Europe and the run in...what do you expect from the team?

[londinium]

Ok, so it's a quiet weekend without any Prem fixtures so I thought I would look at the final 9 game run in and compare ours to that of the other teams looking for a European place.

We have to play only 1 of the top four, but 4 of the other 5 teams that I would consider are battling for a European place.

Bolton have to play 3 of the top four and and only 2 of the 5 contenders.
Everton have to play 3 of the top four and and only 2 of the 5 contenders.
Spurs have to play 2 of the top four and and only 2 of the 5 contenders.
Pompey have to play 3 of the top four and and only 2 of the 5 contenders.
B'burn have to play 1 of the top four and and only 2 of the 5 contenders.

Looking at that little lot it seems that Blackburn have the easiest run in of all the contenders but currently sit 3 points off of 6th spot and have a worse goal difference.

I would hope that we would get 1 away win (Charlton) and 4 home wins (all bar Liverpool) from our games, but will this be enough?

The 4 games against the teams around us we have are all away from home bar Pompey and if need to pick up 3 points from that game and if we pick up any points from any of the others then that would be a great bonus.

I won't be unhappy if we don't make it, but due to the fantastic season we have had so far my expectations have raised drastically, and given our run in I would hope that we give it a great shot. I am sure we will!!!

[M4 Junction 11]

On season form we should finish in seventh on 55 Pts. That's 12 more from remaining 27 Pts.

[Bowman's Quiver]

I have a feeling we may just run out of a bit of steam between now and Easter.

Top ten would still be a wonderful achievement but I think we'll miss out on a European spot.

[londinium]

On season form we should finish in seventh on 55 Pts. That's 12 more from remaining 27 Pts.

Surely seasons form would be 43 divided by 29 to give points per game (1.482).

9 games left = 9 x 1.482 = 13.34

Added to the 43 points we have, totals 56 points!!!

Anyhow... I am loving the 'current form' way of working things out on that site... that would see us finishing FIFTH, only behind the big 4 clubs.

Shall I stop dreaming now??

[Dirk Gently]

On season form we should finish in seventh on 55 Pts. That's 12 more from remaining 27 Pts.

Surely seasons form would be 43 divided by 29 to give points per game (1.482).

9 games left = 9 x 1.482 = 13.34

Added to the 43 points we have, totals 56 points!!!

THat's not a very sophisticated way of doing it, as it fails to take into account the differences between home and away points.

At home we have 28 points from 14 games = 2 ppg, with 5 to play = 10 pts at home.

Away we have 15 pts from 15 games, = 1 ppg, with 4 to play - 4 points away.

10 at home and 4 away gives us a season end total of 57 points.

[londinium]

On season form we should finish in seventh on 55 Pts. That's 12 more from remaining 27 Pts.

Surely seasons form would be 43 divided by 29 to give points per game (1.482).

9 games left = 9 x 1.482 = 13.34

Added to the 43 points we have, totals 56 points!!!

THat's not a very sophisticated way of doing it, as it fails to take into account the differences between home and away points.

At home we have 28 points from 14 games = 2 ppg, with 5 to play = 10 pts at home.

Away we have 15 pts from 15 games, = 1 ppg, with 4 to play - 4 points away.

10 at home and 4 away gives us a season end total of 57 points.

I hope this thread goes on and on.

3 posts ago a formula had us getting 55 points
2 posts ago new formula gave us 56 points
Last post's formula gives us 57 points

I reckon about another 6 more formulas would secure us a European spot!!

[MadStadLad]

42 more and we could win the title!!!!!

[bassavage]

Bolton

Man Utd (A) DEFEAT
Sheff Utd (H) WIN
Wigan (A) DRAW
Everton (H) DRAW
Arsenal (A) DEFEAT
Reading (H) DRAW
Chelsea (A) DEFEAT
West Ham (A) WIN
Aston Villa (H) WIN

12 points from remaining 9 games - end up on 59 points

Everton

Arsenal (H) DEFEAT
Aston Villa (A) DRAW
Fulham (H) WIN
Bolton (A) DRAW
Charlton (H) WIN
West Ham (A) DRAW
Man Utd (H) DEFEAT
Portsmouth (H) WIN
Chelsea (A) DEFEAT

12 points from remaining 9 games - end up on 55 points

Reading

Portsmouth (H) WIN
Spurs (A) DEFEAT
Liverpool (H) DRAW
Charlton (A) DRAW
Fulham (H) WIN
Bolton (A) DRAW
Newcastle (H) DRAW
Watford (H) WIN
Blackburn (A) DEFEAT

13 points from remaining 9 games - end up on 56 points.

Spurs

Watford (H) WIN
Reading (H) WIN
Chelsea (A) DEFEAT
Blackburn (H) WIN
Wigan (A) DRAW
Arsenal (H) DRAW
Middlesbrough (A) DEFEAT
Charlton (A) DRAW
Man City (H) WIN

15 points from remaining 9 games - end up with 57 points.

Portsmouth

Reading (A) DEFEAT
Fulham (A) DRAW
Man Utd (H) DEFEAT
Watford (A) WIN
Newcastle (H) WIN
Aston Villa (A) DRAW
Liverpool (H) DEFEAT
Everton (A) DEFEAT
Arsenal (H) DEFEAT

8 points from remaining 9 games - end up on 49 points

Blackburn

West Ham (H) WIN
Man Utd (A) DEFEAT
Aston Villa (H) WIN
Spurs (A) DEFEAT
Watford (H) WIN
Fulham (A) DRAW
Charlton (H) WIN
Newcastle (A) DEFEAT
Reading (H) WIN

16 points from remaining 9 games - end up on 56 points.

Which means it will end up like this:

1. Bolton 59
2. Spurs 57
3. Reading 56
4. Blackburn 56
5. Everton 55
6. Portsmouth 49

We have a +5 goal difference at the moment and Blackburn have a -4 goal difference and could just be enough to keep us above them.

[nivek elyod]

If we just take each week as it comes and stop speculating, it might just happen...

[Nezhen]

I hate to say it, but from a purely selfish point of view, we could really do with a Man U v Chelski FA cup final now to ensure that the 'extra' UEFA cup place goes to the team fininshing in Seventh in the league.

[Huntley & Palmer]

I would really, really like to think we have a great chance of doing it. However, if we don't beat Pompey on Saturday and at least draw with Spurs then I feel tenth or lower beckons. The players will just struggle to get motivated for it

[Dirk Gently]

We could be playing Blackburn at exactly the right time - if they reach the Cup final then they'll probably think about playing a weakened team against us on May 13th.

And even if they don't the players will have their thoughts elsewhere and will be trying to avoid injuries that day.

[Archie's penalty]

Which means it will end up like this:

1. Bolton 59
2. Spurs 57
3. Reading 56
4. Blackburn 56
5. Everton 55
6. Portsmouth 49

We have a +5 goal difference at the moment and Blackburn have a -4 goal difference and could just be enough to keep us above them.

The thing is this formula is all about Manure playing cheatski in the final - allowing the seventh spot to be enough for europe. I think it's very likely they'll be playing each other in the semi or spurs will beat chelsea in the replay. That means we'll have to get 6th and with the run in compared to others that may just be a bit too far for us. I think we'll get 7th or 8th (still an amazing success) and just miss out! (unfortunately)...

[Archie's penalty]

I would really, really like to think we have a great chance of doing it. However, if we don't beat Pompey on Saturday and at least draw with Spurs then I feel tenth or lower beckons. The players will just struggle to get motivated for it

Think ure right H&P. The portsmouth game is especially crucial - we need a win and a resounding win would be great! I expect to get beat at spurs but we can still make 6th even if we do...

[floyd__streete]

I hate to say it, but from a purely selfish point of view, we could really do with a Man U v Chelski FA cup final now to ensure that the 'extra' UEFA cup place goes to the team fininshing in Seventh in the league.

You've more or less been granted your wish today!

[T.R.O.L.I.]

Monday 19th March is now irony day - all Reading fans become Chelsea fans for the evening.

[aaronrfc]

I hate to say it, but from a purely selfish point of view, we could really do with a Man U v Chelski FA cup final now to ensure that the 'extra' UEFA cup place goes to the team fininshing in Seventh in the league.

or one of Blackburn or Spurs, if they grab sixth (or even 5th)

[Huntley & Palmer]

Monday 19th March is now irony day - all Reading fans become Chelsea fans for the evening.

We all follow the Chelsea, over land and sea and the Leicester
We all follow the Chelsea, onto victory
All together now

[floyd__streete]

Monday 19th March is now irony day - all Reading fans become Chelsea fans for the evening.

We all follow the Chelsea, over land and sea and the Leicester
We all follow the Chelsea, onto victory
All together now

Blue is the colour
Football is the game
Poor old Matthew Harding
Shoulda took the train.

[Huntley & Palmer]

What's that flying into a hill
It's Matthew Harding
It's Matthew Harding