THE BETTING THREAD

[double d]

What is 'proper research' to you, DD?

Well for me it is just looking at all form home and away, players stats, who is playing etc and their specific stats, goals scored and conceded and how etc, when they score ,loads more. Mostly just common sense but something TF needs to do to even win any amount of money. JD whats so

[Top Flight]

Let's talk about account size.

Is an optimum account size maybe a grand? And then you stake no more than 2% of your account on any one specific match.

Basically £20 on one bet. So you never risk more than 2% of your account on one bet. That way, you manage your risk and you bet a decent amount of money so that you can win a decent amount as well.

[Sanguine]

Can you afford £1k?
Can you afford to lose £20 on one bet?

And your optimum account size would depend on the markets in which you generally bet.

And what do you know about speedway?
I'm trying to help here.

[Top Flight]

Can you afford £1k?
Can you afford to lose £20 on one bet?

And your optimum account size would depend on the markets in which you generally bet.

And what do you know about speedway?
I'm trying to help here.

I don't know anything about speedway really. So far I have only bet once on speedway. I backed Kings Lynn to beat Coventry a few weeks ago and they did. That's all I know about it.

At the moment I am playing with £110 in Bet365 and £78 in Betfair. The question is though, what is the optimum account size to play with? Don't worry about affordability.

[Sanguine]

There is no one answer. You can't 'solve' gambling to do it better. If you are betting on a near dead cert, or even better believe a near dead cert is over-priced, then you'll obviously gamble a bigger chunk of your bankroll than if you are backing an away team to score a surprise.

Your bankroll question works only for games like poker where, if you play the game 'correctly' over a significantly period of time then you can expect a certain sample of results. Taking poker as an example, you generally want a bankroll of 100 'buy-ins' (to your chosen stake level) to account for natural variance in the cards you are dealt.

Sports betting has no such structure, in my opinion.

[Brosef Stalin]

Sports betting has no such structure, in my opinion.

This is untrue.

The size of the bet may vary but your risk management comes from appropriate stop losses

If I had a betting bank of £1000 i would be risking 1% to 2% a trade.....doesn't necessarily mean
i'm putting bets of £10 and £20. I could put £100 on and get out if the trade moves against me
so that I hit the £10 stop loss. If it doesn't I leave it on and then re-assess. Far harder to figure
out where to get out than get in IMNSHO

[Top Flight]

What is the best way to bet on a football match?

My recent strategy has been to lay off the team that I don't think will win. That way, I win with a draw or a result in favour of the team I fancy. I did well with LA Galaxy and NY Red Bulls last night with this. Neither won but I still won my bet because both games ended level.

Is it a good idea to lay off a 0-0 draw for example? As soon as there is a goal you've won your bet.

[Sanguine]

Sports betting has no such structure, in my opinion.

This is untrue.

The size of the bet may vary but your risk management comes from appropriate stop losses

If I had a betting bank of £1000 i would be risking 1% to 2% a trade.....doesn't necessarily mean
i'm putting bets of £10 and £20. I could put £100 on and get out if the trade moves against me
so that I hit the £10 stop loss. If it doesn't I leave it on and then re-assess. Far harder to figure
out where to get out than get in IMNSHO

But the movements in in-play markets are generally too wild to operate a hard and fast rule on stop losses. It's very difficult to tie in a minimum loss if a game moves against you.

[Sanguine]

Is it a good idea to lay off a 0-0 draw for example? As soon as there is a goal you've won your bet.

'The 0-0 game' has gone down somewhat in online betting folklore.
You are generally getting odds of 1/7 or 1/8 on there being a goal in a game, so its very difficult to make a big return.

[Top Flight]

Sports betting has no such structure, in my opinion.

This is untrue.

The size of the bet may vary but your risk management comes from appropriate stop losses

If I had a betting bank of £1000 i would be risking 1% to 2% a trade.....doesn't necessarily mean
i'm putting bets of £10 and £20. I could put £100 on and get out if the trade moves against me
so that I hit the £10 stop loss. If it doesn't I leave it on and then re-assess. Far harder to figure
out where to get out than get in IMNSHO

But the movements in in-play markets are generally too wild to operate a hard and fast rule on stop losses. It's very difficult to tie in a minimum loss if a game moves against you.

How do you set up a stop loss on sports betting?

I understand setting up a stop loss if you are spread betting the currency markets on GKFX. But how would you set up a stop loss on Bet365 or Betfair betting on a football match?

[Sanguine]

How do you set up a stop loss on sports betting?

I understand setting up a stop loss if you are spread betting the currency markets on GKFX. But how would you set up a stop loss on Bet365 or Betfair betting on a football match?

That was my point, it's a 'manual' stop loss, and almost unworkable.

In terms of football betting - again in my view there isn't a 'system' to be had. Successful sports betting (and indeed as a rule all betting) is about finding value prices and betting accordingly. If you think United should be 1.60 to beat West Ham at home and they are 1.80, then take the action. As a rule it is easier to manage your in-play position if you are backing teams to win, especially at home, than if you have laid the away team and they take an early lead.

[Brosef Stalin]

Sports betting has no such structure, in my opinion.

This is untrue.

The size of the bet may vary but your risk management comes from appropriate stop losses

If I had a betting bank of £1000 i would be risking 1% to 2% a trade.....doesn't necessarily mean
i'm putting bets of £10 and £20. I could put £100 on and get out if the trade moves against me
so that I hit the £10 stop loss. If it doesn't I leave it on and then re-assess. Far harder to figure
out where to get out than get in IMNSHO

But the movements in in-play markets are generally too wild to operate a hard and fast rule on stop losses. It's very difficult to tie in a minimum loss if a game moves against you.

They're not really that wild...it's reasonably predictable where the price will move if an event happens
(i.e. a goal - look where the price is at +1.5 goals). Football is a low scoring game as well.

You can trade around time decay and events happening with various simple strategies.

[Top Flight]

This is untrue.

The size of the bet may vary but your risk management comes from appropriate stop losses

If I had a betting bank of £1000 i would be risking 1% to 2% a trade.....doesn't necessarily mean
i'm putting bets of £10 and £20. I could put £100 on and get out if the trade moves against me
so that I hit the £10 stop loss. If it doesn't I leave it on and then re-assess. Far harder to figure
out where to get out than get in IMNSHO

But the movements in in-play markets are generally too wild to operate a hard and fast rule on stop losses. It's very difficult to tie in a minimum loss if a game moves against you.

They're not really that wild...it's reasonably predictable where the price will move if an event happens
(i.e. a goal - look where the price is at +1.5 goals). Football is a low scoring game as well.

You can trade around time decay and events happening with various simple strategies.

How?

[Brosef Stalin]

will some up when I get a bit of time

[genome]

Fulham look a great shout at 8/1 to be relegated on bet365.

Lost both McCormack and Dembele (who scored 40 of their 66 league goals last season) and even then they still struggled last year.

[Top Flight]

I'm still eagerly awaiting Brosef.

Good news, My Bet 365 account currently stands at £111. So I am up £11 from my starting point and I have 2 open bets running.
One is Newcastle to win at Fulham on Friday night so that could raise me to £131. And the other is North Melbourne to win the AFL title. That is unlikely to happen but if it did that would win me £200. If neither of those bets win then I'm still on £111 so I'd still be up £11.

My Betfair is now up to £92. So I have recovered slightly from the £78 that I was at. But I'm still £8 down from my starting point on Betfair. But, I do have 1 open bet (£20 stake) on Betfair which hasn't been decided yet. So maybe I'm really on £112 at the moment until that bet wins or loses. The open bet is that I have backed Trump to win the presidency from Clinton. The last few days seem to have reversed Trumps fortunes a little bit so probably I'll lose that bet. If I did win it though then I'd take £52 profit plus my £20 stake as well. That would raise my betfair to £164. I won't count on it though.

Anyone have any betting ideas for today? England are playing Pakistan in the cricket. England are 1.53 and the Pakistanis are at 4.75. Anyone have any thoughts on this fixture? I'm not sure whether to bet on this. I haven't faired too well in the cricket so far. I backed England to beat Pakistan in the first test and they lost. So I backed Pakistan in the second and they lost. I backed Australia to beat Sri Lanka and they lost, but fortunately on that one, I cashed out for a £3 profit as Mendis was taking the Aussies apart. I then backed Middlesex last night and they lost as well. So, I may stay out of the cricket.

The Aussies and Sri Lanka meet again tomorrow for their second test. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

[Top Flight]

Fulham look a great shout at 8/1 to be relegated on bet365.

Lost both McCormack and Dembele (who scored 40 of their 66 league goals last season) and even then they still struggled last year.

Yes, I think you might be right on that one. Who's their manager these days?

[double d]

I'm still eagerly awaiting Brosef.

Good news, My Bet 365 account currently stands at £111. So I am up £11 from my starting point and I have 2 open bets running.
One is Newcastle to win at Fulham on Friday night so that could raise me to £131. And the other is North Melbourne to win the AFL title. That is unlikely to happen but if it did that would win me £200. If neither of those bets win then I'm still on £111 so I'd still be up £11.

My Betfair is now up to £92. So I have recovered slightly from the £78 that I was at. But I'm still £8 down from my starting point on Betfair. But, I do have 1 open bet (£20 stake) on Betfair which hasn't been decided yet. So maybe I'm really on £112 at the moment until that bet wins or loses. The open bet is that I have backed Trump to win the presidency from Clinton. The last few days seem to have reversed Trumps fortunes a little bit so probably I'll lose that bet. If I did win it though then I'd take £52 profit plus my £20 stake as well. That would raise my betfair to £164. I won't count on it though.

Anyone have any betting ideas for today? England are playing Pakistan in the cricket. England are 1.53 and the Pakistanis are at 4.75. Anyone have any thoughts on this fixture? I'm not sure whether to bet on this. I haven't faired too well in the cricket so far. I backed England to beat Pakistan in the first test and they lost. So I backed Pakistan in the second and they lost. I backed Australia to beat Sri Lanka and they lost, but fortunately on that one, I cashed out for a £3 profit as Mendis was taking the Aussies apart. I then backed Middlesex last night and they lost as well. So, I may stay out of the cricket.

The Aussies and Sri Lanka meet again tomorrow for their second test. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

I think you should withdraw all your money and close your accounts. To me it seems like you have a problem (I worked in a betting shop for years and have seen people that have major and minor issues and they way you talk is the same as them)

[Top Flight]

I'm still eagerly awaiting Brosef.

Good news, My Bet 365 account currently stands at £111. So I am up £11 from my starting point and I have 2 open bets running.
One is Newcastle to win at Fulham on Friday night so that could raise me to £131. And the other is North Melbourne to win the AFL title. That is unlikely to happen but if it did that would win me £200. If neither of those bets win then I'm still on £111 so I'd still be up £11.

My Betfair is now up to £92. So I have recovered slightly from the £78 that I was at. But I'm still £8 down from my starting point on Betfair. But, I do have 1 open bet (£20 stake) on Betfair which hasn't been decided yet. So maybe I'm really on £112 at the moment until that bet wins or loses. The open bet is that I have backed Trump to win the presidency from Clinton. The last few days seem to have reversed Trumps fortunes a little bit so probably I'll lose that bet. If I did win it though then I'd take £52 profit plus my £20 stake as well. That would raise my betfair to £164. I won't count on it though.

Anyone have any betting ideas for today? England are playing Pakistan in the cricket. England are 1.53 and the Pakistanis are at 4.75. Anyone have any thoughts on this fixture? I'm not sure whether to bet on this. I haven't faired too well in the cricket so far. I backed England to beat Pakistan in the first test and they lost. So I backed Pakistan in the second and they lost. I backed Australia to beat Sri Lanka and they lost, but fortunately on that one, I cashed out for a £3 profit as Mendis was taking the Aussies apart. I then backed Middlesex last night and they lost as well. So, I may stay out of the cricket.

The Aussies and Sri Lanka meet again tomorrow for their second test. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

I think you should withdraw all your money and close your accounts. To me it seems like you have a problem (I worked in a betting shop for years and have seen people that have major and minor issues and they way you talk is the same as them)

Closing my betting account is not going to help me hit my target of £1000 profit by the end of the season. I want to turn £100 into £1000.
Help me fine tune my betting and become a professional bettor rather than tell me I've got problems and should close my account.
I will strichtly follow the rules and stay disciplined and adhere to good risk/money management strategies in order to advance.

[Top Flight]

The reason I'm asking so many questions and telling you exactly what I'm betting on and what money I have in my betting accounts is because I'm hoping I'm going to receive some good advise from some of you experienced and good bettors on here. I just want to learn and become a good bettor. Don't just brush me aside with negativity and tell me to shut up shop and withdraw my bucks. Help me become good at betting.

Good betting is all about finding value and assessing risk, isn't it? Isn't that why it's good to become knowledgeable about more obsure leagues and betting markets. Because, you are more likely to spot value there?

I noticed that in the Iran pro league. In the first round of matches. 4 games ended in a draw and the other 4 games were decided by a single goal. In the second round of matches. 6 games ended in a draw and 2 games were decided by a single goal. Therefore, surely there is good value to bet on draws in that league? Does that make sense?