The Snowball stat thread

[Snowball]

http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/20 ... mbers.html

The researchers analyzed the video of 286 penalty kicks from professional leagues in Europe and South America as well as from the European Championships and World Cup competitions. They coded each PK into one of three vertical (high, middle or low) and horizontal (right, center or left) directions. Shots that missed the goal were not included in these analyses. They also coded goalkeeper movements (jump right, jump left or stay central) and whether or not they stopped the shot. Using simple statistics, they compared the success of goalkeepers in stopping shots based on their movements and where the ball was placed.

From the penalty kicker’s standpoint, 85% of the penalty shots placed on goal were successful. A bit more than half of the shots taken were placed in the lower one-third of the goal (57%). These low attempts were successful ~80% of the time. By comparison, only 13% of shots were placed in the upper third of the goal. However, all of these efforts resulted in a goal scored (100% success).

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These were the best 5 keepers in one review

The fifth best in the Premiership conceded 77% of the pens

It's pretty obvious, if these are the best 5, that
15 keepers concede 78-100% of pens, so 85% looks likely


10 Scored, 3 Saved - Scott Carson (West Brom)
18 Scored, 5 Saved - David James (Portsmouth) The percentage of penalties scored against the Pompey custodian stands at 74% - respectable keeping for an OAP.
16 Scored, 7 Saved - Brad Friedel (Aston Villa)
04 Scored, 3 Saved - Manuel Almunia (Arsenal)
11 Scored, 6 Saved - Robert Green (West Ham) 53% of Pens were scored

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Jordet, G., Hartman, E., Visscher, C. and Lemmink, K. A. P. M. (2006)
Kicks from the penalty mark in soccer: The roles of stress, skill, and fatigue for kick outcomes. Journal of Sports Sciences, 1-9, Preview article.

This paper is an essential starting place for an analysis for the impact of penalty shoot-outs in competitive international football as it reports some empirical findings on events in penalty shoot-outs in the World Cup (WC), European Championships (EC) and the Copa America (CA). The results are fascinating; here is a glimpse. The percentage success rate in the World Cup is 71.2% compared to 82.7% (CA) and 84.6% (EC), possibly reflecting the greater importance and consequent pressure of the world stage. The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the competition:

First kick 86.6%
Second kick 81.7%
Third kick 79.3%
Fourth kick 72.5%
Fifth kick 80%
‘Sudden death’ kicks 64.3%

[Ian Royal]

In which case 85% of penalties are not converted.

[themadstad]

The play offs and our record in the play offs is poor.

Interestingly those predictions some posts back put us on 80 points which is 3rd highest so not quite top two.

If we want promotion we have to be going for top 2 and this year it really looks to be that bit too much. Certainly you couldn't even really say it's in our hands since we aren't in top two yet and have those that are up to there play yet - away.

[Snowball]

To get to 85 points by season end we'd need to have averaged 2.025 points per game over the 40 games.

Whilst we have pretty much that is last 26 what are the actual chances of maintaining that by another half. With the tough games in our run in chances aren't too great.

If you look at the point-per-game, over the 26 games it's 2.04

but look at PRECISELY what's happening, look at the moving average of 12 games.

We started badly, and games 7-12 weren't fantastic.

We had another bad month with WDDDD and THEN we really got it right

We have averaged 2.29 Points per Game for the last 16 Games

remember these are AVERAGES for the 12 games, and the average is INCREASING

We are now earning a full THIRTEEN points per 12 games MORE that we were by game 5-16

The first 12 games of this long run yield 1.55 points-per-game

We are now averaging 2.45 ppg OVER THE LAST 12...

if that 2.45 ppg was maintained we'd get another 34 points and finish on 91

1.36
1.18
1.27
1.27
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.73
1.45

1.64
1.64
1.82

2.00
1.91
2.18
1.91
2.18
2.18
2.18
2.45 The 12 Games 20-31
2.45 The 12 Games 21-32

[Ian Royal]

So those predictions put us on 80 points which is 3rd highest. That would be play offs and our record in the play offs is poor.

If we want promotion we have to be going for top 2 and this year it really looks to be that bit too much. Certainly you couldn't even really say it's in our hands since we aren't in top two yet and have those that are up to play yet.

It IS in out hands because if we win all our remaining games then we finish at least 2nd, ahead of Saints.

We win our game in hand, we're 2 points behind them. We beat them, we're a point ahead of them. No one else can over take us if we do that and we'd be 1 point behind West Ham at worst.

If we beat West Ham, we only have to better their remaining results by one win to a draw. Given West Ham are already averaging fewer points per game than us in current form that's not a huge ask.
If we beat Saints and win the game in hand, we only have to match their remaining results. Given Saints points per game (in recent form) is marginally worse than West Ham, that's not a huge ask either.

Blackpool have to better our results by three points with one fewer games. A match against them means that's again quite well in our control.
Birmingham can't pass us unless they better more than one result. And our match against them puts that really in our hands.

Cardiff, Brighton and Middlesbrough all have too much to do to make second IMO and are only a threat if we start to fall off the pace.

[Snowball]

Yes Ian, but it's even better than that.

Remember these guys are playing each other too!

[themadstad]

That's all ifs though. At home we couldn't beat them with 1 extra man on the pitch. They have pace in their team, like Cardiff where we lost 3-1 after a 4 game winning run. It is now not in our hands because we will have to go and win their and win out game in hand to take that kind of advantage. They keep winning and beat us at our place then it remains out of our hands. We are behind West Ham and have played the same number of games.

Say Birmingham beat us at home, that'll put us level. Or currently them ahead on GD so they can overtake us.

[Maguire]

Snowball = hands down the thickest man on Hob Nob

Can't count and now apparently can't read.

[Maguire]

Research quotes 85% of penalties (not in penalty shoot-outs) scored.

If they hit the target.

i.e less than 85% are scored

i.e you're thick

[Snowball]

That's all ifs though. At home we couldn't beat them with 1 extra man on the pitch. They have pace in their team, like Cardiff where we lost 3-1 after a 4 game winning run. It is now not in our hands because we will have to go and win their and win out game in hand to take that kind of advantage. They keep winning and beat us at our place then it remains out of our hands. We are behind West Ham and have played the same number of games.

Ian has explained that versus Saints it IS in our hand.

We have to

(a) Win our game in hand
(b) Win at Southampton
(c) Match their other results

Of course it's all "ifs", but our last 12 games we are averaging 2.50 points a game.

Saints are averaging 1.58 ppg.

We have gained ELEVEN points on them in the last 12 games

P12 10-0-2 9 Clean Sheets 1 Fail to Score 18-5 +13 30 Points 2.50 ppg Reading
P12 05-4-3 6 Clean Sheets 4 Fail to Score 17-9 +08 19 Points 1.58 ppg Southampton


Of course it can always change. Two defeats for us while they win two,
but sheesh, mate, we've had NINE clean sheets in our last 12 games
and are playing like a side going for a 115-Point Season

[themadstad]

Exactly we have to, so it's for us to do to get there. So not exactly in our hands.

[Franchise FC]

That's all ifs though. At home we couldn't beat them with 1 extra man on the pitch. They have pace in their team, like Cardiff where we lost 3-1 after a 4 game winning run. It is now not in our hands because we will have to go and win their and win out game in hand to take that kind of advantage. They keep winning and beat us at our place then it remains out of our hands. We are behind West Ham and have played the same number of games.

Say Birmingham beat us at home, that'll put us level. Or currently them ahead on GD so they can overtake us.

At the risk of sounding patronising, the definition of 'in our own hands' is that we can guarantee a result with our own performances that, should they be good enough, no-one can do anything about.

Our performances at West Ham, Southampton and Birmingham fall into that category.

[Snowball]

Reading FC 201-11


10 Penalties Awarded, 10 Scored = 100%

Long Palace
Harte Palace
Long Burnley
Long Norwich
Long Derby
Harte Hull
Long Palace
Long Portsmouth
Harte Scunthorpe
Harte Derby


I can't find any misses.

I'm sure someone will correct me if there were any.

[Snowball]

Exactly we have to, so it's for us to do to get there. So not exactly in our hands.

No, that means EXACTLY in our hands

[themadstad]

That's all ifs though. At home we couldn't beat them with 1 extra man on the pitch. They have pace in their team, like Cardiff where we lost 3-1 after a 4 game winning run. It is now not in our hands because we will have to go and win their and win out game in hand to take that kind of advantage. They keep winning and beat us at our place then it remains out of our hands. We are behind West Ham and have played the same number of games.

Say Birmingham beat us at home, that'll put us level. Or currently them ahead on GD so they can overtake us.

At the risk of sounding patronising, the definition of 'in our own hands' is that we can guarantee a result with our own performances that, should they be good enough, no-one can do anything about.

Our performances at West Ham, Southampton and Birmingham fall into that category.

Which currently Southampton and West Ham are good enough to occupy unless we(as this is about us) can do something about it. So it is therefore not in our own hands.

[Tommy Youlden's Ears]

http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html

The researchers analyzed the video...

Trouble is, the source (science of soccer online) is by an American blogger...and any fool knows that 85% of US Football blogs are wrong.

[themadstad]

Exactly we have to, so it's for us to do to get there. So not exactly in our hands.

No, that means EXACTLY in out hands

It was in our hands at Wembley last season, was in our hands at home 08/09 both failed. This time though we have to make up the ground, overtake and maintain.

[Ian Royal]

That's all ifs though. At home we couldn't beat them with 1 extra man on the pitch. They have pace in their team, like Cardiff where we lost 3-1 after a 4 game winning run. It is now not in our hands because we will have to go and win their and win out game in hand to take that kind of advantage. They keep winning and beat us at our place then it remains out of our hands. We are behind West Ham and have played the same number of games.

Say Birmingham beat us at home, that'll put us level. Or currently them ahead on GD so they can overtake us.

At the risk of sounding patronising, the definition of 'in our own hands' is that we can guarantee a result with our own performances that, should they be good enough, no-one can do anything about.

Our performances at West Ham, Southampton and Birmingham fall into that category.

Which currently Southampton and West Ham are good enough to occupy unless we(as this is about us) can do something about it. So it is therefore not in our own hands.

You don't seem to understand what you are talking about. You say it's up to us to do it, then say it's not in our hands. That is exactly what in our hands means.

For it not to be in our hands, we'd be relying on someone else to feck up or do us a favour. As it is we're relying on us to do something.

Seriously, it's not hard.

[Ian Royal]

Exactly we have to, so it's for us to do to get there. So not exactly in our hands.

No, that means EXACTLY in out hands

It was in our hands at Wembley last season, was in our hands at home 08/09 both failed. This time though we have to make up the ground, overtake and maintain.

Failing when it's in our hands does not mean something else that's in our hands is not in our hands.

It's in our hands, does not mean the same thing as being in "poll position", or being ahead of everyone else.

Bloody hell.

[themadstad]

What? In our hands so it's in our hands not West Ham and Southampton's? All that have to do is beat us which since they are at home they have the advantage. They are already above us, you could argue it is in either teams' hands but since they have the advantage, why would it be in our hands. Yes so say we win the game in hand but then all they have to do is stop us beating them.