Shane Long

[Ian Royal]

FACTS are useless without analysis, they mean nothing. They do not speak for themselves.

I am not arguing with the fact Kebe has the whatever most assists in the league. I am arguing that does not automatically mean he is the whatever most best winger in the league, or is consistently performing to a high enough level.

[Ian Royal]

And none of that means you just ignore peoples opinions or perceptions because you have a bunch of extremely limited numbers you wish to believe are the sole important thing to consider.

I have opinions and perceptions AND I KNOW THEY ARE OFTEN MISPLACED

You have opinions and perceptions and treat them as absolute

You never consider the fact that

(a) They are subjective and fallible
(b) You have no qualifications to suggest they are professionally driven

How do you know what I do or do not do when considering my opinion and posting? You don't. That is a ridiculous observation based on personal blinkered bias.

I do actually consider my personal baggage when making a point. I'm trying to have a reasoned debate with you on this, and all I'm getting back is:

"WAH WAH WAH You're stupid, your're an idiot, you don't have any qualifications

NUMBERS NUMBERS NUMBERS NUMBERS nothing else matters"

I do have plenty of qualifications that could be relevant to analysis, but unlike you I like to argue with what's actually posted, rather than try and undermine the person by attacking their qualifications which I knwo nothing about.

[Ian Royal]

By the way, I quote Ian Stewart, professor of Mathematics at the University of Warwick and winner of the Royal Society's 1995 Michael Faraday medal for outstanding contributions to the public understanding of science & Jack Cohen Biologist and science writer.

"Forget the facts it's theories that matter."

I suspect they are equally, if not more qualified than you to discuss facts and statistics.

[CMRoyal]

My first degree was in psychology

One example experiment... people are shown a drawing/drawings of an incident on a tube-train between a black and a whiteman

Almost all "see" the knife in the hands of the black man when it's
in absolute and totally clear fact in the hands of the white man.

A Kebe-hater has to learn to stand aside from his prejudices to make an accurate assessment of Kebe

Ditto SHunt, Harper

The manic responses on this list are mostly ridiculous

I don't think you ever studied the psychology of the football fan, did you? People here weren't born 'Kebe-haters', indeed if you were around when he first arrived you'd know that most people were willing him to be the Malian Thierry Henry, as some billed him. A lot of the criticism is born out of frustration and disappointment rather than the ignorance you rail against. True, there are extremes of criticism of Jimmy - is that any more ill-judged and ignorant than your blanket insults of the people on this 'list', as you call it? Maybe it's time you took a step back and made an accurate assessment of what people are actually saying about him rather than standing inside your own prejudices about the 'numpties' here.

[working class hero]

Thank f*ck that there is more joy to be had watching Kebe et al. than looking at statistics.

[Snowball]

One question Snowball....how are the Actim stats and the club stats compiled?

Here's a clue for you, people watch the games and feed back what they see.

Objective analysis is important, but your statistics just aren't being applied objectively or with much appreciation of what they represent and how they should be interpreted.

Actually, NO, (and yes)...

If you or I or Ian (or anyone) is watching a game, we rarely COUNT, quantify, qualify. The people who do Actim or Pro-Zone have systems which objectify their otherwise dodgy perceptions.

Let's use an example, SHunt. He is (allegedly) a winger and this list/the crowd is on his back. They are LOOKING for errors. When he does something good, unless it's spectacularly good, it's barely noticed. I was one of those who felt he needed dropping but at a recent game my son and I made a special point of clocking EVERYTHING he does. He tackles back, he heads clear in the box, he often gets in half-tackles which lets ANOTHER Reading player win the ball immediately after.

In one case I saw just that, SHunt's challenge causing the player to lose total control, someone else won the ball for Reading and someone near me said something like, "THAT's how to do it, Hunt." The reason the second player won the ball was because Hunt had broken up the rhythm.

SHunt, tho, as an attacking winger appears less successful, and he fails with the crosses, fails to beat his man, AND THIS IS WHAT THE CROWD/LIST decides to notice.

At one moment we moan about Kitson playing too deep and not being on the end of crosses (making the wingers look LESS effective because they passed into thin air)... but then he helps the midfield, clears from his own box...

Now we can either use vague, blurred, iffy subjective judgments or we can devise statistical ways of avoiding the errors of subjectivity. So if we are measuring SHunt we obviously would look at

shots on target
shots off target
goals

passes made
passes successful
successful crucial passes

quality crosses
poor crosses

winning tackles
partial tackles where a second Reading player benefits
missed tackles

"good" fouls (eg taking a card for the team)
bad, dangerous, "stupid" fouls, penalties given away

good support running
good decoy runs where he's "not in the game" but creates the opening by taking away defenders

clearances from our box
headers/kicks off the line
closing down opposition strikers
opposition shots blocked


Now are you telling me that the average punter quantifies these things? Ian was saying (just to think of another stick to use) that Kebe was getting more ball because SHunt was marked out of the game. I don't agree, but if he was, isn't that a contribution? It's like the contribution of Harps, or Gilberto when he was at Arsenal. It isn't always about goals, or crunching tackles, or marvelous passes.

The point is, to PROPERLY decide if a midfielder passes the ball well requires COUNTING and accurate, balanced, unbiased assessment. Go to a game, get a feel for who is good and bad, then watch it on TV replays half a dozen times and discover how wrong first impressions are.

[Snowball]

FACTS are useless without analysis, they mean nothing. They do not speak for themselves. I am not arguing with the fact Kebe has the whatever most assists in the league. I am arguing that does not automatically mean he is the whatever most best winger in the league, or is consistently performing to a high enough level.

And I am saying, without needing to analyse, "How come SHunt and Kebe are second and third in the league, higher than six-million pound man Joe Ledley, for example?" This list is subjective, myopic, knee-jerking, changeable. In other words dumb amateurs incapable of rational thought when they watch a game and even worse when they start spouting on this list.

We have to set criteria of assessment (which nobody has done) but a VERY important one for wingers is "good crosses" and assists. Now you can say Kebe "is shit" or "not very good" but the simple reality is he has made 9 goals (at least) and scored two. People say he's an awful shooter. They remember his bad miss early in some game, but what are the official stats? He is on target almost exactly 50% of the time (counting hitting the woodwork as on target)

43 27 4 63% accuracy Kevin Doyle
17 11 1 62% accuracy Kalifa Cisse
14 09 1 62% accuracy Dave Kitson
30 22 5 61% accuracy Noel Hunt
11 10 3 58% accuracy Shane Long (but the best shots to goals conversion rate)
08 07 0 53% accuracy Leroy Lita
09 09 1 53% accuracy James Harper
22 24 1 49% accuracy Jimmy Kebe
16 24 2 43% accuracy Stephen Hunt


But he must either be shooting from acute angles or straight at the keeper because his goals from shots, and goals from shots on target is not great. BTW if you use these stats to bash Kebe, then please not SHANE LONG is more deadly in front of goal than either Kitson, Doyle on Noel Hunt

Shots req for goal

Shane Long 03.43 (four times more deadly than Lita)
Kevin Doyle 04.11
Noel Hunt 05.18
Kalifa Cisse 05.80
Stephen Hunt 07.00 (distorted by the fact he takes our penalties. In open play, same as Kebe)
Dave Kitson 12.00
Leroy Lita 15.00
James Harper 19.00
Jimmy Kebe 23.50

[brendywendy]

you'd know that most people were willing him to be the Malian Thierry Henry

most is a laughably massive overstatement
most thought it was stoopid to bring in a failed 2nd division frenchie

[CMRoyal]

you'd know that most people were willing him to be the Malian Thierry Henry

most is a laughably massive overstatement
most thought it was stoopid to bring in a failed 2nd division frenchie

No, I maintain that even those who thought it was stupid to bring in a failed 2nd division Frenchie were willing him to actually be the Malian Thierry Henry.

[CMRoyal]

This list is subjective, myopic, knee-jerking, changeable. In other words...

...football fans.

I wonder if you're following the wrong sport? Chess would probably be more your thing.

[brendywendy]

you'd know that most people were willing him to be the Malian Thierry Henry

most is a laughably massive overstatement
most thought it was stoopid to bring in a failed 2nd division frenchie

No, I maintain that even those who thought it was stupid to bring in a failed 2nd division Frenchie were willing him to actually be the Malian Thierry Henry.

IMO most on here wanted another example of an appalling purchase to beat our manager with

but i see what youre saying

[RobRoyal]

Nope, why should I?

Why should I need to? These are official stats from a professional organisation,
an organisation that is presumably paid by results.

Most of this list are delude, knee-jerking amateurs.


If, WITHOUT looking, you were to list the best strikers in the Premiership, the best midfielders, the best defenders, and then went to the Actim stats for the Prem...

Midfielders, hmmm, Gerrard, Lampard, Ronaldo, Gareth Barry? Let's look... oh, seeee, the top 4 and Denilson in fifth, a non-sexy" midfieder that many Arsenal fans don't rate

Well, Arsene Wenger is also an professional that's paid to get results. He doesn't seem to rate Denilson. Now without even exploring what these OPTA stats mean, you're going to tell me that Mr Opta is a better judge than Wenger?

That's laughable.

[Huntley & Palmer]

A Kebe-hater has to learn to stand aside from his prejudices to make an accurate assessment of Kebe

Ditto SHunt, Harper

Am I to conclude that it is Hunt who carries a knife and not Kebe?????
WTF are you on about.

I am "on about" the fact that witness testimony is extremely flawed.
I am "on about" the fact that human perception is often wrong
I am "on about" the fact that biases affect belief and perception

You are one of those oxf*rd robots that send me junk mail tailored to my spending habits aren't you.

[Snowball]

Well, Arsene Wenger is also an professional that's paid to get results. He doesn't seem to rate Denilson.

Is that the Denilson who has started more times this season in the Premiership than any other Arsenal player?

Is that the Denilson who has started more times this season in the Champions League than any other Arsenal player?

[Snowball]

Well, Arsene Wenger is also an professional that's paid to get results. He doesn't seem to rate Denilson.

Arsenal Web Site

March

Denilson played every minute of Arsenal’s non-FA Cup matches in March. His highlight came at the Stadio Olimpico during Arsenal’s penalty shoot-out victory over Rome. The Brazilian showed cast-iron nerve to fire his penalty past Alexander Doni and after the game he admitted, “It was my first proper penalty”.

February

Denilson played every minute of Arsenal’s five February fixtures, maintaining his place at the top of the Gunners’ appearances chart for this season. Before the clash with Roma on the 24th, Arsène Wenger said that Denilson had a crucial role in the Arsenal midfield. “When you play against Roma you know there is one battle you cannot lose and that is in midfield because that is their strong point,” the manager said. “Denilson will have an important part to play.”

January

Denilson did not miss a second of January’s Premier League action and received some lofty praise from his manager on Friday, January 23.

"He's a very hungry player and he is 20 years old, plays every game under a lot of pressure,” said Wenger. “I have never seen him in one training session be a little bit within himself. He always gives you 100 per cent.”

[Snowball]

Well, Arsene Wenger is also an professional that's paid to get results. He doesn't seem to rate Denilson.

14.04.09 | tribalfootball.com

Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger says Denilson has been a revelation this season.

Wenger said: "Denilson has done very well and I think nobody gives him a lot of credit. But if you look at the stats of the season, he is one of the best players in the Premier League.

"He is maybe not a flashy player but an efficient player."

It is a measure of the youngster's growing confidence that the captain's recent return has not left him fearing for his place.

Arsène Wenger believes that Denilson can follow in Mathieu Flamini’s footsteps.

The French midfielder took advantage of Gilberto's absence after last summer's Copa America to stake his claim in the Arsenal first team. Flamini ended up making 40 appearances as Cesc Fabregas' regular midfield partner.

This season an injury to Abou Diaby has given Denilson his chance in Arsenal's 'engine room' and he will rack up his 50th Club appearance if he features at Bolton on Saturday. Wenger believes the Brazilian can make the most of his opportunity.

“Football is to be always ready when you get your chance,” Wenger told Arsenal.com. “To show that you have the quality. You can only do that if you have exceptional concentration level, exceptional stamina and motivation.

“Denilson has different qualities to Flamini but if you look at the numbers at the end of the season you will see he is a very good player. You look at the assists he has had since the start of the season, the balls he wins, the interceptions he has and the distance he covers.

“He is maybe not a flashy player but he is an efficient player.”

'Underrated' Denilson signs new contract

Arsène Wenger believes Denilson is underrated.

The Arsenal manager is highly-delighted to have secured the 19-year-old Brazilian midfielder on a new long-term deal with the Club. For Wenger, it demonstrates the giant strides he has made since signing from Sao Paulo on transfer-deadline day last August.

"I am pleased, very pleased," he said. "Denilson is a great player. For me, he is underrated. He does not get all the praise his performances suggest but that will come very quickly.

"He is the youngest player of our squad along with Armand Traore. He has played big games but he has shown he can cope with the pressure and produce quality performances. I expect him to make a big impact."


[Thursday, October 18, 2007]

[Sun Tzu]

So this Dennis Nelson, is he any good ?

[CMRoyal]

So this Dennis Nilsen, is he any good ?

Yep, has been known to murder the opposition.

[cmonurz]

So this Dennis Norden, is he any good ?

Btw, Snowball, your last 3 posts on this thread are SCARILY obsessive.

[Snowball]

Just making the point that, yet again, some twaddle, "Wenger doesn't rate Denilson", some incorrect opinion, has been posted as fact.

And let's remember that this thread was started by me to point out that Shane Long was under-rated.

He's now the club's third-top scorer despite having only made 9 league starts