by REMTARDROYAL »
19 Dec 2012 11:15
creative_username_1 REMTARDROYAL I'd suggest every decision that involves some aspect of the future is as much luck as judgement
Luck is the little wobbles, judgement is the longer term trend.
Over an extended period of time, good judgement, a good method, perfect planning and preparation will overcome luck every single time.
That's not to say there won't be setbacks.
I'm not sure i agree. All the things you mention are based on things that have happened in the past and applying them to the future and hoping they still work. How do you define:
good judgement - person that survived the longest (could have got lucky)
good method - well it worked last time, if only #{"variable"} hadn't happened it would have worked this time.
perfect planning - in a hugely dynamical system with things constantly changing
Do you have a military background? I think i'm right in saying that you're also fairly handy at maths (did you used to be Papereyes)
Maths and numbers is what I do, day in, day out. The 7Ps is as valid in academia, though.
I think what I'm trying to say is that in, say, a football match, you can't control everything. It's a stochastic process, for want of a better word. But its the judgement, method, whatever, that either limits the impact of bad luck and magnifies the effect of good luck. While you can't immediately control the movement of 22 players and a ball, money means you can buy better players and tactics means that you can either control your 11 players better or limit what the other 11 can do.
And the same applies over a season. We can't necessarily buy better players but we can use less good players in a way that the things they're less good at are less obvious and maximizing what they are good at. Last season - set pieces, attacking with a minimum of possession, not relying on central midfield as a source of creativity. This at least relates to the whole Moneyball ethos (the 'Reading way' in a different sport) - creative players cost more, so we've found other sources of goals.
(I did like TBMs comment on another thread - its like finding a corner glitch and then SI patch it. Last season, we had a style that stopped other teams scoring and lead to us having a higher percentage of goal scoring chances from corners. We can't score every time but if we tip the odds 10 per cent in our favor, we'd expect more goals per game and many more goals per season, from corners.This season, we've been patched.)
