by Millsy » 11 Oct 2019 11:44
by stealthpapes » 11 Oct 2019 11:52
by Royalwaster » 11 Oct 2019 12:00
by Pepe the Horseman » 11 Oct 2019 12:15
by URZZZZ » 11 Oct 2019 12:16
URZZZZ FTR we weren’t lucky under Stam. It’s a nonsense comment. We had luck on a few games but people who attribute our 3rd place finish primarily to just luck have no idea
by URZZZZ » 11 Oct 2019 12:22
Old Man AndrewsURZZZZ FTR we weren’t lucky under Stam. It’s a nonsense comment. We had luck on a few games but people who attribute our 3rd place finish primarily to just luck have no idea
We were lucky under Stam..... I do wonder if you've ever seen us play live at times Urzzz.
URZZZZOld Man AndrewsURZZZZ FTR we weren’t lucky under Stam. It’s a nonsense comment. We had luck on a few games but people who attribute our 3rd place finish primarily to just luck have no idea
We were lucky under Stam..... I do wonder if you've ever seen us play live at times Urzzz.
It’s just such a lazy comment. I’d expect it from someone like you to be fair judging by your usual opinions, but it’s so untrue. If you think luck can accumulate 85 points, then you need to start watching another sport
by stealthpapes » 11 Oct 2019 12:26
URZZZZ Luck can not explain a teams fortune/misfortune over a season.
by stealthpapes » 11 Oct 2019 12:29
by Hound » 11 Oct 2019 12:31
by Victor Meldrew » 11 Oct 2019 12:40
Pepe the Horseman "The harder I work, the luckier I get." - Craig Beazley.
by URZZZZ » 11 Oct 2019 12:47
Old Man AndrewsURZZZZOld Man Andrews
We were lucky under Stam..... I do wonder if you've ever seen us play live at times Urzzz.
It’s just such a lazy comment. I’d expect it from someone like you to be fair judging by your usual opinions, but it’s so untrue. If you think luck can accumulate 85 points, then you need to start watching another sport
We were very lucky over the course of the season yes, you just don't understand football well enough to realise that. We actually weren't very good the majority of the time and were let off the hook massivley in a lot of the games.
Like I said clearly you didn't go to many games that season.....
by URZZZZ » 11 Oct 2019 12:50
stealthpapes Once we've got that out of the way, there's enough data out there to be able to estimate the contributions of skill and of luck to football matches.
I think I've got a decent book that goes into it, explains how it comes to the answer. Give me a day.
by From Despair To Where? » 11 Oct 2019 12:52
by Millsy » 11 Oct 2019 12:56
by stealthpapes » 11 Oct 2019 12:59
URZZZZstealthpapes Once we've got that out of the way, there's enough data out there to be able to estimate the contributions of skill and of luck to football matches.
I think I've got a decent book that goes into it, explains how it comes to the answer. Give me a day.
Well, luck of course plays a part, there’s no denying that. Goalkeeper errors, bad referee decisions, ricochets etc etc...
But I just cannot possibly see how it can correspond to explaining how well/poorly a team does over 46 games
If you can provide the data to reject that claim, then I’ll concede the point but from where I’m standing, I don’t see how it’s possible
by Hound » 11 Oct 2019 13:06
by PistolPete » 11 Oct 2019 13:10
by URZZZZ » 11 Oct 2019 13:12
stealthpapesURZZZZstealthpapes Once we've got that out of the way, there's enough data out there to be able to estimate the contributions of skill and of luck to football matches.
I think I've got a decent book that goes into it, explains how it comes to the answer. Give me a day.
Well, luck of course plays a part, there’s no denying that. Goalkeeper errors, bad referee decisions, ricochets etc etc...
But I just cannot possibly see how it can correspond to explaining how well/poorly a team does over 46 games
If you can provide the data to reject that claim, then I’ll concede the point but from where I’m standing, I don’t see how it’s possible
My first point was, basically - how do you know 46 games is a big enough sample. Is it just a gut feeling? Is it just the way things have always been done? By what number of games do you think you've achieved a big enough sample?
As said in the second post, I'll have a look in the bookshelves tonight and see what I can find.
In any given game, there has to be a 'typical' value for the effects of random chance on the result of that game. It probably changes with the level as well (I can see it increasing as the teams quality get worse or more equal over the whole league). It almost certainly comes with error bars.
But its there, and once we've all accepted that, its a very different debate, wouldn't you agree?
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