CONFIMRED - The 2nd final countdown

[WestYorksRoyal]

Pure speculation on my part, but I don’t reckon that 5 May is Domesday. I reckon the league could suspend us on 5 May (whether or not we’re in the playoffs), but give us one more deadline to complete (mid/late May) before expelling us (with actually still a few days after that because it would take time to set up an EGM).

Clubs need to make plans for the following season, so it can’t drag on too long, and the league will want to give us every chance but equally not to undermine their disciplinary procedures. This way they follow through on the punishment (immediate suspension), whilst giving one (two?) more chance(s) to get our shit in order before they have to end it.

Agreed. Suspension likely, but nothing final until EFL AGM would be my hunch.

Key dates:
EFL extension 5 May
Play-off semis 10 May and 14/15 May
Play-off final 25 May
Last year's EFL AGM was 7 June
Fixtures released 26 June at 12 noon
League 1 (and 2) seasons start 1/2/3 August
Championship season starts 8/9/10 August

I think it's impossible for the EFL Board to expel us without the members voting for it; they don't have the authority. With Bury and Bolton they got members to agree to the deadline they set. So 7 June is probably the very very latest deadline possible.

But I think we're out of the play offs if it's not done by the end of the season. They do have authority to suspend without members voting on it.

[Armadillo Roadkill]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The club statement says the terms of the deal have been agreed. That suggests the price and any other considerations (e.g. extra payments in the event of promotion) are also set out, even if the contract is not yet signed.

Like you say Dai must know he's got to sell and sell soon. The club have presumably shown the EFL that the terms are agreed. It would take an act of outstanding self-harm for Dai to bugger around at this stage.

[WestYorksRoyal]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The club statement says the terms of the deal have been agreed. That suggests the price and any other considerations (e.g. extra payments in the event of promotion) are also set out, even if the contract is not yet signed.

Like you say Dai must know he's got to sell and sell soon. The club have presumably shown the EFL that the terms are agreed. It would take an act of outstanding self-harm for Dai to bugger around at this stage.

I don't think he physical can. Couhig has loaned the club money and has secured loans. Dai can see through the offer he has agreed or lose it for a lot less.

[Sutekh]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The club statement says the terms of the deal have been agreed. That suggests the price and any other considerations (e.g. extra payments in the event of promotion) are also set out, even if the contract is not yet signed.

Like you say Dai must know he's got to sell and sell soon. The club have presumably shown the EFL that the terms are agreed. It would take an act of outstanding self-harm for Dai to bugger around at this stage.

Is there any Reading fan that is 100% convinced Dai wouldn’t bugger around at this stage? No one will believe it until it’s signed, sealed and there’s a club statement from RC on the website saying it’s done (and even then there’d probably be some still not convinced.)

[Royalwaster]

This has to be seen as positive news.

Whoever the buyer is (assume Couhig), they are funding the club to the end of the process, so no chance of us getting any more points deductions this season.

It is obvious that the EFL have had it with Dai, and so would assume that their statement as to "progress" on the sale being shown hence us being given the extension needs to be taken at face value, though it is equally valid to assume that even if they thought there was no chance of a sale, the May 5th deadline is better for the integrity of the competition than pulling the rug now.

What can be assumed is that the May 5th deadline IS IT; it happens by then (and preferably by May 3rd), or we get kicked out.

Any more Dai sh1thousery - we get kicked out.

It really is as simple as that now; there are no more options, no more possible prevarications by Dai, or him trying to hedge his bets - it happens on or before May 5th, or thats it.

I think 5th May is it within reason ... there could be like a few more days added on just to keep us on our toes.

[Snowflake Royal]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The current deal will 100% factor in potential promotion. That, of course, doesn't mean Dai won't try to change the deal the more likely it looks to squeeze more money out.

[rabidbee]

Pure speculation on my part, but I don’t reckon that 5 May is Domesday. I reckon the league could suspend us on 5 May (whether or not we’re in the playoffs), but give us one more deadline to complete (mid/late May) before expelling us (with actually still a few days after that because it would take time to set up an EGM).

Clubs need to make plans for the following season, so it can’t drag on too long, and the league will want to give us every chance but equally not to undermine their disciplinary procedures. This way they follow through on the punishment (immediate suspension), whilst giving one (two?) more chance(s) to get our shit in order before they have to end it.

Agreed. Suspension likely, but nothing final until EFL AGM would be my hunch.

Key dates:
EFL extension 5 May
Play-off semis 10 May and 14/15 May
Play-off final 25 May
Last year's EFL AGM was 7 June
Fixtures released 26 June at 12 noon
League 1 (and 2) seasons start 1/2/3 August
Championship season starts 8/9/10 August

I think it's impossible for the EFL Board to expel us without the members voting for it; they don't have the authority. With Bury and Bolton they got members to agree to the deadline they set. So 7 June is probably the very very latest deadline possible.

But I think we're out of the play offs if it's not done by the end of the season. They do have authority to suspend without members voting on it.

Expulsion has to be ratified by an EGM, so they could do it without waiting for the AGM. The argument against waiting until June is that clubs need to know which division they will be in to plan for next season and offer contracts to players.

[Forbury Lion]

The statement said the prospective new owner is financing day to day operations pending completion of the deal.
With this in mind, to aid our promotion push which would benefit the new owner, do we think they've reinstated things like overnight stays before away matches and food?

[WestYorksRoyal]

The statement said the prospective new owner is financing day to day operations pending completion of the deal.
With this in mind, to aid our promotion push which would benefit the new owner, do we think they've reinstated things like overnight stays before away matches and food?

Our only remaining away game is one of the shortest of the season. Even with a bit more money I would expect them to travel on the day.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The current deal will 100% factor in potential promotion. That, of course, doesn't mean Dai won't try to change the deal the more likely it looks to squeeze more money out.

Aye, this is my concern. Perhaps it's a dumb concern. But what is Dai really risking if he tries to squeeze? What does he end up with if the deal fails? It’s not like Reading FC is just taken off him – disqualification seems to mean he just can’t be in charge of a football club competing in the EFL. Right. So what does that leave him with? Presumably a bunch of assets he can still sell – land, facilities etc. How much is that worth? Less? More? And don’t forget, we are dealing with a guy divorced from reality here – it doesn’t really matter if this potential worth is fantasy, it only matters that he might believe it.

[PieEater]

I reckon the extension is to give more time for the lawyers to hunt down Dai to sign the papers, he is probably hiding in some unknown place, nobody knows where he is and he's not contactable.

[Greatwesternline]

Things that have been mentioned:

- £25m price

- Dai not liking Couhig's business plan and ambition for the club first time round, and Couhig only paying £6m or something then.

- Couhig paying more of the money up front second time round.


My guess is, first time round the £25m was the maximum price that would be paid including performance related fees such as promotion, with Couhig only paying something like £6m up front, and Dai didnt like the look of Couhig's asset sweating of the club and shutting down Cat 1 academy, which might make RFC profitable for Couhig, but wouldnt make Dai likely to see the promotion benefits of the gap between 6 and 25 million.

This time round Couhig is offering more of that £25m up front, which has made it a less bitter pill to swallow for Dai.

It's all guesses, but that's my hunch.

[Extended-Phenotype]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The club statement says the terms of the deal have been agreed. That suggests the price and any other considerations (e.g. extra payments in the event of promotion) are also set out, even if the contract is not yet signed.

Like you say Dai must know he's got to sell and sell soon. The club have presumably shown the EFL that the terms are agreed. It would take an act of outstanding self-harm for Dai to bugger around at this stage.

The club statement is a propaganda tool. They can pretty much say anything. Even if true, a deal being agreed but not signed is still prone.

As for self-harm, like I said, the guy has clearly lost his grip on reality when it comes to business decisions. To you or I, scuppering the deal would be mental. To him, imagining a greater payout with some other deal – potentially (and most frighteningly) a non-football one – might appear self-preserving.

[Forbury Lion]

The statement said the prospective new owner is financing day to day operations pending completion of the deal.
With this in mind, to aid our promotion push which would benefit the new owner, do we think they've reinstated things like overnight stays before away matches and food?

Our only remaining away game is one of the shortest of the season. Even with a bit more money I would expect them to travel on the day.

If we get in the playoffs, we'll have an away semi.

[Scutterbucketz]

Yeah, I guess its important to remember Dai is essentially disqualified – its not really like he can drag it out to see if we get promoted and then opt to keep the club. But I still think there is some possibility of him changing the valuation* if Reading reach or even win the playoffs, and I hope the overshooting of the EFL’s “deadlines” isn’t indicative of Dai stalling to see if he’s selling a Championship club rather than a league 1’er.

Perhaps the current valuation takes the possibility of promotion into consideration.

*It's a good point that Couhig is probably well aware of this possibility and has put the necessary legal protections in place. But does that protect him or us (or both)?

The club statement says the terms of the deal have been agreed. That suggests the price and any other considerations (e.g. extra payments in the event of promotion) are also set out, even if the contract is not yet signed.

Like you say Dai must know he's got to sell and sell soon. The club have presumably shown the EFL that the terms are agreed. It would take an act of outstanding self-harm for Dai to bugger around at this stage.

The club statement is a propaganda tool. They can pretty much say anything. Even if true, a deal being agreed but not signed is still prone.

As for self-harm, like I said, the guy has clearly lost his grip on reality when it comes to business decisions. To you or I, scuppering the deal would be mental. To him, imagining a greater payout with some other deal – potentially (and most frighteningly) a non-football one – might appear self-preserving.

With the funds he’s being sued for in China i would imagine our football club is of little concern to him. Probably just can’t be arsed with it and the small change the sale creates.

[Hound]

I suspect Couhig has pretty much got Dai where he wants him now - interesting thing for me was that he is funding the club again. No way he’d do this unless he was virtually certain the club will end up with him one way or another

I think that court hearing was probably more of a win for Couhig than it seemed at the time.

Still a chance Dai may try to pull the plug but my guess is there is nowhere much for him to go now. Possibly he could sabotage the whole thing and force the EFL to kick us out but really see no benefit in that for anyone

[rabidbee]

With the funds he’s being sued for in China i would imagine our football club is of little concern to him. Probably just can’t be arsed with it and the small change the sale creates.

My suspicion is that whatever money he can make from selling the club is money he has a chance to squirrel away safely beyond the reach of the CCP, so it's in his interest to make as much up front as possible, as this might be his retirement/escape plan.

[stealthpapes]

Still a chance Dai may try to pull the plug but my guess is there is nowhere much for him to go now. Possibly he could sabotage the whole thing and force the EFL to kick us out but really see no benefit in that for anyone

All of the assets that he holds are based around a viable football team. They have much lower value if RFC don't exist.
So, that's it - there isn't a benefit, other than maybe getting some joy out of seeing fans and potential owner done over.

But it still could happen.

[Dirk Gently]

I'm half of the opinion that Dai doesn't care what happens, what we're worth or how much he can get for us - with or without a viable team.

We're an electric guitar he bought a few years ago and was briefly interested in, but are now stuck in the back of his wardrobe. Worth a bit if he stuck it on e-bay, but he's now interested in other things and just can't be arsed with spending the time and trouble of listing it and then packing it all up for the new buyer.

If he's really worth $3.7 Billion (GBP2.8B) an asset that he'll get GBP25 million for is like someone on £50 grand selling something for £450. Nice pin money, but hardly going to break the bank if you don't make the effort.

[Royalwaster]

I'm half of the opinion that Dai doesn't care what happens, what we're worth or how much he can get for us - with or without a viable team.

We're an electric guitar he bought a few years ago and was briefly interested in, but are now stuck in the back of his wardrobe. Worth a bit if he stuck it on e-bay, but he's now interested in other things and just can't be arsed with spending the time and trouble of listing it and then packing it all up for the new buyer.

If he's really worth $3.7 Billion (GBP2.8B) an asset that he'll get GBP25 million for is like someone on £50 grand selling something for £450. Nice pin money, but hardly going to break the bank if you don't make the effort.

If that were the case, he'd not have wasted money on lawyers. I think even for a millionaire £25million is not pin money ... I've known several rich people and they'll fight for any £ ... that's what made them rich in the first place.