In praise of Shane Long...

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Ian Royal
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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Ian Royal » 03 Apr 2011 22:37

Royal Rother That's strange. I'm very clear in my recollection of what he did when he came on here which was to big up Jimmy Kebe's contributions to the team at a time when he was being lambasted week-in week-out by the vast majority of this board. And then he moved on to Shane Long's contribution at a time when he was receiving similar treatment...

What do you think he did?


That represents the intent very accurately, if not the actual actions.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2011 22:40

41 (01) 3,510 Minutes 22 Goals, 07 Assists = A Goal every 160 Minutes Shane 2010-11
38 (05) 3,119 Minutes 20 Goals, 10 Assists = A Goal every 156 Minutes Gylfi 2009-10

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by cmonurz » 03 Apr 2011 23:31

Royal Rother That's strange. I'm very clear in my recollection of what he did when he came on here which was to big up Jimmy Kebe's contributions to the team at a time when he was being lambasted week-in week-out by the vast majority of this board. And then he moved on to Shane Long's contribution at a time when he was receiving similar treatment...

What do you think he did?


I think I was lucky enough to miss the Kebe stuff, but with regards to Long, Snowball tried to show that Shane was a proven goalscorer when he simply wasn't, that he was worth his place in the side based on his goalscoring when he simply wasn't, that his record when starting games was good when it wasn't, that he was bringing as much to the side as players like Doyle and Kitson did when he wasn't, and so on.

I don't dispute that Snowball's intention was to highlight the positive contribution that Long brought to the team then, and his opinion that he was a player who could (and would) improve immensely, and that opinion has been wholly vindicated, but I'm not going to pretend Snowball came on here simply saying 'give the lad a chance, he's got potential', because that's not what happened in the slightest.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2011 23:55

cmonurz
Royal Rother That's strange. I'm very clear in my recollection of what he did when he came on here which was to big up Jimmy Kebe's contributions to the team at a time when he was being lambasted week-in week-out by the vast majority of this board. And then he moved on to Shane Long's contribution at a time when he was receiving similar treatment...

What do you think he did?


I think I was lucky enough to miss the Kebe stuff, but with regards to Long, Snowball tried to show that Shane was a proven goalscorer when he simply wasn't, that he was worth his place in the side based on his goalscoring when he simply wasn't, that his record when starting games was good when it wasn't, that he was bringing as much to the side as players like Doyle and Kitson did when he wasn't, and so on.

I don't dispute that Snowball's intention was to highlight the positive contribution that Long brought to the team then, and his opinion that he was a player who could (and would) improve immensely, and that opinion has been wholly vindicated, but I'm not going to pretend Snowball came on here simply saying 'give the lad a chance, he's got potential', because that's not what happened in the slightest.


I came on and said he was A MUCH BETTER PLAYER THAN HE WAS BEING GIVEN CREDIT FOR.

I said his goals per minute-played ratio was excellent.

Season 1 (age 18-19) he played 565 Minutes and got 3 Goals, a goal every 188 Minutes.

Season 2 (age 19-20) he played 1110 Minutes and got 4 Goals, a goal every 277 Minutes

Combined that's 1665 Minutes for 7 Goals, a goal every 238 Minutes, very respectable.

I also said he would be a:

10-Goal player in the Premiership,

or a 20-Goal Player in the Championship,

or a 30-Goal Player in League 1,

IF he played all games and started.


In his two Premiership Seasons he was scoring at a goals/minute rate that was the equivalent of a 10+ season. He just didn't play enough. I said at the time he needed to be played, needed to start, and wasn't getting many consecutive starts (and many of his starts were cup games)

Season 1 = 01 League Starts. 5 Cup Starts
Season 2 = 09 League Starts. 3 Cup Starts 10 League Starts Cumulative (2 Seasons - average 05 per season)
Season 3 = 07 League Starts. 3 Cup Starts 17 League Starts Cumulative (3 Seasons - average 06 per season)
Season 4 = 11 League Starts. 4 Cup Starts 28 League Starts Cumulative (4 Seasons - average 07 per season)
Season 5 = 22 League Starts. 2 Cup Starts 50 League Starts Cumulative (5 Seasons - average 10 per season)

FOUR SEASONS, FOUR YEARS, 28 League Starts.

FIVE SEASONS, FIVE YEARS, 50 League Starts

And this season he will hopefully have 45 league starts

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2011 23:56

Actually you are WRONG,when I first posted about Shane, I did NOT say he should be in the side.

I was on record as saying that Doyle-Hunt was our best partnership.

My beef was about the slagging Long got


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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by cmonurz » 03 Apr 2011 23:59

I'm not arguing it with you, I know what happened.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2011 00:13

cmonurz I'm not arguing it with you, I know what happened.


Ha ha Ha. The Posts are there, why don't you quote them?

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Royal Rother » 04 Apr 2011 00:22

All he did was report the facts about RFC players in a way no-one had ever reported them before. Then he told us he was a published writer, a lecturer and goodness knows what else.

One or 2 minor inaccuracies were then seized upon by the masses with great glee although they were almost completely irrelevant to the main crux of the issues he was presenting. And he gave as good as he got, unfortunately sometimes with bells and whistles on. So from then on he became an outcast from all but a few who read what he says with eyes open. Some even called for him to be banned because he makes lots of posts on the same threads, generally complimentary and factual about RFC players on the RFC Discussion Forum. I mean, for god's sake.... :roll:

In all the posts I have read he has never EVER said that Long is a better player than Doyle (in fact the absolute opposite is the case), but because he shows stats that illustrate Long's goalscoring record has always stood up to comparison with Doyle, and now is, on the bare face of it, better than Doyle's, most people just take the brainless interpretation "Snowball says Long's a better player than Doyle...."

It's all bollocks.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2011 00:31

Here is my first-ever post on Shane Long. 22-Jan-2009


A few of the more sensible posters on this list have pointed out that some members just decide to dislike certain players,
even when the stats say otherwise. Steve Hunt & Kebe, for example, either have scored or made 60% of our league goals

But it seems that almost everyone on this list has a down on Shane Long. I think you're all wrong.

Shane doesn't get to play many full 90 minute games, and coming on as sub for 5-15 minutes is never easy.

But Shane has earned some vital points for Reading this year. His brave last-ditch header against Southampton was HUGE for us.

The home game against Norwich was headed for a 0-0 draw. Long came on in the 80th minute, won a penalty in the 84th
which Hunt scored (1-0) and then Shane scored another.

Shane won the free-kick that led to Hunts FK and Doyle's goal at Birmingham

Long made both goals at Dagenham
Long made the third goal at Wolves

This is his record in minutes-played order... scores are for his time on the park

90 2-0 Dagenham Made BOTH goals
90 2-2 Stoke Premiership side. Scored in Pens. "Emphatic Penalty"
90 1-1 Southampton SCORED. Won vital point
68 3-2 Palace Played 68, winning 3-2 when subbed
65 2-1 BURNLEY SCORED
63 2-0 Birmingham Won Free Kick for Doyle's goal
60 4-0 LUTON Two misses, two saves, "electrifying pace"
60 0-0 Ipswich
36 1-2 Watford WON PENALTY for 2-2. "Stunning effort"
29 0-0 SOUTHAMPTON
28 1-0 Wednesday Hit the bar
27 1-1 CARDIFF
22 1-0 DERBY Made a clear chance for Steve Hunt
21 1-2 Preston
18 0-0 COVENTRY
17 0-0 PLYMOUTH "Terrorised defenders"
17 0-1 Bristol Forced a save
15 0-0 Sheff Utd
14 0-0 Charlton Two fabulous crosses for Hunt & Lita
14 1-0 SWANSEA
10 0-0 BLACKPOOL
10 2-0 NORWICH Won penalty for opening goal AND Scored
09 0-0 QPR
07 0-0 DONCASTER
06 1-0 Wolves Made third goal for Cisse


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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2011 00:51

!an Royal
23rd Jan 2009

RIght, now I've got rid of the meaningless pointless statistical drivel, I can get on with responding.

Long has started so few games, because he has been diabolical in pretty much every single one. He has a much much better record as a sub. But not exactly great. His sub appearances are always going to inflate his quality, because he is quick and comes on against tiring defences. Quite often defences who have already lost the game.

Long will NEVER, EVER score 20 goals in a season at this level.

There are two main reasons for this, one which causes the second. Those are:

1) He isn't even close to good enough
2) Because of 1) He'll never start enough games to manage it.

Kitson didn't score 20 at this level, Doyle hasn't (yet) and both of them are 10 times the player Long is, and probably ever will be.



Doyle managed 18. Kitson had a 22, Ian.

Long is on 22 with 8 games to go.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Tails » 04 Apr 2011 00:52

This is embarrassing. Please Snowball, for the kids' sake, stop this onslaught!

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2011 01:13

23-Jan 2009

I made the point that Long was not better than the others

1871royals wrote:If Shane Long had been so great in 4 years SC would have considering him good enough to start regularly.



Doesn't follow. He has to be BETTER than Kitson-Doyle-Lita-Hunt etc just like a woman has to be BETTER than a man to get the job.


Start Season 1, 18 years old. Picked as a long-term prospect, not expected to play. Kitson-Doyle-Lita all playing well. Did not debut (as sub) until Dec 28th. Scored 3 in 273 minutes) Only one start in season.
Start Season 2, 19 years old. Kitson-Doyle start. Kitson injured so it's Kitson-Lita
Start Season 3, 20 years old. Tough season in a relegation year. Kitson-Doyle first choices. Long is 3rd striker. Lita has blown it big time.
Start Season 4, 21 years old. Doyle is having a great season, Noel Hunt is scoring for fun. Long s 3rd striker, regularly comes on for 25-30 minutes


Same thread

But seriously how does anyone break into a forward line like Doyle-Hunt?

Same Thread

First Coppell doesn't change winning sides. Doyle & Hunt, if fit are virtually undroppable.
Second Kevin Doyle is actually scoring the goals 17 League goals in 28 1 goal every 142 minutes
Third Noel Hunt is actually scoring the goals 10 League goals in 22 (5) 1 goal every 159 minutes



Same Thread

From the following Shef weds game onwards NHunt was first choice of the two. Why was that?

Snowball said: Because Noel Hunt is a very, very good striker and works perfectly with Doyle.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2011 01:22

FOUND IT!

POSTED 21 FEB 2009

Gordons Cumming wrote:Whatever................

If we get promoted Shane will be gone.



Snowball said: You might be right, and he will then become a top player elsewhere

I go on record as saying if he leaves Reading and avoids a serious injury he will score

10 Premiership goals
or
20 Championship goals DONE!
or
30 League One goals



in a season.


It's totally understandable that he doesn't shift Doyle or Hunt from their top-two striker positions
but I think if he had an extended run in a championship side he would be a decent striker


You may now take the p!ss, as is your wont. A few morons will say he has had an extended run, but he hasn't.

I think the best he's had is 3-4 games


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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Harpers So Solid Crew » 04 Apr 2011 08:15

Can you now do a similar campaign for S Church, he has way more potential than Long, but seems to have lost his way.

FWIW with Long he had a poor start and people said drop him, seems fair enough to me, Long has shown he can score from dec onwards, I would expect a team that has score as many as us to have one player with 20 goals

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Terminal Boardom » 04 Apr 2011 09:43

Harpers So Solid Crew Can you now do a similar campaign for S Church, he has way more potential than Long, but seems to have lost his way.

FWIW with Long he had a poor start and people said drop him, seems fair enough to me, Long has shown he can score from dec onwards, I would expect a team that has score as many as us to have one player with 20 goals


And what was also said many times about Long before December was that his work rate was not an issue.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by brendywendy » 04 Apr 2011 09:53

Harpers So Solid Crew Can you now do a similar campaign for S Church, he has way more potential than Long, but seems to have lost his way.




^^^^

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Ian Royal » 04 Apr 2011 13:57

Royal Rother All he did was report the facts about RFC players in a way no-one had ever reported them before. Then he told us he was a published writer, a lecturer and goodness knows what else.

One or 2 minor inaccuracies were then seized upon by the masses with great glee although they were almost completely irrelevant to the main crux of the issues he was presenting. And he gave as good as he got, unfortunately sometimes with bells and whistles on. So from then on he became an outcast from all but a few who read what he says with eyes open. Some even called for him to be banned because he makes lots of posts on the same threads, generally complimentary and factual about RFC players on the RFC Discussion Forum. I mean, for god's sake.... :roll:

In all the posts I have read he has never EVER said that Long is a better player than Doyle (in fact the absolute opposite is the case), but because he shows stats that illustrate Long's goalscoring record has always stood up to comparison with Doyle, and now is, on the bare face of it, better than Doyle's, most people just take the brainless interpretation "Snowball says Long's a better player than Doyle...."

It's all bollocks.


Well if the majority of us thickies can't understand this very obvious thing that you can see plainly, maybe snowball should have put his points across in better way given he's a professional writer and has taught stats, allegedly.

The majority of the problem I had was that he made massive leaps with limited or misrepresented data when it was unwarranted and that he posted so much meaningless data largely without any real commentary or analysis making it extremely difficult to discuss anything on the thread with people. Unfortunately whenever this was pointed out to him his reaction was such that it always ended up in a massive off topic argument about the reliability of his data and the fact you couldn't use it as a reliable guide for the conclusions he seemed to be suggesting. I say seemed, because he never actually spells out an opinion so its impossible to call him on it.

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Royal Rother » 04 Apr 2011 14:12

Well if the majority of us thickies can't understand this very obvious thing that you can see plainly, maybe snowball should have put his points across in better way...


You wanted his posts to be even longer?!!!?

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by ZacNaloen » 04 Apr 2011 14:24

Can someone find the quotes where people say Shane Long would never be a 20 goal a season striker please?

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Re: In praise of Shane Long...

by Terminal Boardom » 04 Apr 2011 14:27

ZacNaloen Can someone find the quotes where people say Shane Long would never be a 20 goal a season striker please?


Do it yourself you lazy twonk :lol:

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