THE BETTING THREAD

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Betting is so often about value and IMHO this represents value, win or lose.

Wholeheartedly agree. Where most people go wrong with betting is failing to understand this concept. I can accept having losing bets no problems if they are value because long term you will win.

lol...how are you two clowns calculating value,

if you can't calculate prices how can you assess value?

[South Coast Royal]

Betting is so often about value and IMHO this represents value, win or lose.

Wholeheartedly agree. Where most people go wrong with betting is failing to understand this concept. I can accept having losing bets no problems if they are value because long term you will win.

lol...how are you two clowns calculating value,

if you can't calculate prices how can you assess value?

Clowns?
And you wonder why people don't like you.

[LWJ]

Betting is so often about value and IMHO this represents value, win or lose.

Wholeheartedly agree. Where most people go wrong with betting is failing to understand this concept. I can accept having losing bets no problems if they are value because long term you will win.

lol...how are you two clowns calculating value,

if you can't calculate prices how can you assess value?

RG30 works in the industry

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Wholeheartedly agree. Where most people go wrong with betting is failing to understand this concept. I can accept having losing bets no problems if they are value because long term you will win.

lol...how are you two clowns calculating value,

if you can't calculate prices how can you assess value?

RG30 works in the industry

Doesn't mean he can calculate prices! He might be the tea-lady!

Which aren't really that difficult but there are lots of different models used to assess them

[RG30]

Just get a half decent quant to build an ELO rating system, add a few variables and you can get your basic tissue and all the derived markets come off that. Job done. Hardly rocket science.

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Just get a half decent quant to build an ELO rating system, add a few variables and you can get your basic tissue and all the derived markets come off that. Job done. Hardly rocket science.

Building a house is easy, just get a half-decent builder in and then I'll hang up the pictures

I am a quant btw

[South Coast Royal]

Over 2.5 goals in Reading's game (surely with two dodgy defences there will be goals?)
Over 3.5 bookings in Man Utd v Everton games

The double comes to approx 3/1

Don't fancy much else but Liverpool at nearly 2/1 at home to City seems a great price-can't remember Liverpool EVER being as long a price as that for a home game especially being top of the league and highest goalscorers.
I would have made them about 5/4.

Betting is so often about value and IMHO this represents value, win or lose.
As a comparison 13th placed Portsmouth are about the same price in their home game against top of the table Sunderland. as are
17th placed Carlisle at home to top of the table Forest Green.

Win some, lose some.

In the Reading game if a team has 25 goal attempts you expect them to score a goal or two.
In the Man Utdv Everton game Michael Oliver booked only two and when there was a mass brawl he didn't book any of them....on another day 2 or more might have been booked.

In the Liverpool game they went 2-1 up before City got a deserved, but deflected equaliser and Rodri came from nowhere to block Fabinho's tap-in to an empty net to make it 3-2.

I console myself for not being that far away from any of them and.....................move on.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Just get a half decent quant to build an ELO rating system, add a few variables and you can get your basic tissue and all the derived markets come off that. Job done. Hardly rocket science.

Building a house is easy, just get a half-decent builder in and then I'll hang up the pictures

I am a quant btw

That's not how you spell it.

[URZZZZ]

Nice 14/1 - three or more goals in each Prem game - returned £140, first proper win of the season

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Just get a half decent quant to build an ELO rating system, add a few variables and you can get your basic tissue and all the derived markets come off that. Job done. Hardly rocket science.

Building a house is easy, just get a half-decent builder in and then I'll hang up the pictures

I am a quant btw

That's not how you spell it.

People talk about value but don't know how to calculate prices i.e. a probability

How can they work out what value is...any other method is horseshit

[LWJ]

Just get a half decent quant to build an ELO rating system, add a few variables and you can get your basic tissue and all the derived markets come off that. Job done. Hardly rocket science.

Building a house is easy, just get a half-decent builder in and then I'll hang up the pictures

I am a quant btw

That's not how you spell it.

nice sig x

[South Coast Royal]

Nice 14/1 - three or more goals in each Prem game - returned £140, first proper win of the season

I reckon you are very pleased with Brentford getting their late winner.

[URZZZZ]

Nice 14/1 - three or more goals in each Prem game - returned £140, first proper win of the season

I reckon you are very pleased with Brentford getting their late winner.

Aye - don’t like Thomas Frank much and I like the work Moyes has done at West Ham but was a sweet feeling although it didn’t look like the goals were going to kick in at Anfield until late on

Partially annoyed as I was tempted to put some of the winnings on AC Milan at 5/2 at Atalanta, decided not to and they subsequently won 3-2 but a win is a win at the end of the day

[Simmops]

i lost a bet because of Leon not having a goal allowed at 1am mexico league game

[Pepe the Horseman]

Graeme Jones next Newcastle manager 50/1. Can see him getting on a temp basis until they decide who they really want.

[RG30]

Saka FG EW 7/1 365, England will be in for 4 goals minimum and will probably play 60+

[South Coast Royal]

Graeme Jones next Newcastle manager 50/1. Can see him getting on a temp basis until they decide who they really want.

Be careful-next manager betting often relates to next permanent manager.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Graeme Jones next Newcastle manager 50/1. Can see him getting on a temp basis until they decide who they really want.

Be careful-next manager betting often relates to next permanent manager.

10 games.

[South Coast Royal]

Graeme Jones next Newcastle manager 50/1. Can see him getting on a temp basis until they decide who they really want.

Be careful-next manager betting often relates to next permanent manager.

10 games.

Not a bad shout-if he were to do ok they might wait until the Summer rather than January to make their big appointment.
It might be worth calculating whether there are 10 games to be played before the January transfer window opens.

It would be a bastard if he only got 9 games.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Be careful-next manager betting often relates to next permanent manager.

10 games.

Not a bad shout-if he were to do ok they might wait until the Summer rather than January to make their big appointment.
It might be worth calculating whether there are 10 games to be played before the January transfer window opens.

It would be a bastard if he only got 9 games.

They've got 13 between now and Jan