Run Ins - Relative Strengths

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Stranded
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Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Stranded » 11 Mar 2019 09:23

I've posted these figures on a few other threads but plan to update these after every round of games so we can see how they fluctuate game by game.

I've looked at the run in for each of the 6 sides in relegation trouble (will drop teams off if/when they cannot catch us) and taken a look at their remaining fixtures. The lists below show 3 things:

1. Current form table position of each club (6 games)
2. Current average League position of remaining opponents
3. Current form table position of remaining opponents (6 games)

Warning: We have it tough.

Key highlights:

[*]We have the toughest run in both in terms of opposition position and form.
[*]Rotherham have the biggest gap between where opponents are in the league (9.3) and form (12.3). Their opponents are relatively out of form currently.
[*]Bolton have considerable the easiest run in both in terms of current league position and form. They play 6 bottom half teams and the 5 of the 6 teams below them in the form table.





Form Table

1. Reading 7th (11pts)
2. Rotherham 13th (7pts)
3. Bolton 18th (6 pts)
4. Wigan 20th (4 pts)
5. Ipswich 21st (4 pts)
6. Millwall 22nd (4 pts)

Avg. position of opponents

1. Reading 8.1 (Change from last game +0.8 - i.e. tougher)
2. Rotherham 9.3 (-0.7)
3. Millwall 10.2 (+1.1)
4. Ipswich 10.4 (+0.9)
5. Wigan 11.7 (+1)
6. Bolton 13.4 (+1)

Avg. form table position of opponents

1. Reading 9.2 (change from last game -0.8 - i.e. easier)
2. Ipswich 10.3 (-0.6)
3. Millwall 11.1 (+1.3)
4. Wigan 12.2 (-1.2)
5. Rotherham 12.3 (0.0)
6. Bolton 14.5 (+0.4)

Overall Strength (Sum of League position/form) - Higher the number more difficult the run-in

1. Ipswich 12.97
2. Wigan 12.35
3. Reading 11.61
4. Bolton 11.13
5. Millwall 10.48
6. Rotherham 8.24

Will update this after the midweek fixtures.
Last edited by Stranded on 11 Mar 2019 11:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by From Despair To Where? » 11 Mar 2019 09:44

I'm becoming an armchair QPR fan for the next month. They play Rotherham, Bolton and Milwall.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by NewCorkSeth » 11 Mar 2019 10:00

From Despair To Where? I'm becoming an armchair QPR fan for the next month. They play Rotherham, Bolton and Milwall.

Bet that feels dirty. Are they not close to bottom in the form table too? If they're not careful they could be pulled in to our league of 6.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by From Despair To Where? » 11 Mar 2019 10:13

23rd on form but their last 6 fixtures have been Bristol City (A), West Brom (H), Middlesbrough (A), Leeds (H), Stoke (H) and Brentford (A). That's 4 of the current top 7 and an away local derby. Not the easiest run of fixtures.

They are by no means safe given the upcoming run of fixtures but They got their 4 points in those 6 games at home to Leeds and Stoke and 2 of the 3 games against teams at the bottom are at home.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by NewCorkSeth » 11 Mar 2019 10:23

From Despair To Where? 23rd on form but their last 6 fixtures have been Bristol City (A), West Brom (H), Middlesbrough (A), Leeds (H), Stoke (H) and Brentford (A). That's 4 of the current top 7 and an away local derby. Not the easiest run of fixtures.

They are by no means safe given the upcoming run of fixtures but They got their 4 points in those 6 games at home to Leeds and Stoke and 2 of the 3 games against teams at the bottom are at home.

Well I would be delighted if they rolled over Rotherham, Bolton and Millwall. Hopefully some confidence shattering victories.


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Hound » 11 Mar 2019 10:24

I suppose the one thing missing from the run ins is a comparison on our own form though.

Without actually checking, I'm guessing our form is close to as good as every team we are going to play, bar the likes of Norwich. Wigan and Rotherham's form isn't great, and Millwall's is pretty dreadful

It will be tough, but at the same time, on the back of 1 defeat in 8, and 7pts from the last 3, we should be confident

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by NewCorkSeth » 11 Mar 2019 10:26

Hound I suppose the one thing missing from the run ins is a comparison on our own form though.

Without actually checking, I'm guessing our form is close to as good as every team we are going to play, bar the likes of Norwich. Wigan and Rotherham's form isn't great, and Millwall's is pretty dreadful

It will be tough, but at the same time, on the back of 1 defeat in 8, and 7pts from the last 3, we should be confident

I think Leeds are the only team above us in the form table that we have still to play. But that will change if (when) they beat us.

Edit: And Norwich. Obviously.

Edit no. 2: Apparently Brentford and Preston are also ahead of us in the form table so I was way off..
Last edited by NewCorkSeth on 11 Mar 2019 10:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Royal Bee » 11 Mar 2019 10:31

From Despair To Where? I'm becoming an armchair QPR fan for the next month. They play Rotherham, Bolton and Milwall.
I just can't! I just hope they lose all of those games and we pick up points at the same time :D

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Stranded » 11 Mar 2019 10:40

Hound I suppose the one thing missing from the run ins is a comparison on our own form though.

Without actually checking, I'm guessing our form is close to as good as every team we are going to play, bar the likes of Norwich. Wigan and Rotherham's form isn't great, and Millwall's is pretty dreadful

It will be tough, but at the same time, on the back of 1 defeat in 8, and 7pts from the last 3, we should be confident


As requested, our opponents actual positions are:

Leeds (H) 4
Stoke (a) 12
Preston (H) 3
Hull (a) 16
Norwich (a) 1
Brentford (H) 5
Bristol (a) 14
WBA (H) 11
Boro (a) 10
Brum (H) 15

So as of today, we are in better form than 6 of our 10 remaining opponents over 6 games.

Also in better form over 8 games than 5 opponents, and over 10 games than 4 opponents.


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Nameless » 11 Mar 2019 10:59

And of course by the time we play each of the teams their form and our form may have changed significantly as might their league position.
This 'run in strength' is a very crude measure, sort of interesting but not much more than that.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Stranded » 11 Mar 2019 11:05

Nameless And of course by the time we play each of the teams their form and our form may have changed significantly as might their league position.
This 'run in strength' is a very crude measure, sort of interesting but not much more than that.


Not saying it is anything more than interesting* but gives an indication of what is ahead.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Nameless » 11 Mar 2019 11:16

Stranded
Nameless And of course by the time we play each of the teams their form and our form may have changed significantly as might their league position.
This 'run in strength' is a very crude measure, sort of interesting but not much more than that.


Not saying it is anything more than interesting* but gives an indication of what is ahead.


Of course, and it's logical to look at the table and think 'we've got lots of really tough teams to play'.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by windermereROYAL » 11 Mar 2019 11:22

LDLWLDDDWLDWW.
Since Jose took over, 16 points from 13 games, accepted we have some hard games coming up. but I feel we have nothing to fear from anyone, especially given our improved home form.


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by CountryRoyal » 11 Mar 2019 12:00

Stranded
Nameless And of course by the time we play each of the teams their form and our form may have changed significantly as might their league position.
This 'run in strength' is a very crude measure, sort of interesting but not much more than that.


Not saying it is anything more than interesting* but gives an indication of what is ahead.


Might as well just use the fixture list as an indication, as Nameless said very crude. One win for any team will drastically change the results and form. I still maintain Rotherham’s run in is by far the hardest, form (at this moment) or not.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Mid Sussex Royal » 11 Mar 2019 12:56

If we get Nelson back after the break plus hopefully Rino soon we will be fine. With those two I'd actually back us against Leeds tomorrow.

I still feel we are just fighting to stay out of 22nd, only really need 3 or 4 points to see off Bolton as its very unlikely they would then be able to catch us given their goal diff.

The good thing now is we're competing with several sides to stay outside one place so even though the run in is hard we should be ok.

And, I've posted this somewhere else, games against fellow strugglers will be even tougher and more nervy from now on and I'm pleased we've played all those games done early.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by stealthpapes » 11 Mar 2019 13:05

Leeds (H)
Stoke (a)
Preston (H)
Hull (a)
Norwich (a)
Brentford (H)
Bristol (a)
WBA (H)
Boro (a)
Brum (H)


I look at this and I kinda hope teams are already out of the playoff chase by the time we get there.

So, 3 categories
"have a nice day, here is 3 points" (in bold)
outside chance (underline) - think we'll win 1, draw 1, lose 1 from that lot.
"the easyjet flight to malaga" (italics) - will win only if team has nothing to play for.

So, that's minimum 4 (to 40 and likely safety) and maximum 10 (steve mcqueen territory)

Last game might be squeeky bum.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Mid Sussex Royal » 11 Mar 2019 14:15

stealthpapes
Leeds (H)
Stoke (a)
Preston (H)
Hull (a)
Norwich (a)
Brentford (H)
Bristol (a)
WBA (H)
Boro (a)
Brum (H)


I look at this and I kinda hope teams are already out of the playoff chase by the time we get there.

So, 3 categories
"have a nice day, here is 3 points" (in bold)
outside chance (underline) - think we'll win 1, draw 1, lose 1 from that lot.
"the easyjet flight to malaga" (italics) - will win only if team has nothing to play for.

So, that's minimum 4 (to 40 and likely safety) and maximum 10 (steve mcqueen territory)

Last game might be squeeky bum.


Think we will need a few more than 40 points, Rotherham are picking up around a point a game atm, reckon 2 wins and a draw will see us ok.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Pepe the Horseman » 11 Mar 2019 14:21

stealthpapes
Leeds (H)
Stoke (a)
Preston (H)
Hull (a)
Norwich (a)
Brentford (H)
Bristol (a)
WBA (H)
Boro (a)
Brum (H)


I look at this and I kinda hope teams are already out of the playoff chase by the time we get there.

So, 3 categories
"have a nice day, here is 3 points" (in bold)
outside chance (underline) - think we'll win 1, draw 1, lose 1 from that lot.
"the easyjet flight to malaga" (italics) - will win only if team has nothing to play for.

So, that's minimum 4 (to 40 and likely safety) and maximum 10 (steve mcqueen territory)

Last game might be squeeky bum.

Squeeky brum


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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Denver Royal » 11 Mar 2019 15:29

stealthpapes
Leeds (H)
Stoke (a)
Preston (H)
Hull (a)
Norwich (a)
Brentford (H)
Bristol (a)
WBA (H)
Boro (a)
Brum (H)


I look at this and I kinda hope teams are already out of the playoff chase by the time we get there.

So, 3 categories
"have a nice day, here is 3 points" (in bold)
outside chance (underline) - think we'll win 1, draw 1, lose 1 from that lot.
"the easyjet flight to malaga" (italics) - will win only if team has nothing to play for.

So, that's minimum 4 (to 40 and likely safety) and maximum 10 (steve mcqueen territory)

Last game might be squeeky bum.

Still think it's going to be very close/tight. Norwich onward, that stretch looks very tough for us.
Kinda wish Stoke/Preston/Hull came later in the stretch when (hopefully) everyone would be back fit again.

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Re: Run Ins - Relative Strengths

by Snowflake Royal » 11 Mar 2019 21:34

Denver Royal Kinda wish Stoke/Preston/Hull came later in the stretch when (hopefully) everyone would be back fit again.

Oh you poor sweet naive optimist.

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