MACSTATS

[Snowball]

01 11 8 0 3 4 2 21 11 +10 24 2.18 Reading
02 12 7 4 1 4 2 30 12 +18 25 2.08 Newcastle United
03 14 8 3 3 4 0 25 18 +07 27 1.93 West Bromwich Albion
04 13 6 5 2 8 4 10 06 +04 23 1.77 Swansea City
05 13 6 4 3 5 1 16 14 +02 22 1.69 Coventry City
06 14 6 5 3 6 5 16 09 +07 23 1.64 Leicester City
07 13 7 0 6 4 4 18 14 +04 21 1.62 Nottingham Forest
08 14 6 3 5 3 2 20 18 +02 21 1.50 Doncaster Rovers
09 14 5 5 4 4 3 15 15 +00 20 1.43 Ipswich Town
10 14 6 2 6 3 6 15 19 -04 20 1.43 Sheffield Wednesday
11 13 5 3 5 3 4 17 18 -01 18 1.38 Cardiff City
12 14 5 4 5 4 3 21 25 -04 19 1.36 Preston North End
13 14 6 1 7 5 2 17 21 -04 19 1.36 Barnsley
14 13 4 5 4 3 5 15 13 +02 17 1.31 Middlesbrough
15 13 5 2 6 4 4 17 16 +01 17 1.31 Sheffield United
16 13 5 2 6 4 2 21 21 +00 17 1.31 Derby County
17 12 4 2 6 4 6 08 11 -03 14 1.17 Crystal Palace
18 13 4 3 6 2 3 16 21 -05 15 1.15 Scunthorpe United
19 15 4 4 7 4 4 18 22 -04 16 1.07 Blackpool
20 13 3 4 6 1 3 16 19 -03 13 1.00 Plymouth Argyle
21 13 3 4 6 3 6 13 25 -12 13 1.00 Bristol City
22 13 4 0 9 3 7 08 16 -08 12 0.92 Peterboro
23 12 3 2 7 1 6 11 18 -07 11 0.92 Queens Park Rangers
24 11 3 1 7 2 4 13 15 -02 10 0.91 Watford

[RobRoyal]

Snowball, can we have some statistical analysis of our recent form in terms of the quality of opposition faced? It seems that the average placement of the sides we've beaten has been less than mid-table, and we haven't faced any of the top 6 over this period, so constantly posting the form table and extrapolating that we're going to be in the playoffs next year is, I'm sure you know, pretty facile.

[Snowball]

Snowball, can we have some statistical analysis of our recent form in terms of the quality of opposition faced? It seems that the average placement of the sides we've beaten has been less than mid-table, and we haven't faced any of the top 6 over this period, so constantly posting the form table and extrapolating that we're going to be in the playoffs next year is, I'm sure you know, pretty facile.

I did that on another thread when Ian Royal "forgot" that Palace had been docked ten points.

As I said there, it isn't only "current league position" that matters.

For example, we are 14th or whatever, a bottom-half side, but you know a team
beating Reading right now is getting a very good scalp

Even the "form in 2010" doesn't tell a true story. For example we beat QPR AFTER THEY HAD FOUND SOME GOOD FORM
and had just beaten West Brom and A N Other and drawn away at Sheffield United

and remember many of these sides are lower in the form table BECAUSE WE BEAT THEM!

But the current form is here (our recent opposition in bold


01 11 8 0 3 4 2 21 11 +10 24 2.18 Reading
02 12 7 4 1 4 2 30 12 +18 25 2.08 Newcastle United
03 14 8 3 3 4 0 25 18 +07 27 1.93 West Bromwich Albion (2-2 draw and 3-2 win in cup)
04 13 6 5 2 8 4 10 06 +04 23 1.77 Swansea City
05 13 6 4 3 5 1 16 14 +02 22 1.69 Coventry City
06 14 6 5 3 6 5 16 09 +07 23 1.64 Leicester City
07 13 7 0 6 4 4 18 14 +04 21 1.62 Nottingham Forest
08 14 6 3 5 3 2 20 18 +02 21 1.50 Doncaster Rovers
09 14 5 5 4 4 3 15 15 +00 20 1.43 Ipswich Town
10 14 6 2 6 3 6 15 19 -04 20 1.43 Sheffield Wednesday
11 13 5 3 5 3 4 17 18 -01 18 1.38 Cardiff City
12 14 5 4 5 4 3 21 25 -04 19 1.36 Preston North End
13 14 6 1 7 5 2 17 21 -04 19 1.36 Barnsley
14 13 4 5 4 3 5 15 13 +02 17 1.31 Middlesbrough
15 13 5 2 6 4 4 17 16 +01 17 1.31 Sheffield United
16 13 5 2 6 4 2 21 21 +00 17 1.31 Derby County
17 12 4 2 6 4 6 08 11 -03 14 1.17 Crystal Palace
18 13 4 3 6 2 3 16 21 -05 15 1.15 Scunthorpe United
19 15 4 4 7 4 4 18 22 -04 16 1.07 Blackpool
20 13 3 4 6 1 3 16 19 -03 13 1.00 Plymouth Argyle
21 13 3 4 6 3 6 13 25 -12 13 1.00 Bristol City
22 13 4 0 9 3 7 08 16 -08 12 0.92 Peterboro
23 12 3 2 7 1 6 11 18 -07 11 0.92 Queens Park Rangers
24 11 3 1 7 2 4 13 15 -02 10 0.91 Watford

[Snowball]

I posted this elsewhere.

As you can see, many clubs did well before and after or before or after we beat them

QUOTE

It's a bit off to talk about where teams are NOW. WHY? Well, many sides beat us when we were cr@p, but if we get to 6th, and win the play-offs,
their supporters could say, "We beat Reading and they got promoted!"

So we should consider where the sides were WHEN WE PLAYED THEM.

Barnsley - 12th
14TH WHEN WE PLAYED THEM, BUT HAD HAD A TERRIBLE START THEN WENT ON A GREAT RUN.
OUR SECOND WIN AGAINST BARNSLEY WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN BARNSLEY'S THREE WINS

H Leicester FLC W 1-0
A Reading FLC L 0-1
A Preston FLC W 4-1
H Watford FLC W 1-0

Doncaster - 8th - fair play a genuine challenger

13TH WHEN WE PLAYED THEM BUT TIPPED FOR A RUN AT THE PLAY-OFFS AND "IN A FALSE POSITION"
AFTER A MID-SEASON BLIP... AFTER LOSING TO US THEY HAD THREE GOOD RESULTS.

H Reading L 1-2
A Leicester D 0-0
H Nottm Forest W 1-0
A Sheffield Wed W 2-0


Plymouth - 23rd

AND STILL 23RD BUT HAVEN'T BEEN PLAYING AT ALL BADLY SINCE THEY LOST TO US...
JUST TWO DEFEATS IN 8 GAMES, BEAT BARNSLEY AND BRISTOL, DREW WITH SWANSEA
LEICESTER, PRESTON AND COVENTRY

A Reading L 1-2
A Barnsley W 3-1
H Swansea D 1-1
H Leicester City D 1-1
A Sheffield Utd L 3-4
H Preston D 1-1
A QPR L 0-2
A Coventry City D 1-1
H Bristol City W 3-2

Palace - 21st
SAYING "21ST" IS NAUGHTY AND YOU KNOW IT. THEY HAD TEN POINTS DEDUCTED AND WERE DOING QUITE WELL
IN THE FIRST GAME WHERE THEY BEAT US. THEY WERE EQUAL POINTS WITH SIXTH WHEN WE BEAT THEM 3-1

6 Leicester City 28 7 5 3 18 12 4 5 4 13 16 +3 43
X Crystal Palace 29 6 4 4 17 15 5 6 4 16 16 +2 43 (WITHOUT THE DEDUCTION)
7 Sheffield Utd 30 7 6 2 24 15 4 3 8 18 27 0 42

SINCE THEN, THEY'VE FADED, IN PARTICULAR BECAUSE THEY ARE WITHOUT MOSES



Blackpool - 9th - challenger

BLACKPOOL WERE 5TH WHEN WE BEAT THEM, AND LOOKING REALLY GOOD.
ONE OF THE REASONS THEY ARE NOW "ONLY" 9TH IS BECAUSE WE TOOK THOSE THREE POINTS
HAD THEY BEATEN US THAT DAY THEY'D BE SEVENTH.

WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT IF WE TAKE POINTS OF CLUBS WE MAKE THEM LOOK WORSE!

THEY WERE IN 8TH PLACE WHEN THEY BEAT US 2-0

Wednesday - 20th

WEDNESDAY ARE STILL IN TROUBLE BUT THEY WERE ON A VERY GOOD RUN WHEN WE PLAYED THEM

A Barnsley FLC W 2-1
A Blackpool FLC W 2-1
H Peterboro FLC W 2-1

A Scunthorpe FLC L 0-2
H Plymouth FLC W 2-1
A Nottm Forest FLC L 1-2
H Blackpool FLC W 2-0
H Doncaster FLC L 0-2
H Ipswich Town FLC L 0-1
A Reading FLC L 0-5
H Leicester City FLC W 2-0
A WBA FLC L 0-1
A Swansea City FLC D 0-0
A Preston FLC D 2-2

TAKE OUT OUR WIN AND THE NEW MANAGER HAS HAD 13 GAMES, WINNING SIX, INCLUDING BEATING LEICESTER, DRAWING TWO
LOSING NARROWLY TO WBA, IPSWICH, NOTTM FOREST, AND 0-2 TO DONCASTER. THEY DREW AT SWANSEA AND PRESTON

20 POINTS FROM THOSE THIRTEEN GAMES SURROUNDING A HUGE DEFEAT BY US. BETTER THAN 1.5 POINTS A GAME, A 70 POINT SEASON

IF YOU GO TO "STATTO" AND PLUG IN WHEN IRVINE STARTED, SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY ARE 11TH, SOLID MID-TABLE UNDER HIS MANAGERSHIP

[From Despair To Where?]

These statistics seem to be massive overkill. Statistics for statistic's sake. As others have said, any statistical analysis will be slewed by the run in the last 9 games where the fixture list has been very kind to us.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a McDermott fan and think it is remarkable what he has achieved in turning a toothless attack, a midfield lacking creativity and a porous defence into a highly effective team playing with confidence and belief.

I place more emphasis on the manner in which the team is playing. We could quite realistically lose 6 of our next 7 matches but that doesn't make him a shit manager. The most important thing for me is that a McDermott team will go down fighting and playing for the 90 minutes and play with pride.

That McDermott has overseen a dramatic improvement is rather self evident. Statistics merely illustrate the story, they don't tell the story in themselves.

You could illustrate the point statistically rather more succinctly by merely posting the respective league tables for 19th January and 19th March

[The Surgeon of Crowthorne]

As I said on another thread, averages without considering error (i.e. variance) are meaningless. When taking statistical samples, a normal distribution has 50% lying between mean +- standard deviation and 95% lying between mean +- 2*standard deviation.
So, we have a points average of 1.86 points per game since BM took over, but the standard deviation is 1.4.
This means the 50% probability spread of points is from 0.4 points per game to 3.26, the upper limit of which is clearly nonsense, and the 95% probability is from -0.96 to 4.67, which is even more daft.
In other words, applying the ppg game over a season, there's a 50% chance that we'll have between 20.7 and 138 points and a 95% chance that we'll have between 0 and 138 points.
Or, looking at the remaining games, there's a 50% probability we'll have between 51.96 and 80 points, and a 95% probability we'll have between 47 and 80 points.
Just sayin'

[Snowball]

or we will finish on 66-71 points

[rhroyal]

I actually liked Snowball's post on form, useful insight. No need for capitals though.....

[Rex]

I actually liked Snowball's post on form, useful insight. No need for capitals though.....

Agreed on both scores.

[Snowball]

NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY PEOPLE HATE CAPS.

I LIKE CAPS.


In the case of the long "form" post the caps were to separate words of posters, form etc

The result that REALLY shows the difference is that versus Wednesday

WIN A Barnsley FLC W 2-1
WIN A Blackpool FLC W 2-1
WIN H Peterboro FLC W 2-1
LOSE A Scunthorpe FLC L 0-2
WIN H Plymouth FLC W 2-1
LOSE A Nottm Forest FLC L 1-2
WIN H Blackpool FLC W 2-0
LOSE H Doncaster FLC L 0-2
LOSE H Ipswich Town FLC L 0-1

HAMMERED A Reading FLC L 0-5

WIN H Leicester City FLC W 2-0
LOSE A WBA FLC L 0-1
DRAW A Swansea City FLC D 0-0
DRAW A Preston FLC D 2-2

EXCLUDING OUR RESULT THEY WERE 15-12 IN 13 GAMES

Immediately after us they beat a top-six side,
then they only lost to a late goal at WBA,
they drew at Swansea and Preston

Their defeats since Irvine took over have been narrow ones. BUT WE BEAT THEM 5-0

[Platypuss]

NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY PEOPLE HATE CAPS.

That says more about you than it does them.

[PEARCEY]

NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY PEOPLE HATE CAPS.

That says more about you than it does them.

Have you been participating in extra pedant classes or something Platypuss? Either that or it must be your time of the month.

[Ian Royal]

NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY PEOPLE HATE CAPS.

I LIKE CAPS.

Because it's shouting and as such it's rude.

It's no surprise you seem to struggle with polite social conventions.

[Pseud O'Nym]

Those Thinsulate(TM) ones do keep your head warm, thoughbut.

[Snowball]

NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY PEOPLE HATE CAPS.

I LIKE CAPS.

Because it's shouting and as such it's rude.

It's no surprise you seem to struggle with polite social conventions.

No it is not shouting, it's a series of capital letters.

Just because some nerd about thirty years ago said,
"I know, when we want to shout on line we'll use caps!"

You and a few zillion more decided to follow muttering, baaaa-baaa-baaaa

It's a totally dumb "convention" and I ignore it.

CAPS OTOH are sometimes useful to separate speech threads.

[Franchise FC]

NEVER UNDERSTOOD WHY PEOPLE HATE CAPS.

I LIKE CAPS.

Because it's shouting and as such it's rude.

It's no surprise you seem to struggle with polite social conventions.

No it is not shouting, it's a series of capital letters.

Just because some nerd about thirty years ago said,
"I know, when we want to shout on line we'll use caps!"

You and a few zillion more decided to follow muttering, baaaa-baaa-baaaa

It's a totally dumb "convention" and I ignore it.

CAPS OTOH are sometimes useful to separate speech threads.

But they remain more difficult to read.

[Snowball]

But they remain more difficult to read.

Fairy Nuff. I don't find them difficult to read.

[Franchise FC]

But they remain more difficult to read.

Fairy Nuff. I don't find them difficult to read.

Apparently, (not my research might I add) the brain interprets the top sections of lowercase letters more easily than all uppercase. The study showed that it's possible to cover the bottom half of the words and still be able to read them if they are lowercase, but much less successfully with uppercase.

What I want to know is why anyone would cover half the line on the screen they are reading just to prove this.

[Ian Royal]

And it's totally unnecessary as a tool to add emphasis when you can bold, italicise, underline or enlarge really easily.

And the reason the convention is that it is shouting, is because it looks like shouting. But as I said, no surprises that is difficult for snowball to grasp.

[Arch]

Snowball is Sir Dodger Royal.

FACTTTTTTTT!