Long - time for a change?

[brendywendy]

Arguably, he only failed to score five goals in open play in that period
BECAUSE DEFENDERS FOULED HIM AND GAVE AWAY PENALTIES

good point.

[brendywendy]

Personally I think that was wrong and he needed to get Long out of the firing line earlier because not only was he not scoring enough goals but his touch, workrate and general game wasn't where it should've been

touch maybe. "general game" and workrate are unquestionable for me.all season.

[Ian Royal]

Arguably, he only failed to score five goals in open play in that period
BECAUSE DEFENDERS FOULED HIM AND GAVE AWAY PENALTIES

good point.

But if you judge the chances against similar situations in one-on-ones he had at that time, I don't think he would actually have scored many. On the other hand I think he'd have put virtually all of them away if he got them now and wasn't fouled.

I can remember seeing him waste a good half dozen one-on-ones with a range of very poor to just unconfident finishes at that point and he didn't score any.

I still have concerns about whether he can maintain a decent scoring rate for us over any long period of games, but he is currently on fire as everyone acknowledges and is doing so much better now.

I think very few people questioned whether he had the potential to be a good striker. I think most, myself included, questioned whether after so long (sic) and plenty of set backs or faltering starts he was ever going to actually achieve it. Personally I thought he needed a fresh start elsewhere and would never hit the potential he showed early on.

McDermott's gamble is paying off. But earlier in the season it was looking a very dubious decision, just because it's come good at the moment doesn't mean it was necessarily the best decision to have made.

[brendywendy]

McDermott's gamble is paying off. But earlier in the season it was looking a very dubious decision, just because it's come good at the moment doesn't mean it was necessarily the best decision to have made.

or vice versa, but that wouldnt have stopped a million people coming on here and slagging the boy off

[Ian Royal]

McDermott's gamble is paying off. But earlier in the season it was looking a very dubious decision, just because it's come good at the moment doesn't mean it was necessarily the best decision to have made.

or vice versa, but that wouldnt have stopped a million people coming on here and slagging the boy off

Completely, though inaction will almost always be perceived as worse than action.

Just look at Coppell, he tried the same sorts of gambles in sticking with what he had and it failed. It could have been the best decision he could have made under the circumstances. But when what's being done isn't working, it is right and fair for it to receive criticism. There is no guarantee an alternate option will work better, it may be worse.

I think you have to work on the basis that a player can only have so many chances before they get dropped and something else is tried. Because of the number of false dawns Shane had, the length of time he'd been at the club, some of his earlier woeful performances and the often blinkered defence of him (just as blinkered as some of the more extreme criticism) I think it's quite understandable that a lot of people lost patience.

[facaldaqui]

Completely, though inaction will almost always be perceived as worse than action.

Just look at Coppell, he tried the same sorts of gambles in sticking with what he had and it failed. .

I think it's a myth that Coppell failed by sticking to what he had. The only two times he failed--in his last two seasons--he did vary it. He brought in people like Fae, Cissé, Kébé, Matejovsky--and Kitson and Little back on loan--for example. When things went pear-shaped after his last Christmas, he did start dropping old faithfuls such as Hunt and Harper in a desperate attempt to find a formula. In the end, he tried everything he could think of--but the squad as a whole had lost the plot.

[UpNorth]

Thank goodness Shane is delivering for us now because Church and Hunt do not look the part.

As others have said if he is able to maintain this sort of form he is going to be a wanted man. In the post mortem comments from the Donny manager he had this to say about Shane:

'..Shane Long was a threat. I said before the game that he should be playing in the Premiership and I dare say before long that he will, either with Reading or with another club.'

Hope its with us...

[Ian Royal]

Completely, though inaction will almost always be perceived as worse than action.

Just look at Coppell, he tried the same sorts of gambles in sticking with what he had and it failed. .

I think it's a myth that Coppell failed by sticking to what he had. The only two times he failed--in his last two seasons--he did vary it. He brought in people like Fae, Cissé, Kébé, Matejovsky--and Kitson and Little back on loan--for example. When things went pear-shaped after his last Christmas, he did start dropping old faithfuls such as Hunt and Harper in a desperate attempt to find a formula. In the end, he tried everything he could think of--but the squad as a whole had lost the plot.

I think it's over-stated yes, but he did stick too long with the same players on many occasions and is on record as having said he decided against what sounded like very decent signings to avoid disrupting the squad iirc.

And it's the best recent ish example I could think of to high light the point.

[Snowball]

Shane makes the CCC Team of the Week along with Elwood and Pearcey

http://www.football-league.co.uk/page/T ... 94,00.html

[Snowball]

15 Graham Watford
13 Bothroyd Cardiff
13 Commons Derby
12 Becchio Leeds
12 Taarabt QPR
11 Long Reading
11 Sinclair Swansea
10 Holt Norwich
10 Iwelumo Burnley
10 McGugan Nott'm Forest
10 Morison Millwall
10 Sharp Doncaster

League goals only. Totals can include goals scored for other teams. Only 15 players can be displayed so others tied on the same number of goals as the player listed 15th, but alphabetically after him, will not appear.

[Snowball]

Long now 42 RFC goals in 8973 minutes played. (36 in open play)

a goal every 213 minutes = a goal every 2.36 games

Closing in on Kevin Doyle's 55 goals

[Snowball]

I was comparing Shane to Doyle. Here are the latest figures.



CCC


35 CCC and Cup Goals for Reading in 6842 Minutes, a goal every 195 minutes LONG
36 CCC and Cup Goals for Reading in 7140 Minutes, a goal every 198 minutes DOYLE


OVERALL

19,877 Minutes 77 Goals = a Goal every 258 Minutes Doyle
09,324 Minutes 43 Goals = a Goal every 217 minutes Long


Premiership

05 Premiership Goals in 1651 Premiership Minutes, a goal every 330 minutes = LONG
30 Premiership Goals in 9937 Premiership Minutes, a goal every 331 minutes = Doyle

INTERNATIONALS

0,583 Minutes - 5 Goals = a Goal every 117 Minutes, LONG
2,427 Minutes - 9 Goals = a Goal every 270 Minutes, Doyle

In Internationals Long is besting Doyle, scoring at better than twice Doyle's rate

Outside the Premiership Long is matching Doyle and just edging him.

Doyle wins on Premiership goals scored, but only because he's played more than six times as many minutes.






DOYLE, Premiership

9937 minutes - 30 goals = a goal every 331 minutes TOTAL
5492 minutes - 19 goals = a goal every 289 minutes for Reading
4445 minutes - 11 goals = a goal every 401 minutes for Wolves

[Arch]

Doyle wins on Premiership goals scored, but only because he's played more than six times as many minutes.

What method did you use to establish the causal connection here?

[Snowball]

Doyle wins on Premiership goals scored, but only because he's played more than six times as many minutes.

What method did you use to establish the causal connection here?

Que?

[SLAMMED]

What are CCC goals?

[Snowball]

What are CCC goals?

Try to work it out.

[Arch]

Doyle wins on Premiership goals scored, but only because he's played more than six times as many minutes.

What method did you use to establish the causal connection here?

Que?

How did you establish that it was because Doyle had played six times as many minutes that he had a better rate of scoring in the Premiership?

[Wimb]

Really pleased with the way Shane is finally finding the back of the net, it's 9 in 9 or something like that now I believe.

I still don't think he's up there with Doyle because his all round play is simply not as good as Kevin's was/is. That being said if he continues to develop as he has in the last 18 months then he may bridge that gap.

Ultimately though in my own opinion he's unlikely to ever be as good as Doyle was at the top of his game. That's irrespective of goal ratios or anything like that, just as a fans opinion from watching the two play, I can't see many in our history beating Doyle at his very peak.

Right now it's great we've held onto him and his goals are going to be absolutely crucial if we're to make the playoffs.

[Snowball]

Doyle wins on Premiership goals scored, but only because he's played more than six times as many minutes.

How did you establish that it was because Doyle had played six times as many minutes that he had a better rate of scoring in the Premiership?

Poor use of language (or is it you being deliberately obtuse?)

Not sure when Hob-Nob became Semantics Central, but

Premiership

05 Premiership Goals in 1651 Premiership Minutes, a goal every 330 minutes = LONG
30 Premiership Goals in 9937 Premiership Minutes, a goal every 331 minutes = Doyle

Simple enough. We know Long can score well in terms of goals per minute in the Premiership. We also know that 25% of his domestic goals (11) have been scored against Premiership teams and again, he has a good goals per minute for these games. He matches Doyle outside the Premiership and beats him in goals per minute in international games. I am saying that the only reason Long has (SO FAR) not matched Doyle's premiership goal-scoring record is that he hasn't played enough games yet.

Shane Long almost exactly matches Doyle's goal-scoring outside the premiership.

The English Football League Championship and Cups

35 Championship & Cup Goals for Reading in 6842 Minutes, a goal every 195 minutes LONG 22nd January 1987
36 Championship & Cup Goals for Reading in 7140 Minutes, a goal every 198 minutes DOYLE b. 18th September 1983 (3 Years 4 months, 4 Days older)
37 Championship & Cup Goals for Reading in 7140 Minutes, a goal every 193 minutes DOYLE b. 18th September 1983 (3 Years 4 months, 4 Days older)

Soccerbase, Wiki, other places have Doyle's RFC record as 37+19 = 55 goals. The RFC OS totals his goals as 38 + 19 = 56 goals

INCREDIBLY similar records. Barring injury it is extremely likely that Shane Long will surpass Doyle's Championship Goals-Scored Record. (He has 20 games to get that single goal, and then to score at least one more. He could yet finish this season on 45+ Championship & Cup Goals for Reading.

If Shane scores a goal in either of his next two games he will have beaten Doyle's goal goals per minute outside the Premiership. If he manages that single goal in the next THREE games (270 minutes) he will be slightly better than equal on goals per minute played 36 goals, one every 197 minutes. As a Championship striker, measuring performance by goals, he is the equal of Doyle in Doyle's Championship time at Reading FC.

Doyle's first game for RFC was 6-8-2005. He was 21 Years 10.8 months old. 19 Goals in
Long's first game for RFC was 28-12-2005. He was 18 Years 11.8 months old

Doyle's second Championship season began 10-8-2008 to 09-05-009 when he was 24 Years 10.8 Months old

[Snowball]

I had Shane's non-Prem Goals wrong.

He exactly matches Doyle's total non-Prem Goals!

37 Championship & Cup Goals for Reading in 7442 Minutes, a goal every 201 minutes LONG
37 Championship & Cup Goals for Reading in 7140 Minutes, a goal every 193 minutes DOYLE

To better Doyle's non-Premiership domestic goals per minute, he needs 11 goals in the next 20 games, so maybe next year!