by URZZZZ » 11 Apr 2019 13:55
by Hound » 11 Apr 2019 14:06
by Brain Traysers » 11 Apr 2019 17:24
RG30 Fivethirtyeight had Rotherham 41% chance relegation and us at 39% chance prior to last night's fixtures. Now gone 54% Rotherham and 22% ourselves. Still got a SPI of a bottom 3 side
by Brain Traysers » 11 Apr 2019 17:52
by muirinho » 11 Apr 2019 18:47
Brain Traysers ....
Striking that our starting two are almost identical, and Gunter only differs by being 4pp lower for passing accuracy. All 3 are incredibly consistent in only playing about 12% of their passes in the final third (vs 15.5% league avg)- this strikes me as quite different to the popular narrative of Yiadom and his surging forward runs as the evidence doesn't support him playing more passes in advanced areas.
....
Again our three full backs look very similar - with 16-20% of crosses being low (bang on the divisional average). I was surprised to see Yiadom (1.9/90) sat between Gunter (2.5/90) and Blackett (1.3/90) for crosses/90.
Both seems to offer some tentative evidence of a halo effect on (POTS candidate) Yiadom, presumably from him (i) being a new signing and (ii) for taking Gunter's first team place. Of course the missing and key piece is the defensive side of their games, where Yiadom might come out way in front of the others, but I'm not convinced (at a glance of whoscored it's much of a muchness).
The final thing that stood out was just how major an attacking threat Obita can be for us when fit - he averages 5.5 crosses/90 over his career, higher than anyone on the second chart based of this season (but I doubt he would have hit numbers quite so high with our current team).
by Snowflake Royal » 11 Apr 2019 19:19
Brain Traysers Away from relegation probabilities, Ram Srinivas (@ramesss) produced a couple of interesting charts on Championship fullbacks
Striking that our starting two are almost identical, and Gunter only differs by being 4pp lower for passing accuracy. All 3 are incredibly consistent in only playing about 12% of their passes in the final third (vs 15.5% league avg)- this strikes me as quite different to the popular narrative of Yiadom and his surging forward runs as the evidence doesn't support him playing more passes in advanced areas.
by leon » 11 Apr 2019 20:24
muirinhoBrain Traysers ....
Striking that our starting two are almost identical, and Gunter only differs by being 4pp lower for passing accuracy. All 3 are incredibly consistent in only playing about 12% of their passes in the final third (vs 15.5% league avg)- this strikes me as quite different to the popular narrative of Yiadom and his surging forward runs as the evidence doesn't support him playing more passes in advanced areas.
....
Again our three full backs look very similar - with 16-20% of crosses being low (bang on the divisional average). I was surprised to see Yiadom (1.9/90) sat between Gunter (2.5/90) and Blackett (1.3/90) for crosses/90.
Both seems to offer some tentative evidence of a halo effect on (POTS candidate) Yiadom, presumably from him (i) being a new signing and (ii) for taking Gunter's first team place. Of course the missing and key piece is the defensive side of their games, where Yiadom might come out way in front of the others, but I'm not convinced (at a glance of whoscored it's much of a muchness).
The final thing that stood out was just how major an attacking threat Obita can be for us when fit - he averages 5.5 crosses/90 over his career, higher than anyone on the second chart based of this season (but I doubt he would have hit numbers quite so high with our current team).
In 2013/2014 Obita won POTS in his first full season in the first team. Gunter was 2nd (2nd season) and Williams 3rd (1st season).
I think all players, unless they are particularly apalling or obnoxious, get a bit of a halo effect when they join first - because we are excited by what they can bring. But, as time wears on, we begin to forget what they can do, and are more aware of what they can't. Their faults become more prominent and irritate us more.
A bit like a relationship, all lovey-dovey to begin with, but after a couple of years, it's the teabags left in the sink, and clothes not put away that come to the fore.
And maybe a few years down the line, when you're with someone else, you start forgetting about the teabags, but remember the breakfasts in bed. The halo returns when you start comparing their good points to the faults of the one that's around right now.
So, as a general rule, if new players and players from long ago seem that much better than players that have been here a few years, at least part of that is going to be "new halo, reverse halo, renewed halo" effect.
Having said all that, probably still going to go for one of Martinez, Rino and Yids as POTS!
by Brain Traysers » 27 Apr 2019 01:03
by tmesis » 27 Apr 2019 11:34
muirinhoBrain Traysers ....
A bit like a relationship, all lovey-dovey to begin with, but after a couple of years, it's the teabags left in the sink, and clothes not put away that come to the fore.
by muirinho » 27 Apr 2019 11:35
tmesismuirinhoBrain Traysers ....
A bit like a relationship, all lovey-dovey to begin with, but after a couple of years, it's the teabags left in the sink, and clothes not put away that come to the fore.
Why does anyone leave teabags in the sink?
by URZZZZ » 27 Apr 2019 12:25
Brain Traysers Ram Srinivas (@ramesss) has provided another chart on Championship full backs, this time showing Yiadom as significantly different to Blackett/Gunter, with the second highest successful dribbles of all full/wing backs in the league, at 4.1 a game. Gunter and Blackett both hover just below the league average.
This combined with his lower-than-league-average numbers for (i) number of crossed per game and (ii) passes in the final 3rd (charts in earlier posts) suggests he is a (very) effective ball carrier but less active in the attacking department. Still, the ability to move the ball out from the back makes him a very useful asset, and is more consistent with the narrative of him standing out vs the other full backs, contrary to the potential new signing Halo effect discussed above.
by muirinho » 27 Apr 2019 13:02
URZZZZBrain Traysers Ram Srinivas (@ramesss) has provided another chart on Championship full backs, this time showing Yiadom as significantly different to Blackett/Gunter, with the second highest successful dribbles of all full/wing backs in the league, at 4.1 a game. Gunter and Blackett both hover just below the league average.
This combined with his lower-than-league-average numbers for (i) number of crossed per game and (ii) passes in the final 3rd (charts in earlier posts) suggests he is a (very) effective ball carrier but less active in the attacking department. Still, the ability to move the ball out from the back makes him a very useful asset, and is more consistent with the narrative of him standing out vs the other full backs, contrary to the potential new signing Halo effect discussed above.
This is why I get slightly confused when we play 5 at the back, playing Gunter and Blackett as wing backs doesn't work. They both need a winger in front of them to act as the "link up" player because they don't have the ability to take the ball and dribble through players. Hence, Wigan away earlier this season when we played our narrow 4-3-2-1 formation with Gunter and Blackett as the fullbacks we had no threat from out wide. Even the PO final there was no real threat from them on either flank
Personally think it should be Yiadom and Blackett as the two wingbacks when we played that formation with Gunter slotting in as the third CB or Gunter as LWB and push Blackett as one of the three CB's. Personally think the two he plays at the moment is the worst combination but what do I know
As for your other point, I know he has quite a few assists but to me, he rarely swings in a decent cross, he always seems quite awkward when in the opposition box with a real lack of composure. But, as someone pointed out, he is top of our assists so I'm probably missing something
by Brain Traysers » 23 May 2019 18:10
by Brain Traysers » 23 May 2019 18:36
by Brain Traysers » 23 May 2019 18:42
by Brain Traysers » 25 Jul 2019 22:44
by Hound » 26 Jul 2019 10:05
by Brain Traysers » 29 Nov 2019 01:26
by Hound » 29 Nov 2019 08:39
Brain Traysers It's been a while since I last looked in detail at how our underlying numbers were looking this season, and conveniently Oli Walker has done a better job than I could in a StatsBomb article "Diving to the depths of the Championship relegation battle"
Firstly, its very refreshing to not be mentioned explicitly in an article about the Championship relegation battle.
According to the StatsBomb data (which is probably one of the better data sources - certainly their xG model is more advanced by capturing things like pressure by surrounding defenders) after 17 games this season (i.e. before Leeds) we ranked:
- 6th best for Non-Penalty xG difference
- 9th best for passes inside the box conceded
- 7th best for Non-Penalty xG Conceded
- 8th best for Open Play xG
- 10th best for xG/Shot - I find this most interesting as before Bowen we were shooting (and scoring) quite a few from outside the area
Certainly not relegation battle numbers, just things not clicking on the pitch so far
by Brain Traysers » 29 Nov 2019 23:34
Hound
how do we compare this season (and the previous one) compared to last in terms of the XG - assuming its a fair bit better
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