from the championship next season?

That has to be our aim, to try and get back up again straight away rather than slipping back into obscurity.
Unfortunately we've got (and even recently signed) some players that won't even be good enough for the championship.

Have to go: Cissé, Fae, Murty, Oster, Hahnemann, Lita, Gunnarsson
Must keep: Shorey, Hunt, Harper, Kitson, Doyle
Have to sign: right wing, def mid, goalkeeper, defender, possibly another striker depending on who leaves..

It's a sad day when we're looking to Gunnarson to try to shore things up.

For next season, we need to Keep Cissé & Fae, and give them 5 games eachAgree about Murty, Oster, Gunnar and USA. I'd keep Lita. he's done feck all this season so we wouldn't get any decent offers, play him and then dump him in January.