by Winston Biscuit » 11 Apr 2023 12:58
by Winston Biscuit » 11 Apr 2023 13:00
by tmesis » 11 Apr 2023 13:43
Snowflake Royal To those who think we'll struggle to make 10k average in L1, how many clubs can you provide from the last ten years who lost ~20-25% of their support on relegation from the Championship to back that up?
by Maguire » 11 Apr 2023 13:51
by PATRIQT » 11 Apr 2023 13:55
Maguire I honestly don't think there's anything to look forward to in League One. Maybe a few good away days to places we haven't been to in years.
Relegation is a disaster and the idea that we'll be "play-offs at worst" is based on nothing other than wishful thinking.
What a state this football club has got itself into.
by Royal_jimmy » 11 Apr 2023 13:59
Snowflake RoyaltmesisSnowflake Royal We'll comfortably average 12k in L1 mid-table next season.
Why? We were only about managing that when we were mid-table this season, because fans have pretty much given up on the club. We also only averaged a bit over than when we finished 3rd in 2001. There's nothing about relegation that will have fans thinking we now have a bright new future.
And even 8000 a game is probably around £5 million a year in budget terms. A club like Ipswich has more than double the budget of the average League One club. Even with 12k a week, with our recruitment record, we will probably blow any advantage we might have, and we'll be starting from a very poor starting point - having to rebuild a completely threadbare squad.
Fans are sick of losing. Teams often gain a bit of support on relegation with the prospect of a new challenge and excitement. We've got 12k under those circumstances before.
We're not going to lose 4k fans over night.
by Hound » 11 Apr 2023 14:02
tmesisSnowflake Royal To those who think we'll struggle to make 10k average in L1, how many clubs can you provide from the last ten years who lost ~20-25% of their support on relegation from the Championship to back that up?
Since 2005 (excl covid seasons), 21 clubs out of 51 relegated clubs lost at least 20% of their crowds. 35 lost at least 10%.
2005 Bradford City -22,3%, Walsall -22,6%
2006 Nottingham Forest -14,0%, Gillingham -21,8%, Rotherham United -15,4%
2007 Brighton & Hove Albion -11,1%, Crewe Alexandra -18,9%
2008 Southend United -18,5%, Luton Town -24,3%
2009 Leicester City -13,8%, Scunthorpe United -22,0%
2010 Charlton Athletic -16,7%
2011 Sheffield Wednesday -23,1%, Plymouth Argyle -16,5%, Peterborough United -27,6%
2012 Scunthorpe United FC 4.339 -21,8%
2013 Portsmouth -18,5%, Coventry City -27,6%, Doncaster Rovers -22,5%
2014 Bristol City -10,6%, Peterborough United -22,8%
2015 Barnsley -15,5%, Doncaster Rovers -23,9%, Yeovil Town -34,3%
2016 Wigan Athletic -26,5%, Millwall -16,5%, Blackpool -35,8%
2017 Charlton Athletic -28,6%, Milton Keynes Dons -21,7%
2018 Wigan Athletic -21,9%, Rotherham United -13,0%
2019 Burton Albion -27,9%
2020 Bolton Wanderers -21,4%
2021 ---
2022 ---
2023 Peterborough United -18,3%, Barnsley -22,3%
Given how the Reading public traditionally stop coming in poorer times, The idea that they are going to be excited by us being a mediocre League One team does require some impressive RTGs.
by Royal_jimmy » 11 Apr 2023 14:02
by Royal_jimmy » 11 Apr 2023 14:04
Winston Biscuit and if Shef Wed continue to blow their automatic promotion chances then we might get to hear them do their 'awensdaway' chant in the away end next season!
We also get the bonus of being one of the bigger clubs in that league while also not being anyones 'cup final'. could work in our favour
by Hound » 11 Apr 2023 14:06
PATRIQTMaguire I honestly don't think there's anything to look forward to in League One. Maybe a few good away days to places we haven't been to in years.
Relegation is a disaster and the idea that we'll be "play-offs at worst" is based on nothing other than wishful thinking.
What a state this football club has got itself into.
Exactly this.
by Winston Biscuit » 11 Apr 2023 14:07
Royal_jimmyWinston Biscuit and if Shef Wed continue to blow their automatic promotion chances then we might get to hear them do their 'awensdaway' chant in the away end next season!
We also get the bonus of being one of the bigger clubs in that league while also not being anyones 'cup final'. could work in our favour
I think we'd be most teams cup final, we've not played in league one for decades and we've not played some of the teams in that league before. They'll raise their game v us.
by Royal_jimmy » 11 Apr 2023 14:08
Maguire I honestly don't think there's anything to look forward to in League One. Maybe a few good away days to places we haven't been to in years.
Relegation is a disaster and the idea that we'll be "play-offs at worst" is based on nothing other than wishful thinking.
What a state this football club has got itself into.
by Royal_jimmy » 11 Apr 2023 14:12
Winston BiscuitRoyal_jimmyWinston Biscuit and if Shef Wed continue to blow their automatic promotion chances then we might get to hear them do their 'awensdaway' chant in the away end next season!
We also get the bonus of being one of the bigger clubs in that league while also not being anyones 'cup final'. could work in our favour
I think we'd be most teams cup final, we've not played in league one for decades and we've not played some of the teams in that league before. They'll raise their game v us.
WTF?!
sizable club for the last couple of decades, big stadium for the div, team not played for a while etc. 'Most teams cup final' though? crikey
by tmesis » 11 Apr 2023 14:18
HoundPATRIQTMaguire I honestly don't think there's anything to look forward to in League One. Maybe a few good away days to places we haven't been to in years.
Relegation is a disaster and the idea that we'll be "play-offs at worst" is based on nothing other than wishful thinking.
What a state this football club has got itself into.
Exactly this.
The club is likely to be relegated after 4-5 years of struggle after idiotically over spending on a load of shite and punished years after by the EFL.
That’s it really. There is no great ‘state’ we’re in. We’re no different to other teams who get relegated (except we do have a nice new training ground and hoepfully cat 1 academy)
by Winston Biscuit » 11 Apr 2023 14:18
Royal_jimmyWinston BiscuitRoyal_jimmy
I think we'd be most teams cup final, we've not played in league one for decades and we've not played some of the teams in that league before. They'll raise their game v us.
WTF?!
sizable club for the last couple of decades, big stadium for the div, team not played for a while etc. 'Most teams cup final' though? crikey
You don't think teams like Fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Oxford, Exeter, Orient, Cheltenham, Bristol Rovers and maybe Accrington (if they survive) won't treat us as a cup final? we'd be a big scalp for them
by Hound » 11 Apr 2023 14:21
tmesisHoundPATRIQT
Exactly this.
The club is likely to be relegated after 4-5 years of struggle after idiotically over spending on a load of shite and punished years after by the EFL.
That’s it really. There is no great ‘state’ we’re in. We’re no different to other teams who get relegated (except we do have a nice new training ground and hoepfully cat 1 academy)
We are over £100 million in debt, and need to rebuild from scratch off the pitch, after being run so badly. We'll need to completely rebuild the squad, while having a terrible record in recruiting lately.
I expect us to turn things around within a few years, but any bright new dawn still seems a long way off.
by Dirk Gently » 11 Apr 2023 14:29
by Forbury Lion » 11 Apr 2023 14:30
+1PATRIQTMaguire I honestly don't think there's anything to look forward to in League One. Maybe a few good away days to places we haven't been to in years.
Relegation is a disaster and the idea that we'll be "play-offs at worst" is based on nothing other than wishful thinking.
What a state this football club has got itself into.
Exactly this.
by Snowflake Royal » 11 Apr 2023 14:41
Royal_jimmySnowflake Royaltmesis Why? We were only about managing that when we were mid-table this season, because fans have pretty much given up on the club. We also only averaged a bit over than when we finished 3rd in 2001. There's nothing about relegation that will have fans thinking we now have a bright new future.
And even 8000 a game is probably around £5 million a year in budget terms. A club like Ipswich has more than double the budget of the average League One club. Even with 12k a week, with our recruitment record, we will probably blow any advantage we might have, and we'll be starting from a very poor starting point - having to rebuild a completely threadbare squad.
Fans are sick of losing. Teams often gain a bit of support on relegation with the prospect of a new challenge and excitement. We've got 12k under those circumstances before.
We're not going to lose 4k fans over night.
we did when we were relegated from the premier league both times
by Snowflake Royal » 11 Apr 2023 14:45
HoundtmesisSnowflake Royal To those who think we'll struggle to make 10k average in L1, how many clubs can you provide from the last ten years who lost ~20-25% of their support on relegation from the Championship to back that up?
Since 2005 (excl covid seasons), 21 clubs out of 51 relegated clubs lost at least 20% of their crowds. 35 lost at least 10%.
2005 Bradford City -22,3%, Walsall -22,6%
2006 Nottingham Forest -14,0%, Gillingham -21,8%, Rotherham United -15,4%
2007 Brighton & Hove Albion -11,1%, Crewe Alexandra -18,9%
2008 Southend United -18,5%, Luton Town -24,3%
2009 Leicester City -13,8%, Scunthorpe United -22,0%
2010 Charlton Athletic -16,7%
2011 Sheffield Wednesday -23,1%, Plymouth Argyle -16,5%, Peterborough United -27,6%
2012 Scunthorpe United FC 4.339 -21,8%
2013 Portsmouth -18,5%, Coventry City -27,6%, Doncaster Rovers -22,5%
2014 Bristol City -10,6%, Peterborough United -22,8%
2015 Barnsley -15,5%, Doncaster Rovers -23,9%, Yeovil Town -34,3%
2016 Wigan Athletic -26,5%, Millwall -16,5%, Blackpool -35,8%
2017 Charlton Athletic -28,6%, Milton Keynes Dons -21,7%
2018 Wigan Athletic -21,9%, Rotherham United -13,0%
2019 Burton Albion -27,9%
2020 Bolton Wanderers -21,4%
2021 ---
2022 ---
2023 Peterborough United -18,3%, Barnsley -22,3%
Given how the Reading public traditionally stop coming in poorer times, The idea that they are going to be excited by us being a mediocre League One team does require some impressive RTGs.
Not sure the stats prove anything though - our crowds will be well down from when we were last good, but without checking the stats, I assume they have already dwindled considerably over the last 4-5 years
Expect most of the more fair weather fans have already gone. Whereas for teams like peterboro, Rotherham, mk etc, they will have been boosted by being back in the champ off the back of a recent promotion in their championship stats
Users browsing this forum: ayjaydee, Byron_Glasgow, LUX, Mid Sussex Royal, Royal_jimmy, Royality creeps In, Singing Defective and 565 guests