Manager of the month

User avatar
T.R.O.L.I.
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6526
Joined: 17 Mar 2005 14:47
Location: 2 down, far right - Still recovering from the weekend's excesses

by T.R.O.L.I. » 24 Jan 2007 16:37

79Royal
SpaceCruiser
79Royal I'm all for Coppell getting the recognition he deserves, but surely Wenger should be the winner this month?


No.


Blunt and to the point!

Given his record this month, I'd be disappointed not to win it if I were Wenger. 5 games, 5 wins, 17 goals and three games still to come.

If Arsenal avoid defeat in those games, it should really go to Wenger.


Cup games don't count towards Manager of the Month :roll:

So its 3 wins from 3 with 8 goals scored - no more league games in Jan
Boro have 3 wins from 3 with 11 goals scored - 1 league game to come
RFC have 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 games with 10 goals scored - 1 league game to come

As such, I reckon it'll be Southgate unless they get tonked by Pompey and we win against Wigan.

User avatar
T.R.O.L.I.
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6526
Joined: 17 Mar 2005 14:47
Location: 2 down, far right - Still recovering from the weekend's excesses

by T.R.O.L.I. » 24 Jan 2007 16:41

Ian Royal
valiant royal
Ian Royal there is a curse spacey, just because there is little rational explanation of something does not mean it doesn't neccessarily happen.

the vast majority of teams usually perform significantly worse the season after winning manager of the month. Only teams who are far and away superior to the rest of the league don't usualy suffer. Like us last season and probably Man U this season


But there is a rational explanation....

The manager gets awarded MOTM because the side has put in an exceptionally good performance in that month. So it stands to reason that it's unlikely that they'll do as well in the following month.

Unless they play at exactly the same level every month this is always going to happen - you always get a drop after a peak - nothing to do with a curse at all.


that would explain a small dip in form. not losing most of the games in the next month. Next!


IIRC, SSC won MOTM for September. Our next league game was West Ham away, followed by Chelsea (H), Arsenal (H) and Pompey (A). Answer this one - which are the harder set of fixtures?

Man City (H)
Sheff Utd (A)
Man Utd (H)

or

West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (H)
Pompey (A)

As I said earlier, not a "curse" (in whichever shape or form you want to dress it up), just how the fixtures come out which affects all bar those teams that are far better than other (Man Utd / Chelsea etc this year, RFC last season).

papereyes
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6027
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 18:41
Location: “The mother of idiots is always pregnant”- Italian proverb

by papereyes » 24 Jan 2007 16:52

T.R.O.L.I.
Ian Royal
valiant royal
Ian Royal there is a curse spacey, just because there is little rational explanation of something does not mean it doesn't neccessarily happen.

the vast majority of teams usually perform significantly worse the season after winning manager of the month. Only teams who are far and away superior to the rest of the league don't usualy suffer. Like us last season and probably Man U this season


But there is a rational explanation....

The manager gets awarded MOTM because the side has put in an exceptionally good performance in that month. So it stands to reason that it's unlikely that they'll do as well in the following month.

Unless they play at exactly the same level every month this is always going to happen - you always get a drop after a peak - nothing to do with a curse at all.


that would explain a small dip in form. not losing most of the games in the next month. Next!


IIRC, SSC won MOTM for September. Our next league game was West Ham away, followed by Chelsea (H), Arsenal (H) and Pompey (A). Answer this one - which are the harder set of fixtures?

Man City (H)
Sheff Utd (A)
Man Utd (H)

or

West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)
Arsenal (H)
Pompey (A)

As I said earlier, not a "curse" (in whichever shape or form you want to dress it up), just how the fixtures come out which affects all bar those teams that are far better than other (Man Utd / Chelsea etc this year, RFC last season).


What TROLI says is true.

User avatar
T.R.O.L.I.
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6526
Joined: 17 Mar 2005 14:47
Location: 2 down, far right - Still recovering from the weekend's excesses

by T.R.O.L.I. » 24 Jan 2007 17:20

Your tenner's in the post, papereyes :wink:

Boston Royal
Member
Posts: 160
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 06:58
Location: Philadelphia (formerly Boston), USA

by Boston Royal » 24 Jan 2007 17:34

TROLI, papereyes, Valiant Royal are all correct (IMHO). It's simple mean reversion. If you roll a die many times, there will likely be a series of two sixes. The following outcomes will likely be lower, not because of any curse, but just reversion to trend.

For there to be no curse, you would have to have the awarded team performing amazingly in every subsequent month, which only happens if there's a clearly dominating team in the whole season (e.g. us last season).


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Linden Jones' Tash, Sutekh and 301 guests

It is currently 14 May 2025 18:42