Shane Long

[Snowball]

The other extreme case was Preston but here are their 5 minute breakdowns
and they show that in 5 minute terms, the end of the game is not noticeably the loosest

6 41-45
6 86-90

YES the last FIVE MINUTES is relatively high-scoring, but no more so than the last 5 minutes of the first-half
(a total contrast with Reading's games where hardly any goals get scored approaching half-time)

5 21-25
5 26-30
4 51-55
4 56-60
4 66-70
4 81-85

But then note (above) that the periods 21-25 minutes and 26-30 minutes are MORE goal-full than 81-85. Once again the last ten doesn't look quite so easy to score

3 61-65
2 00-05
2 36-40
2 71-75
2 76-80

and notice how the first 5 minutes of the last 15 minutes is really low down on the scoring list

1 06-10
1 31-35
1 46-50
0 11-15
0 16-20


If you now combine these into ten minute slots Lo and behold the last ten is quite good for goals, BUT NO BETTER THAN 21-30 and only fractionally better than 51-60. Now why would 21-30 be good, eh?

10 21-30
10 81-90
08 51-60
07 41-50
07 61-70
04 71-80
03 00-10
03 31-40
00 11-20

What about fifteen minute slots? Remember cmonurz didn't like me using 15-minute slots because they showed Reading DIDN'T score more goals at the end of the game

But in Preston's case they DO! (marginally)

12 76-90
10 16-30
09 31-45
09 46-60
09 61-75
03 00-15

[Snowball]

When goals are scored, seems to me is so different for different teams that it's a meaningless statistic

Doncaster, though, must play strangely or lack fitness

They have only scored ONE goal in the last ten minutes all season

They have let in TEN

[Hoop Blah]

Take out the extreme two or three at either end of the spectrum then and compare the totals that way.

Individual teams will always differ to an extent depending on their form, their style of play, and the players they have at their disposal.

I think it's still fair to say that more goals are scored late on in games than any other period of play.

[Snowball]

This is the top-six in the league

Wolves-Birmingham-Reading-Cardiff-Sheffield United-Preston

Wolves' 86-90 is there in 10th place (joint 7th)
Wolves' 81-85 is there in 13th place (joint 11th)
Wolves' 76-80 is there in 16th place (joint 14th)

Basically they do POORLY in the last 5, 10 15 minutes

Wolves, Birmingham, Sheffield and Preston have segments with more goals than the last 5 minutes

If it truly was the case that more goals were scored in the last quarter of an hour, then all the coloured numbers should be near the top, ALL in the top third

In fact the three 5 minute segments are equally distributed, 6 in thte high-scoring third, six in the middle, six in the bottom.


I must say I am not sure of these stats. According to them we have never scored after 90 minutes. Try telling that to Federici

7 00-05 7 11-15 8 86-90 7 86-90 6 56-60 6 41-45
7 16-20 6 86-90 6 11-15 6 41-45 5 41-45 6 86-90
7 56-60 5 41-45 6 16-20 5 81-85 5 86-90 5 21-25
7 71-75 4 36-40 6 61-65 4 06-10 4 51-55 5 26-30
6 41-45 4 46-50 5 00-05 4 31-35 4 61-65 4 51-55
6 66-70 4 71-75 5 26-30 4 46-50 4 66-70 4 56-60

4 36-40 3 06-10 5 66-70 4 61-65 4 71-75 4 66-70
4 51-55 3 61-65 5 81-85 3 16-20 4 81-85 4 81-85
4 61-65 3 76-80 4 46-50 3 26-30 3 00-05 3 61-65
4 86-90 2 56-60 4 56-60 3 51-55 3 26-30 2 00-05
3 21-25 1 00-05 3 36-40 3 56-60 3 31-35 2 36-40
3 26-30 1 16-20 3 41-45 2 00-05 3 46-50 2 71-75

3 81-85 1 21-25 3 51-55 2 11-15 3 76-80 2 76-80
2 06-10 1 26-30 3 76-80 2 66-70 2 06-10 1 06-10
2 11-15 1 51-55 2 71-75 2 71-75 2 11-15 1 31-35
2 76-80 1 81-85 1 06-10 1 76-80 2 16-20 1 46-50
1 31-35 0 31-35 1 21-25 0 21-25 2 21-25 0 11-15
0 46-50 0 66-70 1 31-35 0 36-40 2 36-40 0 16-20


I'm sure this would be different for other clubs

[Hoop Blah]

This is the top-six in the league

Wolves-Birmingham-Reading-Cardiff-Sheffield United-Preston

Wolves' 86-90 is there in 10th place (joint 7th)
Wolves' 81-85 is there in 13th place (joint 11th)
Wolves' 76-80 is there in 16th place (joint 14th)

Basically they do POORLY in the last 5, 10 15 minutes

It maybe that, like Reading, they've pretty much already won games by the last 10-15 minutes (hence them being at the top) and so they're containing and closing out the game instead of looking for a late goal to nick it.

Thats just a gut feel suggestion and I have no stats to support that theory!

[Snowball]

This is the top-six in the league

Wolves-Birmingham-Reading-Cardiff-Sheffield United-Preston

Wolves' 86-90 is there in 10th place (joint 7th)
Wolves' 81-85 is there in 13th place (joint 11th)
Wolves' 76-80 is there in 16th place (joint 14th)

Basically they do POORLY in the last 5, 10 15 minutes

It maybe that, like Reading, they've pretty much already won games by the last 10-15 minutes (hence them being at the top) and so they're containing and closing out the game instead of looking for a late goal to nick it.

Thats just a gut feel suggestion and I have no stats to support that theory!

You may well be right, Hoops. What I'm amazed at when you look at thes distributions is that fans of different clubs
get massively different types of games

Look at the top three W-B-R compared to Preston for the first 20 minutes. Basically you don't need to watch the first 20 when Preston play
3 goals in 36 games x 20 minutes = 8 games' worth of football. Interesting too that the top 3 are almost identical over the first 15 minutes

11 Goals Wolves
12 Goals Birmingham (that amazed me as I think they win every game 1-0 in the 97th minute)
11 Goals Reading

7 1 5 2
2 3 1 1
2 7 6 0
7 1 6 0
3 1 1 5
3 1 5 5
1 0 1 1
4 4 3 2
6 5 3 6

0 4 4 1
4 1 3 4
7 2 4 4
4 3 6 3
6 0 5 4
7 4 2 2
2 3 3 2
3 1 5 4
4 6 8 6

[Snowball]

It maybe that, like Reading, they've pretty much already won games by the last 10-15 minutes (hence them being at the top) and so they're containing and closing out the game instead of looking for a late goal to nick it.

Thats just a gut feel suggestion and I have no stats to support that theory!

Good point. It ought to be then that sides who draw a lot or have a close Goal-Difference would maybe be involved in more late goals.

[Snowball]

It maybe that, like Reading, they've pretty much already won games by the last 10-15 minutes (hence them being at the top) and so they're containing and closing out the game instead of looking for a late goal to nick it.

Thats just a gut feel suggestion and I have no stats to support that theory!

You are right.

Take the top half of that early-late goals table and the average draws is 8.36

Take the bottom half (the ones with more late goals) and the average draws are 11.8


Draws -- How many more last 15 minute goals

18 200% Swansea
14 163% Cardiff
13 225% QPR
12 150% Blackpool
12 350% Bristol
11 157% Coventry
11 180% Forest
11 171% Sheff Utd
10 275% Saints
10 0% Plymouth
10 162% Burnley
10 -10% Birmingham

Only Plymouth and Birmingham spoil the correlation

Birmingham probably because they play so tight and win a lot of 1-0s or lose 1-0 or draw 1-1

[Snowball]

Hoops you are so right.

If you look at all the league goals scored for and against Reading this season (in the last ten minutes)

10 Were directly point-winners

05 "Made sure" (eg Swansea's 89th second, Preston's 84th second, our 3rd at Birmingham/Wolves, 4th v Palace)

01 was a consolation goal (Bristol's 1 against our 4)

02 were meaningless bonuses/icing on the cake


An awful lot of our games were "over" 25 minutes from the end

[Hoop Blah]

Hoops you are so right.

This doesn't surprise me!

[Snowball]

(cough)


and should we expect an increase in late goals towards the end of the season (all clubs)?

[Hoop Blah]

I guess you might do, as games might get tighter as the season gets to the business end of things.

Difficult to know though, lots of teams will potentially be bringing on youngsters or giving run outs to 'lesser' players, that might make it easier to score if they're defenders, or less likely if forwards.

I wouldn't say it's something you can predict though, as it would depend on too many variables in terms of fixtures, teams form and what they have left to play for....

If you're looking for something to investigate though, why not compare the end of season run in pre and post play offs to see if the decrease in meaningless games had any effect.

[Ian Royal]

Kitson's arrival may have just stuffed Long's attempt to step up into the lime light. It would seem strange for Kitson not to start featuring in the 16 in a couple of games and it's unlikely NHunt will be dropped out of the squad.

Long needs to fill his boots against Charlton and Ipswich if he wants a chance of many more minutes across the rest of the season. IMO.

[SteveRoyal]

Kitson's arrival may have just stuffed Long's attempt to step up into the lime light. It would seem strange for Kitson not to start featuring in the 16 in a couple of games and it's unlikely NHunt will be dropped out of the squad.

Long needs to fill his boots against Charlton and Ipswich if he wants a chance of many more minutes across the rest of the season. IMO.

'Greed. If he keeps up the same level of performance he had at Plymouth then he should not be dropped.

[Ian Royal]

Think it's going to need goals or assists, just keeping up the performance probably still won't be enough. Especially if we aren't winning.

I think we're seeing Coppell trying to be decisive and proactive in reaction to a fading season, along a similar vein to the one last year. Trying to not make the same mistakes. It might end up with different ones. But this is positive action IMO

[SteveRoyal]

Think it's going to need goals or assists, just keeping up the performance probably still won't be enough. Especially if we aren't winning.

Good point, but if he keeps up the same level then he'll reap the rewards.

[Ian Royal]

Right now I couldn't give a monkey's who's scoring as long as someone is doing it for us. 2-3 a game would do me nicely.

[Arnie_Pie]

2 for Long tonight. Snowball, I am sure you may feel a little smug at the moment

[Readingfanman]

I feel Long was probably our best player tonight. Never thought I would say that.

[Snowball]

Kitson's arrival may have just stuffed Long's attempt to step up into the lime light. It would seem strange for Kitson not to start featuring in the 16 in a couple of games and it's unlikely NHunt will be dropped out of the squad. Long needs to fill his boots against Charlton and Ipswich if he wants a chance of many more minutes across the rest of the season. IMO.

Two goals tonight, one GREAT run, a volley that was almost a goal.

Now 900 minutes and 6 goals, better than 1 in 3. TOP MAN!