A bit worrying

[Wycombe Royal]

Just one question, Schards - when you're selling someone a mortgage, if they're a couple with 1 kid, do you tell them not to go for a 3-bedroom house and just get a 2-bedroom one until they can fill it to capacity all the time, or are they allowed to plan ahead?

Don't mention anything like that or you'll have RL on your case accusing you of damaging his reputation.

[Schards#2]

If you really cannot understand that it does not matter when a game sells out to the home fans, but only whether it does or not, then there is no point in continuing this debate.

Led Zeppelin are playing a one off gig at the O2 arena, an estimated 2,000,000 applied for the 20,000 tickets.

The crowd at this concert will be 20,000.

If you cannot see that demand for this concert is higher than demand for other concerts at the O2 area that will also attract a crowd of 20,000 then you really aren't awfully bright.

Give it up !
I don't think even you know what point it is you are trying to make.

If you can't understand this rather basic concept, I think it's you who should give up, or maybe ask someone for some help. It's really not too difficult to follow.

[Schards#2]

We have 19 home games each season in the PL.

Working on this season's teams, we will be completely and utterly guaranteed to sell out every single seat available for at least 6 teams :
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester Utd, Newcastle, Tottenham.

For another 4 we will sell virtually all - I'd say at least 80% :
Aston Villa, Everton, Manchester City, West Ham.

The demand for the other 9 teams is difficult to estimate, and will depend on just how well we and they are doing :
Birmingham, Blackburn, Bolton, Derby, Fulham, Middlesboro, Portsmouth, Sunderland, Wigan.

Based on these figures, and assuming 0% increase from the 9 least attractive clubs (unlikely!), we'd fill any extension to a figure of 48.4%.
I'm sure that can be cost justified and I'd be happy with that, because I'm sure that better pricing schemes and promotions such as KFAQ would not only boost attendances for the less attractive games but would also bring the next generation of supporters into the ground. The statement of ambition from this would also help attract better players, too!

Just one question, Schards - when you're selling someone a mortgage, if they're a couple with 1 kid, do you tell them not to go for a 3-bedroom house and just get a 2-bedroom one until they can fill it to capacity all the time, or are they allowed to plan ahead?

Although you're analogy is slightly less than a direct comparison, I will respond by suggesting that a couple has some control over the likely attendance at their home, more so than a football club which is subject to all sorts of variables, not least, which division they are in.

Oh, and I advise on mortgages rather than sell them!

[Behindu]

[If you can't understand this rather basic concept, I think it's you should give up, or maybe ask someone for some help. It's really not too difficult to follow.

The Led Zep issue is indeed easy.

Your problem is how it has any relevance to whether the Madejski would benefit from having 6000 extra seats.

But then you've never actually addressed that.

You long ago diverted off onto a one man sidetrack and have ignored all efforts to bring you back into the fold.

Everyone TOTALLY understands that there is a difference between DEMAND and SALES. It's easy, no one has questioned it.

But I suspect everyone's patience has run out with your inability to take the blinkers off and see there is a whole different debate going on to which your obession is just a tiny tangent.

[Skyline]

I was very impressed by yesterday's gate. Presumably, there is a sector of support that can make Sundays but not Saturdays.

Do you honestly believe that there are more people who can make Sundays but not Saturdays? I've not got the figures to hand, but I'd be seriously surprised if they showed that in general Sunday games are better attended than Saturday games. If they were I'm sure the club would be lobbying to have all our home games played on a Sunday rather than a Saturday.

You would do well to acknowledge that you can't do any more than sell every ticket, so highlighting the fact the a crowd this year was higher than a crowd in a previous year, where we sold every ticket, is a worthless argument which, frankly, undermines the credibility of any other point you make.

I honestly cannot understand how an obviously intelligent bloke like yourself cannot see how you are shooting yourself in the foot here. You are the one who has been harping on about our attendances being lower this year than last, despite the fact that they haven't.

Of course I know that it is impossible to do more than sell every ticket. But the fact is that we have continued to do so, despite the fact that we are not doing as well this year as last, and we have lost the 'novelty value' of our first season in the Premiership. How you can fail to see that, far from undermining my point, this fact deals a heavy blow to yours, is beyond me.

Led Zeppelin are playing a one off gig at the O2 arena, an estimated 2,000,000 applied for the 20,000 tickets.

The crowd at this concert will be 20,000.

If you cannot see that demand for this concert is higher than demand for other concerts at the O2 area that will also attract a crowd of 20,000 then you really aren't awfully bright.

Straw man argument. Not only do you consistently ignore the fact that we are still selling out, you have also ignored the points that have been made several times on here about the expansion allowing the club to offer different pricing deals, about making it worthwhile for the club to start advertising games again, and the comments that have been made several times about how difficult it still is for people who want to bring friends to a game.

[Katie Marsden]

The attendance showed why we should extend. Least attractive fixture of the season, on the back of a terrible run, on a Sunday with a stupid kick off time AND on Sky. Yet still most home seats were sold out.

[readingbedding]

It's a no-brainer having this extension.
Sooner the better.

[SpaceCruiser]

Yep, lets spent millions to accomodate one fixture that we may well not have by the time the extention is completed.

You don't think that we'll play the likes of Manchester United again in the future????

[Schards#2]

I was very impressed by yesterday's gate. Presumably, there is a sector of support that can make Sundays but not Saturdays.

Do you honestly believe that there are more people who can make Sundays but not Saturdays? I've not got the figures to hand, but I'd be seriously surprised if they showed that in general Sunday games are better attended than Saturday games. If they were I'm sure the club would be lobbying to have all our home games played on a Sunday rather than a Saturday.

You would do well to acknowledge that you can't do any more than sell every ticket, so highlighting the fact the a crowd this year was higher than a crowd in a previous year, where we sold every ticket, is a worthless argument which, frankly, undermines the credibility of any other point you make.

I honestly cannot understand how an obviously intelligent bloke like yourself cannot see how you are shooting yourself in the foot here. You are the one who has been harping on about our attendances being lower this year than last, despite the fact that they haven't.

Of course I know that it is impossible to do more than sell every ticket. But the fact is that we have continued to do so, despite the fact that we are not doing as well this year as last, and we have lost the 'novelty value' of our first season in the Premiership. How you can fail to see that, far from undermining my point, this fact deals a heavy blow to yours, is beyond me.

Led Zeppelin are playing a one off gig at the O2 arena, an estimated 2,000,000 applied for the 20,000 tickets.

The crowd at this concert will be 20,000.

If you cannot see that demand for this concert is higher than demand for other concerts at the O2 area that will also attract a crowd of 20,000 then you really aren't awfully bright.

Straw man argument. Not only do you consistently ignore the fact that we are still selling out, you have also ignored the points that have been made several times on here about the expansion allowing the club to offer different pricing deals, about making it worthwhile for the club to start advertising games again, and the comments that have been made several times about how difficult it still is for people who want to bring friends to a game.

Where do you start with as poor a post as that?

1. No I don't believe there are more people that can make Sundays as opposed to Saturdays which I why I have never suggested that. I suggested there may be some that can only make Sundays and, as we only have 1-2 Sunday home games a season, will go regardless of who the opposition is or whether it's on Sky.

2.We have not continued to sell every ticket

3. The Led Zep analogy is not a 'straw man argument' it's an explanation of how demand can be higher for one event as opposed to another even though they have the same attendance. something you seem desperate not to acknowledge.

4. I don't ignore any of the arguments, I merely make the point that demand has fallen from last year and, while anyone continues to deny this basic fact, I will continue to make the point.

5. The extention is a seperate argument to 4. I am not convinced that last year was not a high water mark for demand and a decision should be made at the end of the year. In view of the lack of sell outs, the club seem to be marketing more and offering special deals, lets see how these go throughout a season rather than making a decision on the basis of last year's demand alone. I would fully accept that the Derby gate is a tick in the plus box as opposed to the ticks in the minus box from the Everton/West Ham games.

If you're going to reply, please try and stick to arguing about the points i've made rather than imaginary ones.

[Skyline]

Where do you start with as poor a post as that?

Judging by the response, with an even poorer one.

1. No I don't believe there are more people that can make Sundays as opposed to Saturdays which I why I have never suggested that. I suggested there may be some that can only make Sundays and, as we only have 1-2 Sunday home games a season, will go regardless of who the opposition is or whether it's on Sky.

Maybe you should have made that point clear. Where have these people been in previous years when our Sunday attendances have been below our Saturday ones? Or has there been an increase in demand from the Sunday-only folks?

2.We have not continued to sell every ticket

OK, some figures for you. In five home league games, we have had a total attendance of 114,847. Total capacity of those five league games is 121,000. So we've failed to sell 6153 seats, or 5%. I don't have figures for the away attendances to work out how many home seats have been left unfilled, but given those numbers include the Wigan game (who couldn't've brought more than 500-odd) then I'd be surprised if there were more than 4000 seats left in the home ends over those five games.

3. The Led Zep analogy is not a 'straw man argument' it's an explanation of how demand can be higher for one event as opposed to another even though they have the same attendance. something you seem desperate not to acknowledge.

4. I don't ignore any of the arguments, I merely make the point that demand has fallen from last year and, while anyone continues to deny this basic fact, I will continue to make the point.

But, as has been pointed out before, you have no way of knowing what the actual demand has been for tickets. And even if the demand curve has changed meaning people with fewer points are the ones taking up the tickets, doesn't that just mean that the latent demand to watch football is there?

The Led Zep argument is a straw man. If the demand for that was 2,000,000, and the demand for most events is 40,000, do you honestly think that the owners of the O2 would refuse to extend it to 30,000 if they could? It's not about how many people you have to disappoint, it's about how many you can satisfy.

5. The extention is a seperate argument to 4. I am not convinced that last year was not a high water mark for demand and a decision should be made at the end of the year. In view of the lack of sell outs, the club seem to be marketing more and offering special deals, lets see how these go throughout a season rather than making a decision on the basis of last year's demand alone. I would fully accept that the Derby gate is a tick in the plus box as opposed to the ticks in the minus box from the Everton/West Ham games.

How can you say the extension is a seperate argument? This whole thread has been about the extension, with your argument apparently being that we don't need it because of lack of demand.

(On a side note, again, without having the away attendance figures to hand, it is not really possible to say whether a particular game is a 'plus' or a 'minus'.)

If you're going to reply, please try and stick to arguing about the points i've made rather than imaginary ones.

All I have been doing is trying to point out the opposite argument to the points you have raised. I don't need to invent any.

[Behindu]

2.We have not continued to sell every ticket.

It's been damn close. So close as to only be relevant to an uber pedant.

3. The Led Zep analogy is not a 'straw man argument' it's an explanation of how demand can be higher for one event as opposed to another even though they have the same attendance. something you seem desperate not to acknowledge..

It's a pointless analogy regarding a matter that isn't of dispute and has been acknowledged many times.

4. I don't ignore any of the arguments, I merely make the point that demand has fallen from last year and, while anyone continues to deny this basic fact, I will continue to make the point..

You've ignored EVERY arguement whilst banging on about something that is barely relevant in the context of expansion (and invetning 'facts' to support your 'point'

5. The extention is a seperate argument to 4...

No, the extension is THE argument and the 'demand' sideline is your personal obsession and blindspot.

I am not convinced that last year was not a high water mark for demand and a decision should be made at the end of the year. In view of the lack of sell outs, the club seem to be marketing more and offering special deals, lets see how these go throughout a season rather than making a decision on the basis of last year's demand alone. I would fully accept that the Derby gate is a tick in the plus box as opposed to the ticks in the minus box from the Everton/West Ham games..

- last season was clearly a high water mark to date, that doesn;t mean that a new high water mark can't be set. Unless of course we are left in the hands of those who with no imagination or ambition
- theclub have no scope for marketing, we effectively sell out every game (despite the pedants scrutinising the figures for the odd spare seat)
- decisons will be made before the end of the season, I suspect January will be the crunch time. Everything suggests there is only one answer to the question
- how do the Everton and West Ham games get a tick in the minus box ? Both over 95% capacity

If you're going to reply, please try and stick to arguing about the points i've made rather than imaginary ones.

I think that is a very funny comment !!!!

[Schards#2]

Skyline wrote:

Do you honestly believe that there are more people who can make Sundays but not Saturdays?

That is an imaginary point as no one had suggested this.

The extention is the main argument on which i've stated my position several hundred times but many choose not to read it.

The fall in demand is a side issue but one that I will continue to argue, much in the same way that I would argue with someone who thinks the world is flat.

[Wycombe Royal]

Something else that I can't see mentioned is that for most games this season only single seats have been left. This will put off quite a few people who would otherwise have attended as a family or group of friends. Last season this wouldn't have been so much of a problem due to the novelty factor.

[Behindu]

Something else that I can't see mentioned is that for most games this season only single seats have been left. This will put off quite a few people who would otherwise have attended as a family or group of friends. Last season this wouldn't have been so much of a problem due to the novelty factor.

It also greatly restricts the scope for STH to move their seats to be with guests.

[Riseley]

From my seat in the East their were loads of empty double/treble seats available in the Upper West and North stands yesterday. Par for the course for a near RFC sell out. When we nearly sell out our 30k stadium their will be thousands of invisible punters.

[Wycombe Royal]

From my seat in the East their were loads of empty double/treble seats available in the Upper West and North stands yesterday. Par for the course for a near RFC sell out. When we nearly sell out our 30k stadium their will be thousands of invisible punters.

Season ticket holders and others who don't turn up, hospitality seats not used, people moving seats those creating those double/trebles, etc, etc,.......

I sit in a group of five people and two of those weren't present yesterday.

[Dirk Gently]

There's always about 5% of ST holders who don't turn up for one reason or another - holidays, illness, car breakdowns etc.

[Skin]

I was pleasantly suprised that when I had to move my ST seat to sit with 4 new RFC members, the only seats together were in the 2nd row of North Stand.
This was 6 days before the game.

I guess anyone trying for anymore than 3 seats together, after tues last week would have struggled.

[Skyline]

Skyline wrote:

Do you honestly believe that there are more people who can make Sundays but not Saturdays?

That is an imaginary point as no one had suggested this.

Actually, it was a question, which you answered by clarifying your original point. Without that clarification it was reasonable to ask the question.

The extention is the main argument on which i've stated my position several hundred times but many choose not to read it.

The fall in demand is a side issue but one that I will continue to argue, much in the same way that I would argue with someone who thinks the world is flat.

Or that Neil Armstrong landed on the Moon?

So far the evidence you have presented for a fall in demand is not strong. As I've said repeatedly, just because the demand curve has (apparently) changed shape so the bulge is later in the points cycle, doesn't mean that demand has dropped off, it just means that people have been able to attend who might have wanted to last year but couldn't because they didn't have enough points.

[Riseley]

Opinion is obviously divided on this issue. Tens of thousands of us believe expansion is prudent and in the other corner is Schards with RL pretending to agree with him. Even Tredder would baulk at these odds.