Value on Long's Head?

[Archie's penalty]

If it helps set a benchmark, Newcastle are reported to be signing Watford's Danny Graham for £2.5M.

Good price they've got there (Newcastle). 4 for Long possibly?

[Mr Angry]

Watford are broke - almost in administration, we are not. We are not forced to sell, they are.
We can name our price.

Except we probably can't.

It is highly likely that there was a clause inserted in Shane's last contract that stated if a club comes in with a bid of £X Millions, Reading have to allow Shane to move if he so wishes.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see a team like Sunderland coming in for Shane; they will need to buy strikers in the close season and there is an Irish connection at the Stadium of Light as well.

[Woodcote Royal]

Scoring goals against Premier League teams in the FA Cup is quite different to scoring against them week in week out in the league. I don't doubt that Long can do a decent job for a mid/lower Premier League team but I don't think you can compare his cup exploits with league games.

Doyle's contribution to a struggling and workman like Wolves side is much more than his goals and again isn't comparable to Longs contribution (largely) as a sub for us.

Long gets a lot of millage out of running the channels and forcing mistakes out of defenders. His goals (and good passages of play) aren't generally products of good technique and intelligence but more effort and power. Personally I think the high you go the less you can rely on opposition mistakes and the more you need to be technically and mentally a better player.

It all boils down to how a team plays and the role they need a player to perform in that team. For some teams Long may be a better answer than Doyle, and in many teams Long may score more goals but that doesn't mean he's a better player than Doyle who has more to his game than Long (IMO).

None of which justifies your ludicrous assertion that Long is worth just £3m or, that the club who secured a £6m+ fee for a 20 year old with no top flight experience whatsoever would allow one of the best young strikers outside the Premiership to leave this club for half that figure............................our Chairman may be 70 but at least he hasn't lost his marbles.

[Victor Meldrew]

If Graham is worth £2.5 million unfortunately that IMHO puts Shane at about £2million.
Graham,like Holt,is IMHO a better all-round striker than Shane and is the top scorer in our division so I would expect him to cost more.
I think Newcastle would have to pay more than what they have supposedly bid which in turn would bring Shane's value nearer the £3million mark.
As for comparisons between Doyle and Long I do believe that Doyle was worth twice as much and his value has been enhanced this season probably making him a £10 million player.
BTW if we were to go up I would quite like us to be in for Graham.

[Royal Rother]

Long will command a significantly higher fee than Graham.

One has scored goals in the PL, goals against PL teams in Cup competitions, goals at international level, the other one hasn't.

There have been many many strikers who can score prolifically at lower levels but are unable to make it at the top level. Long's record will give a PL buying club far more confidence in the investment than a guy who has basically been a lower league striker for the last 8 years only ever netting one goal (that I can see) against a PL defence.

[Snowball]

Money where our mouths are?

Have a sweep for charity. £10 bet, nearest gets half the money, the rest goes to MS.

[Ian Royal]

I'm surprised at that little for Graham... I think he's probably a better player than Long, but I'd expect Long to go for a bit more for now. He's got PL experience which will probably inflate his price dramatically.

[Archie's penalty]

Money where our mouths are?

Have a sweep for charity. £10 bet, nearest gets half the money, the rest goes to MS.

Sounds good. But its null and void if he stays right?

[rhroyal]

Money where our mouths are?

Have a sweep for charity. £10 bet, nearest gets half the money, the rest goes to MS.

Sounds good. But its null and void if he stays right?

All goes to MS.

[Archie's penalty]

Money where our mouths are?

Have a sweep for charity. £10 bet, nearest gets half the money, the rest goes to MS.

Sounds good. But its null and void if he stays right?

All goes to MS.

Self-whoosh. I'm in if others will go in on it? Separate thread possibly?

[toppy]

in - transfer via paypal?

[Snowball]

in - transfer via paypal?

Started a separate thread as requested.

[Victor Meldrew]

Long will command a significantly higher fee than Graham.

One has scored goals in the PL, goals against PL teams in Cup competitions, goals at international level, the other one hasn't.

There have been many many strikers who can score prolifically at lower levels but are unable to make it at the top level. Long's record will give a PL buying club far more confidence in the investment than a guy who has basically been a lower league striker for the last 8 years only ever netting one goal (that I can see) against a PL defence.

One hasn't had the opportunity to play in the Premier League
One plays international football for a mickey-mouse side (Kevin Kilbane has had more than 100 caps)
One is a better all-round player than the other.
That same one has scored more goals in this division this season.
All of that makes no difference really as it comes down to what type of player teams want but I will be surprised if either go for more than about £3 million.
What price for England international Bothroyd when Cardiff bottle it again?
BTW if Swansea were to go up it would be interesting to see who (if either) Brendan went for having managed both Graham and Long.

[Royal Rother]

Long has scored a hatful of goals against PL and International teams so is far more proven than Graham and therefore less of a gamble. That makes him worth more money.

I probably haven't seen enough of Watford to pass judgement but nothing I've seen supports your view that Danny Graham is a better player than the Shane Long 2011 model.

[Cripple Creek]

The BBC's often woeful football gossip site mentioned that Everton were preparing a 6million bid for Long (this was a couple of days ago - apologies if already mentioned) but as with most of Auntie's second hand gossip this should be taken with an shovelful of salt.

[Hoop Blah]

Scoring goals against Premier League teams in the FA Cup is quite different to scoring against them week in week out in the league. I don't doubt that Long can do a decent job for a mid/lower Premier League team but I don't think you can compare his cup exploits with league games.

Doyle's contribution to a struggling and workman like Wolves side is much more than his goals and again isn't comparable to Longs contribution (largely) as a sub for us.

Long gets a lot of millage out of running the channels and forcing mistakes out of defenders. His goals (and good passages of play) aren't generally products of good technique and intelligence but more effort and power. Personally I think the high you go the less you can rely on opposition mistakes and the more you need to be technically and mentally a better player.

It all boils down to how a team plays and the role they need a player to perform in that team. For some teams Long may be a better answer than Doyle, and in many teams Long may score more goals but that doesn't mean he's a better player than Doyle who has more to his game than Long (IMO).

None of which justifies your ludicrous assertion that Long is worth just £3m or, that the club who secured a £6m+ fee for a 20 year old with no top flight experience whatsoever would allow one of the best young strikers outside the Premiership to leave this club for half that figure............................our Chairman may be 70 but at least he hasn't lost his marbles.

Where have I said he's only worth £3m then?

His worth and what he'll go for are two different things as I'll be amazed if he and the club hadn't agreed a 'value on his head' at the time they agreed a new contract back in November/December or whenever it was. Hammond has done a great job with these things in the past so I'm sure he'll have got that figure set quite high but I've always maintained that I think that will be around the £4-5m mark.

If someone had offered you £5m for Shane Long back in late November I think any Reading fan would've bitten their arm off.

[Harpers So Solid Crew]

Pardew has got to make it look like he is in the market, the Toon demand it.

Newcastle will be linked with loads of Champ players in the summer, then Pards will sign a couple of useless foreigners for about £20mill the pair.

Long wants to try the Prem again, he has said as much, then what else would he say, will teams pay what RFC want tho, or will they try a cheeky bid, and unsettle the player a bit, forcing our hand.

I would love to see Long go for £5m if we fail in the play offs.

Many do not seem to realise how much the club need the money, the operating costs are at a similar level to 2005/06, and income also similar, that year we lost about £6m, there is no one going to put that £6m into the club.

Far better to have some money in surplus, for a rainy day, or should I say a rainy season.

[Snowball]

If someone had offered you £5m for Shane Long back in late November I think any Reading fan would've bitten their arm off.

Not correct.

[Hoop Blah]

OK, I'll rephrase that bit to "virtually any fair minded and sensible Reading fan".

Plenty said they wouldn't have accepted £6m for Sigurdsson at the time but in reality those with their heads screwed on knew it was too good a deal to turn down. If we'd have been offered £5m for Long I think it would've represented even better business and would've been received with far far less criticism or disappointment than the Sigurdsson deal.

[RobRoyal]

If Graham is worth £2.5 million unfortunately that IMHO puts Shane at about £2million.

What does this mean? That because a similar-quality striker went for £2.5m we're somehow bound to settle for the same or a little less? What impact does Graham's fee actually have in the real world? We won't want to sell at £2m, so we won't. The only factors affecting Long's price are a) the buy-out clause b) what the buying club are prepared to pay c) what we are prepared to accept. If Long has a £3.5m buy-out clause and there's some serious interest in the summer, the fact that Graham went for £2.5 is totally irrelevant.