Value on Long's Head?

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Snowball
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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Snowball » 22 Apr 2011 16:19

Ian Royal
SpaceCruiser We'd want more than £4m. It doesn't matter if any idiot on here doesn't think he's worth that, the most important consideration is how much would we need to replace him, no striker who scores 20 goals in one season is going to be cheap.


Kitson was. Cureton was. Long was. Doyle came close and was.



Doyle came close? Best was NINETEEN. (Oh, I see you edited the THIRTY) Long altready has 26 goals this season with 4/7 games to go)

What was Kitson's best? 21? 22?





IMO Long is more valuable than Doyle.



he's great in a 442 and could be even better on the right in 433
Last edited by Snowball on 22 Apr 2011 16:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Royal With Cheese » 22 Apr 2011 16:30

Snowball IMO Long is more valuable than Doyle.



he's greta in a 442 and could be even better on the right in 433

As with most of these things time will tell. As it stands, Longy is having a fantastic 2nd half of the season. If this continues for the next couple of seasons I would agree with you. What's sure is if he does I doubt he'll still be a Royal player.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Snowball » 22 Apr 2011 16:38

Long barely played in the first half of last season.


Since January 2010 he has scored 35 goals.


That 1.5 seasons of excellence, not half-a-season.



THIS season's first half he had 8/9 goals and scored 2 in game 24. That's hardly sh!te

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by KC Royal » 22 Apr 2011 19:23

rhroyal JM and NH do have a habit for negotiating brilliant deals for our club, so I'd hope we can pull off somewhere between £4m and £5m for Long. Anybody know when his contract is up? If he has another few years then great. If he can come out saying words to the effect of "I'd love to play in the Premiership, but if I stay here next year I'm really happy at Reading too and will try to help them go up" then even better.


His contract is up next year.

Nevertheless, if he gets 25 goals (which i think he will) then we should be looking at 5m minimum IMO, so gazzers post of 5-6m sounds about right to me.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by SCIAG » 22 Apr 2011 23:06

Snowball
2 world wars, 1 world cup At the mo he's great - 4-5million minimum. Better than Doyle and Kitson.

However only seemed to be able to provide the goods when every last piece of the RFC jigsaw was put in place.

I'm not sure if anyone can really dig too deep in their pockets for an "in the right conditions only" player, who was unable to score from free play in almost half a season :oops: :oops: :oops:

How many Reading players have gone on to be just as good/better without RFC around them? He'd be better off staying with us for the foreseeable future because BM has created the "right conditions". At the moment he's awesome - for us, in the right conditions.



2WW, think of it like this.

In SIX seasons, Long has only had ONE period where he was unable to score in open play. A whopping 13 games. And he was winning penalties and scoring them

Then check and see Doyle's longest few blank runs for RFC

Rubbish. Firstly, Long didn't get in the team for the first half a season, then barely played for another two seasons (and didn't set the world alight when he did play, in fact he got dropped in favour of Seol). He didn't score a great deal in 07/08, adding three (half Doyle's number, despite Doyle having a spell on the right). In 08/09, he scored nine, last season, that was six. Before November/December, he was not a proven goalscorer, and we'd have been lucky to get £2m for him IMO.

Doyle's long blank run in 08/09 was because he kept getting kicked, and when he was forced down referees didn't give penalties. That's one of the main differences between Doyle and Long. Doyle is the better player, he has more quality on the ball, he's better in the air, he's more intelligent and he's a better finisher. Doyle was clinical, and Long is going on his first really good scoring run- I still worry that he's going to blast a simple chance over, especially at penalties. What he does have is a lot of pace, which earns him chances Doyle wouldn't get, and for whatever reason he is better at winning penalties than Doyle, which means it doesn't matter so much when he is fouled as Harte or Sigurdsson could step up (or even Long himself, though as I said, he isn't a very good penalty taker).

Maybe Long's good run of form will do us favours and we'll get £5m or so for him, IMO we should bite their hands off for that as he's had just over half an excellent season. £4m would be about a fair price, it could easily be £2m or less in a year. If we win the playoffs, I wouldn't accept any sum from an English side. On the off chance a foreign side (probably German) wants to sign him, I'd accept silly money (£7m+).


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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Snowball » 23 Apr 2011 00:13

Sciag, you're not talking sense.

Check: Career (RFC) Long's goals per minute, better than Doyle.

Last HALF-season Long got 9 goals. Doyle's best FULL season was 19.

This season Long already has 4 more than that 19 = 23


Look at Long's most recent three seasons versus Doyle's two Championship seasons

"83.67 Games" 37 Goals = a Goal every 2.61 Games Doyle
"91.50 Games" 41 Goals = a Goal every 2.23 Games Long


And if you look at Long's games there you'll see it corresponds to two 46 game seasons, 41 goals




DOYLE
43 (08) = 44.33 Games = 19 Goals 2005-06
39 (02) = 39.33 Games = 18 Goals 2008-09

82 (10) = 83.67 Games = 37 Goals TOTAL (Championship)


LONG
46 (01) = 46.16 Games = 23 Goals 2010-11
24 (12) = 26.00 Games = 09 Goals 2009-10
15 (26) = 19.33 Games = 09 Goals 2008-09

85 (39) = 91.50 Games = 41 Goals

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Snowball » 23 Apr 2011 00:22

SCIAG

Doyle is the better player, he has more quality on the ball, he's better in the air, he's more intelligent and he's a better finisher. Doyle was clinical, and Long is going on his first really good scoring run- I still worry that he's going to blast a simple chance over, especially at penalties. What he does have is a lot of pace, which earns him chances Doyle wouldn't get, and for whatever reason he is better at winning penalties than Doyle, which means it doesn't matter so much when he is fouled as Harte or Sigurdsson could step up (or even Long himself, though as I said, he isn't a very good penalty taker).

Maybe Long's good run of form will do us favours and we'll get £5m or so for him, IMO we should bite their hands off for that as he's had just over half an excellent season. £4m would be about a fair price, it could easily be £2m or less in a year. If we win the playoffs, I wouldn't accept any sum from an English side. On the off chance a foreign side (probably German) wants to sign him, I'd accept silly money (£7m+).




Shane is more clinical than Doyle

ON Off Gls

51 37 19
43 31 18

94 68 37 A goal every 4.38 Shots/Headers DOYLE



54 44 23
24 20 09
17 18 09


95 82 41 A goal every 4.31 Shots/Headers LONG

And if you remember that Long had his barren patch early this season (13 games with no open-play goals)
you should realise that for the rest of these three seasons his lethality has been FAR better than Doyle.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by SCIAG » 23 Apr 2011 13:50

Snowball Look at Long's most recent three seasons versus Doyle's two Championship seasons

"83.67 Games" 37 Goals = a Goal every 2.61 Games Doyle
"91.50 Games" 41 Goals = a Goal every 2.23 Games Long

And if you look at Long's games there you'll see it corresponds to two 46 game seasons, 41 goals

DOYLE
43 (08) = 44.33 Games = 19 Goals 2005-06
39 (02) = 39.33 Games = 18 Goals 2008-09

82 (10) = 83.67 Games = 37 Goals TOTAL (Championship)

LONG
46 (01) = 46.16 Games = 23 Goals 2010-11
24 (12) = 26.00 Games = 09 Goals 2009-10
15 (26) = 19.33 Games = 09 Goals 2008-09

85 (39) = 91.50 Games = 41 Goals

You cannot look at things simply in terms of statistics. Sekou Baradji set up a goal every two minutes, so if we'd have played him in midfield for the whole of 05-06, we'd have scored 45 goals per game.

In 05-06, Doyle played in a side where he was one of many avenues towards scoring a goal. He was one of three strikers, plus four midfielders, who were serious goal threats, and later the team were constantly trying to tee up Graeme Murty. We did not spend most of the match trying to get the ball to Doyle so he could score.

In 08-09, Doyle was our main striker for half the season. He scored 14-18 goals (I don't know how many he scored in the second half, I just know it wasn't many). Then teams realised he was the best player in the league and kicked him off the park. Referees did not award penalties for said fouls. Doyle would often get half a shot away as he was being fouled, and they would usually be on target. If those penalties had been awarded against Doyle, he might have scored some of them (or one of the Hunts or Kitson would have, I think Stephen was our full time taker by then but I also think Doyle might have been taking ones that he won), defenders would have been less keen to just foul him, and he would have scored more goals, probably finishing on a similar total to Long's this season.

Long is largely about power, and he has an unorthodox finishing technique. He also puts his fair of shots into orbit. Doyle had a very orthodox finishing technique, usually side-footing his shots. This is reflected in his ratio of shots on target to shots off target being better than Long's, but Long's ratio of shots on target to goals being noticeably better. Shots-to-goals are so close that it isn't worth making a thing of the difference. In my opinion, the fact that Doyle was betetr at getting his shots on target than Long means that he is more clinical. If you disagree statistically, you are only arguing semantics. If you disagree through your observation of players (something you don't seem to do), then... okay.

Additionally, you can't ask me to factor in Long's barren spell where he missed a lot of sitters if you won't factor in Doyle's spell of being kicked off the ball.

When Doyle was at the club, Long usually came off the bench, and played against tired players. No one would say that Stephen Hunt was a better player than Bobby Convey in 05-06, but iirc they had similar goal-to-minute ratios. The effect of pace against tired player is devastating.

I like Long, he just isn't on Doyle's level. People forget too easily just how could that team were. Comparing Long to Doyle is like comparing Mills to Sonko... there's a resemblance, both are good players, but there are key differences, and it should be obvious who the better player is if you've actually seen them play. "Ah, but we only concede 2.1 goals per game and keep a clean sheet every 4.3 games with Mills, whereas over Sonko's career..."

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by MmmMonsterMunch » 23 Apr 2011 14:01

I think I actually agree with Snowball. Were we to sell Long, I honestly think we'll get at least what we got for Doyle - probably more.

This season Long's efforts have catapulted him into the limelight. His goals, work rate, pace & young age should mean we get more than we got for Doyle really.

Based on this season, I'd have to say Long looks better than Doyle as well & never thought I'd say that!

Strikers always cost a premium & there will be at least half a dozen Prem teams looking at him. Supply & demand - I suspect minimum sale price is about £6m but wouldn't be at all surprised if we get what we got for Gylfi & get £7m or so.


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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by SCIAG » 23 Apr 2011 14:20

MmmMonsterMunch His goals, work rate, pace & young age should mean we get more than we got for Doyle really.

The only one of those four in which Long really trumps old Doyle is pace. Long is 24, we sold Doyle aged 25. Doyle's work rate is similar to Long's. Doyle was a proven PL goalscorer and similar to Long in the Championship, Long is not a proven PL goalscorer. I think Doyle's intelligence and technique more than make up for his relative lack of pace. Even then, he's not slow.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by MmmMonsterMunch » 23 Apr 2011 14:45

SCIAG
MmmMonsterMunch His goals, work rate, pace & young age should mean we get more than we got for Doyle really.

The only one of those four in which Long really trumps old Doyle is pace. Long is 24, we sold Doyle aged 25. Doyle's work rate is similar to Long's. Doyle was a proven PL goalscorer and similar to Long in the Championship, Long is not a proven PL goalscorer. I think Doyle's intelligence and technique more than make up for his relative lack of pace. Even then, he's not slow.



I don't really see it as a contest as to who is best though. Doyle was a fine player but now very injury prone & IMO his stock has gone down. Long on the other hand - young, hungry, on fire & subsequently will be in demand.

Given the market is even more out of touch with reality than it was 2 seasons ago I will be surprised if we get less than what we got for Doyle.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Ian Royal » 23 Apr 2011 16:16

Doyle seems to have been a bit gimped by going to Wolves who've struggled this season. He still seems to get a lot of plaudits when he plays but doesn't put the ball in the net a lot.

A problem Doyle has always seemed to have is that he will go on fairly long barren spells when his team aren't creating much, despite still looking fairly good. You can't really compare that with Long because he's either been playing in fits and spurts, or in a long barren patch, bar a couple of months post Christmas and since just before Xmas this season.

There's no way of telling how Long'd go now in a team that suddenly found itself ineffective in going forwards, and how he'd do if another half a dozen games or more went by without him scoring. Especially at a higher level.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by SpaceCruiser » 23 Apr 2011 17:06

Ian Royal Doyle seems to have been a bit gimped by going to Wolves who've struggled this season.


Exactly. My thoughts on Doyle's transfer was that he went to the wrong club.


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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by MmmMonsterMunch » 23 Apr 2011 17:19

There's no way of telling how Long'd go now in a team that suddenly found itself ineffective in going forwards, and how he'd do if another half a dozen games or more went by without him scoring. Especially at a higher level.[/quote]


The fact he hasn't played PL football will have little bearing on how much money we get. Doyle & Kitson weren't hugely experienced in the PL & we got bloody good money for them. Long's stock is really high right now & 5 more games without him scoring would have no impact on what we'd get in the summer.

I just hope he doesn't end up at Wolves as well as I fcuking hate that club & hate seeing Doyle there. He could have done so much better for himself i.e. Villa, Everton, Fulham. Going there has done him no favours at all.

Hopefully they go down & Doyle gets a good move. Can't see Wolves getting back what they paid us though - if they go down it'll be a cut price £4m ish deal as they'll need to balance the books.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Ian Royal » 23 Apr 2011 18:41

:?: He has played PL football.

Doyle had two seasons in the PL, and Kitson had close to the equivalent of one over the two we were there.

Who said anything about 5 more games without scoring affecting his value?

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by MmmMonsterMunch » 23 Apr 2011 19:45

Ian Royal :?: He has played PL football.

Doyle had two seasons in the PL, and Kitson had close to the equivalent of one over the two we were there.

Who said anything about 5 more games without scoring affecting his value?



Hardly - he was a bit part player at best.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by MmmMonsterMunch » 23 Apr 2011 19:49

There's no way of telling how Long'd go now in a team that suddenly found itself ineffective in going forwards, and how he'd do if another half a dozen games or more went by without him scoring. Especially at a higher level.


^ This what was I was referring with regards to Long's value but I must've got the wrong end of the stick.

Anyway the point I have been trying to make all along is that at present there is no reason why we won't get min £6m for Long in the summer. And he will be going if we don't go up 100%.

You're right in that he may never reach the dizzy heights of the form he's found this year but they won't know that until we've pocketed the cash. He's a big fish in a small pond at the moment & has a good mentor in Brian...that won't be the case when he moves on.

Still I'd wish him well - if it weren't for him we'd never be in 4th now.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Royal With Cheese » 24 Apr 2011 09:42

Snowball Long barely played in the first half of last season.


Since January 2010 he has scored 35 goals.


That 1.5 seasons of excellence, not half-a-season.



THIS season's first half he had 8/9 goals and scored 2 in game 24. That's hardly sh!te

Don't start that again.

This season there were several detractors who basically said Long wasn't good enough. Certainly his recent form suggests the doubters are wrong.

The reason I specifically put half a season is to encompas the vagueries of the vast majority of people who don't endlessly pour ove statistics in the attempt to feel an misguided sence of superiority over normal people.

4 goals in the first 20 odd games this season did have many doubting that Shane would ever make the grade.

Anyway, in the real world we're both in agreement, even if it's for different reasons.

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by fester_royal » 24 Apr 2011 13:05

Royal Rother Don't worry.

The team has done better without Siggy, who's to say the same won't happen if Long were to go? If the conditions are right, the education complete and the management good, then someone will step up to fill the shoes and become the next star.

Be happy.


Lost gylfi, lost twenty goals, lose long lose twenty goals... Closest top scorer after that... Ian Harte on ten... Would be concerned for next year if we don't go up n get a striker who can score!!

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Re: Value on Long's Head?

by Millsy » 24 Apr 2011 13:30

Snowball I don't have the time or energy to discuss this with you because after all you were trying to defend Long even when he had no goals in open play.

Right now Long is better than Doyle *when we sold Doyle* so I would hope to see Long command at least a similar value but his history may prove to be a negative factor.

Dig up whatever stats you like and paint them in whatever way you like, equating won penalties, assists and nice haircuts directly to free-play goals but for those of us living outside a calculator, who watch matches and know a goalscoring striker when we see one, Long was really nothing more than supersub; a useful 4th or 5th option who would occasionally come off the bench with fresh young legs and score the odd goal, but who was a bit of a no-mark in every other regard. A bit like Church perhaps. Sure the likes of you and me and many others thought he had potential, which he is only just beginning to realise now, but for the most part he was a young supersub at best.

This season is the first he is actually being put to the test and it's been a bit of mixed season. First half - worst form I remember from any Reading striker, ever. Truly embarrassing. And cost us dearly. Then under the right conditions and with the benefit of the longest "trial run" ever given by any manager to any player that I can remember he tranforms into an absolutely fantastic player. Hats off to BM for seeing this potential and persevering with him, even though I daresay it really did cost us for half a season.

Overall therefore, I don't want to lose the guy if he continues playing like he is but if he relapses back to the sort of form where we have to start pretending goals don't matter again and have to start pointing at his kindness to animals and other attributes *cringe* then I'd say please please please someone take him off our hands now. All I'm saying is he's just starting to show his promise and I suspect managers would be a little more cautious than to pay a lot of money for him now. Still I don't want to loe him and would be gutted to lose him for any less than 5m.

I'm out of this thread now before the inevitable stats.

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