The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

Amazing stat here

(considering we are in 6th and top of the form tables, and have scored first in our last 3 games)



Table for "Scored First"

23rd P23 8 34.7% Reading
24th P23 7 30.4% Doncaster Rovers

As I mentioned on your other thread, it's one of the contributors to our good record on 'points lost from a winning position'.

How does it work with points gained from a losing position, then?

[cmonurz]

We have proven pretty good at recovering from a losing position. But statistically, likewise, falling behind is a required precursor to gaining points after falling behind; we are 5th on this particular stat, having fallen behind 13 times this season, and gained 12 points from those games.

Cardiff haven't won this season having gone behind, but it doesn't matter so much having only fallen behind 5 times in 23 games.

[Snowball]

We have proven pretty good at recovering from a losing position. But statistically, likewise, falling behind is a required precursor to gaining points after falling behind; we are 5th on this particular stat, having fallen behind 13 times this season, and gained 12 points from those games.

Cardiff haven't won this season having gone behind, but it doesn't matter so much having only fallen behind 5 times in 23 games.

We are joint second


1 23 3 4 13 Peterborough United (13)
2 23 4 0 12 Middlesbrough (3)
3 23 3 3 12 Reading (6)
4 23 2 6 12 Blackpool (7)

[cmonurz]

5th if you do it on points per game, but thanks for re-sorting this table.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oppscfst.html

[Svlad Cjelli]

5th if you do it on points per game, but thanks for re-sorting this table.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oppscfst.html

We might be 5th on this, but we only got 12 point from teh 13 matches where the opponent has scored first - under a point per match.

[cmonurz]

That's not bad really. Nearly 'averaging' a draw every time we go behind.

[Ian Royal]

What this shows us is that there are some pretty anomalous statistics showing up in our first half of the season. That's likely to even out some over the rest of the season, but it also shows you why stats don't tell the whole story and why a bit of analysis of the actual games themselves is most helpful.

We've been too hesitant much of the season, and only really seemed to get going when our dander is up. Like playing against our old Captain, or once we've gone behind and have a bit of adversity to fight. We've been too complacent and patient in games, thinking that eventually if we keep plugging away at the percentage stuff in second gear we'll score. Shown by our lack of first half goals.

We get woken up when something goes wrong and start going at it to set right our mistakes.

It seems now, that a few set piece goals and a couple of big games have shaken us up and we're starting to come out of the blocks properly. That's allowing us to control games better and shut them out effectively once we hit the lead.

The question now is, (when) do we tail off and get complacent following a run of good results. Will it happen / come too soon for a promotion, or will we hold on this time? Personally I think , like last season, this is a season too early for us. Although I think we're more likely to be able to keep crucial players this season, or at least the ones that go will be more easily replaceable without the early season confusion next time around. Then again I'm an eternal optimist where the medium term future is involved.

[Snowball]

5th if you do it on points per game, but thanks for re-sorting this table.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oppscfst.html

No "re-sorting" done AT ALL

I simply went to the site, clicked on Points Won"
(bottom left hand side)


and it takes you to this URL

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/ptsgain.html

[Snowball]

What this shows us is that there are some pretty anomalous statistics showing up in our first half of the season. That's likely to even out some over the rest of the season, but it also shows you why stats don't tell the whole story and why a bit of analysis of the actual games themselves is most helpful. // We've been too hesitant much of the season, and only really seemed to get going when our dander is up. Like playing against our old Captain, or once we've gone behind and have a bit of adversity to fight. We've been too complacent and patient in games, thinking that eventually if we keep plugging away at the percentage stuff in second gear we'll score. Shown by our lack of first half goals. // We get woken up when something goes wrong and start going at it to set right our mistakes. // It seems now, that a few set piece goals and a couple of big games have shaken us up and we're starting to come out of the blocks properly. That's allowing us to control games better and shut them out effectively once we hit the lead. // The question now is, (when) do we tail off and get complacent following a run of good results. Will it happen / come too soon for a promotion, or will we hold on this time? Personally I think , like last season, this is a season too early for us. Although I think we're more likely to be able to keep crucial players this season, or at least the ones that go will be more easily replaceable without the early season confusion next time around. Then again I'm an eternal optimist where the medium term future is involved.

I really cannot believe it's "hesitancy".

First I think McDermott recognised he needed to play things very tight
and we've been (maybe) a tad TOO tight.

Second, Elwood was horribly off-form/unfit at the start of the season
(after getting married in the summer, no connection) and he has gradually improved after a dire opening 6-7
games, Karacan has been getting better (after "something happened") and of course their PARTNERSHIP has
steadily improved.

Third a new centre-back pairing has been installed and is getting better and better.

Fourth, we signed a new striker who obviously took a little while to bed in.

Fifth, we started with a problem at left-back with Harte in a slump, and like
last season, he needed a rocket. New guy came in, was iffy for a couple of games
and then began to improve. That made Harte fight harder, and now we have TWO
half-decent left-backs with Griffin also able to play there.

Sixth, Kebe was off-colour and/or injured and took a few games to get back
to some decent form.


It's not rocket science, just as Church seems over an injury/confidence thing and is a more useful player.

[Snowball]

We have done pretty well when going behind

and we are top of the table on ppg when we score first


1st P8 7-1-0 : : 14-1 +13 GD 1.75 Avg Goals For 0.12 Avg Goals Against 2.75 ppg 22 Points Reading (6)

[Hoop Blah]

Forgetting stats - but instead looking at the current team versus last season's team man for man - I think there is now real cause for hope.

Fed 2011>>>>>>>>>>>Fed 2010 he seems to have largely cut out the silly errors of last season
Cummings>>>>>>>>>Griffin at RB - he really has come into his own
Pearce 2011>>>>>>>>Pearce 2010 - again a young player really coming good now
Gorkks>>>>>>>>>>>>Mills - a great improvement as far as I can see. Matt Mills was an enigma - a big game player but inconsistent
Harte/Griffin/Mills 2011 about equal to Harte 2011 - it has not been a problem but this has not been a settled position this season
Kebe 2011<<<<<<<<< not as good as Kebe 2010 but he is improving now
Legs 2011 now about the same level as Legs 2010
Karacan 2011>>>>> a little improved on Karacan 2010
McAnuff 2011 about the same as McAnuff 2010
Hunt/ALF 2011 about the same as Hunt/Church 2010
Church<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Long 2010 - the one area of concern. I like Church but he has yet to be anything like the player that Long became. He is a completely different type of player to Long to be fair and we simply don't have that focal target man type player in the squad at the moment. If we had one (say Long and ALF up front) I really think automatic promotion would be a good bet.

The good news is we are probably stronger at the back, very good in midfield, but just a little lacking up front at the moment.

I think the play off final defeat might be clouding your judgement a bit there (IMO).

I certainly agree that some of the individuals have come on this season (Cummings, Pearce, Federici etc) but I don't think we're quite seeing the number of >>>> for this years team.

Griffin, for the most part, was still pretty good last year. He wasn't quite as good as the loan spell the season before, but he's support of Kebe and general solidness at right back would still put him above Cummings of this season for me. Karacan si the only one from the midfield who's been close to last years form despite a massive improvement from Leigterwood over the last few gamse. Upfront we're miles behind last seasons effort when you take into account the whole season. At this time of last season then yeah, we're probably much of a muchness though.

The back four and keeper is the most interesting area of the team though. I think we're more soid but less spectular this season. Our bad game is much better than last years bad game, but we won't see as many big eye catching performances from this years defence in the way we did last year (this being an improvement IMO).

[Snowball]

What Hoop said

I think young Cummings may one day be a VVG player but he still has a long way to go

[Ian Royal]

Forgetting stats - but instead looking at the current team versus last season's team man for man - I think there is now real cause for hope.

Fed 2011>>>>>>>>>>>Fed 2010 he seems to have largely cut out the silly errors of last season
Cummings>>>>>>>>>Griffin at RB - he really has come into his own
Pearce 2011>>>>>>>>Pearce 2010 - again a young player really coming good now
Gorkks>>>>>>>>>>>>Mills - a great improvement as far as I can see. Matt Mills was an enigma - a big game player but inconsistent
Harte/Griffin/Mills 2011 about equal to Harte 2011 - it has not been a problem but this has not been a settled position this season
Kebe 2011<<<<<<<<< not as good as Kebe 2010 but he is improving now
Legs 2011 now about the same level as Legs 2010
Karacan 2011>>>>> a little improved on Karacan 2010
McAnuff 2011 about the same as McAnuff 2010
Hunt/ALF 2011 about the same as Hunt/Church 2010
Church<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Long 2010 - the one area of concern. I like Church but he has yet to be anything like the player that Long became. He is a completely different type of player to Long to be fair and we simply don't have that focal target man type player in the squad at the moment. If we had one (say Long and ALF up front) I really think automatic promotion would be a good bet.

The good news is we are probably stronger at the back, very good in midfield, but just a little lacking up front at the moment.

I think the play off final defeat might be clouding your judgement a bit there (IMO).

I certainly agree that some of the individuals have come on this season (Cummings, Pearce, Federici etc) but I don't think we're quite seeing the number of >>>> for this years team.

Griffin, for the most part, was still pretty good last year. He wasn't quite as good as the loan spell the season before, but he's support of Kebe and general solidness at right back would still put him above Cummings of this season for me. Karacan si the only one from the midfield who's been close to last years form despite a massive improvement from Leigterwood over the last few gamse. Upfront we're miles behind last seasons effort when you take into account the whole season. At this time of last season then yeah, we're probably much of a muchness though.

The back four and keeper is the most interesting area of the team though. I think we're more soid but less spectular this season. Our bad game is much better than last years bad game, but we won't see as many big eye catching performances from this years defence in the way we did last year (this being an improvement IMO).

Also a bit disingenius to compare Pearce with himself given Khizanishvili was just about the second CB, not Pearce.

I may have got it a bit bollox at the start of the season when I said our defence was better than last year (damn those high hopes for Khumalo), but now we have Gorkss it seems the case.

Give me steady and reliable mentally and physically over talented and stupid at centreback any day of the week.

[Snowball]

Kish and Pearce both played 23 (01) last season

[Ian Royal]

Kish and Pearce both played 23 (01) last season

But once Khiz started playing (remember he wasn't with us from the start of the season), it was mostly injury / suspension keeping him from being clear second choice in terms of number of games played. And he was favoured for the biggest game of our season.

[Snowball]

Kish and Pearce both played 23 (01) last season

But once Khiz started playing (remember he wasn't with us from the start of the season), it was mostly injury / suspension keeping him from being clear second choice in terms of number of games played. And he was favoured for the biggest game of our season.

And didn't he do well.



Please note, I merely posted their appearance figures

[Ian Royal]

Kish and Pearce both played 23 (01) last season

But once Khiz started playing (remember he wasn't with us from the start of the season), it was mostly injury / suspension keeping him from being clear second choice in terms of number of games played. And he was favoured for the biggest game of our season.

And didn't he do well.



Please note, I merely posted their appearance figures

How well he did in one game is irrelevant. Yeah, and those stats doesn't tell the whole story, as usual.

[Snowball]

How well (Kish) did in one game is irrelevant. Yeah, and those stats doesn't tell the whole story, as usual.

I agree, Kish surrendering at Wembley was "meaningless"

[melonhead]

gorkss and pearce >>>>kish and mills

[Snowball]

gorkss and pearce >>>>kish and mills

By a LONG way.

Both Kish & Mills had the ability to do special things
but they were nothing like as reliable as the pair we have now

With CBs, what's important is reliability


Now we worry about EITHER Gorks or Pearce MAYBE totting up 5 yelllows

With Mills we prayed he wouldn't get sent off AGAIN