BFTG Bolton

[Ouroboros]

Hal has been my biggest disappointment last season and this.

After those Premiership goals scored at a goal every 182 minutes
I thought he'd be IMMENSE in the Championship.

It's almost as if a statistic taken in isolation didn't provide a sound basis for prediction of future outcomes.

[Hoop Blah]

Very true, possibly a lesson for many with that stat and analysis...

[Angry Shed Sex]

Hal has been my biggest disappointment last season and this.

After those Premiership goals scored at a goal every 182 minutes
I thought he'd be IMMENSE in the Championship.

It's almost as if a statistic taken in isolation didn't provide a sound basis for prediction of future outcomes.

Looking at his arse size stats it proved players with the biggest arses are the most disappointing.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Looking at his arse

Ha, gay

[Snowball]

Hal has been my biggest disappointment last season and this.

After those Premiership goals scored at a goal every 182 minutes
I thought he'd be IMMENSE in the Championship.

It's almost as if a statistic taken in isolation didn't provide a sound basis for prediction of future outcomes.

Can't agree. The move from Premiership to Championship for a player almost always means more goals (more than x 2) and going the other way most commonly means a halving or worse.

Obviously you can never know at the individual level. A player could have a niggling injury, eye problems, health issues, personal problems, or may just have had a purple patch that didn't reflect his innate ability, or be playing in a system that does;t bring out his best.

[Snowball]

Very true, possibly a lesson for many with that stat and analysis...

We had a similar issue with Church who had one very promising season and then
went downhill from there.

But more commonly the stats DO predict.

Like with Shane Long, who I was battered over

(and the 2/1 ratio Champ/Prem holds there too)

[Angry Shed Sex]

Very true, possibly a lesson for many with that stat and analysis...

We had a similar issue with Church who had one very promising season and then
went downhill from there.

But more commonly the stats DO predict.

Like with Shane Long, who I was battered over

(and the 2/1 ratio Champ/Prem holds there too)

So you're saying you got it right one and wrong twice?

That's a great stat.

[Hoop Blah]

Very true, possibly a lesson for many with that stat and analysis...

We had a similar issue with Church who had one very promising season and then
went downhill from there.

But more commonly the stats DO predict.

Like with Shane Long, who I was battered over

(and the 2/1 ratio Champ/Prem holds there too)

Shane Long hasn't really proved anything other than he had one amazing run of form for us. He does a great job at times but apart from that one season he hasn't been a consistent and prolific scorer.

[Angry Shed Sex]

Very true, possibly a lesson for many with that stat and analysis...

We had a similar issue with Church who had one very promising season and then
went downhill from there.

But more commonly the stats DO predict.

Like with Shane Long, who I was battered over

(and the 2/1 ratio Champ/Prem holds there too)

Shane Long hasn't really proved anything other than he had one amazing run of form for us. He does a great job at times but apart from that one season he hasn't been a consistent and prolific scorer.

So you're saying Snowball got it right 0% of the time and wrong 100% of the time?

[Snowball]

Shane Long hasn't really proved anything other than he had one amazing run of form for us. He does a great job at times but apart from that one season he hasn't been a consistent and prolific scorer.

I am on record as saying he would make

A ten goal a season premiership player
or
A twenty goal a season Championship player
or
A thirty goal a season League 1 player

He doesn't have the absolute class to be a regular in many Prem sides so isn't getting 38 x 90 minutes (3420 Minutes)

This season he has 2 goals and 3 assists in 926 minutes = a goal or assist every 185 minutes. He also has a League Cup goal and an FA Cup goal= 2 goals in 481

Last season he had 7 goals and 2 assists in 2236 minutes = a goal or assist every 248 minutes

In season 12-13 he got 8 goals and 5 assists, again in less than 2/3 of the possible minutes (2,150) = g or a every 166 minutes. He also got 3 cup goals. That's 11 goals and 5 assists in 2344 minutes = a goal or assist every 127 minutes

In season 11-12 he got 8 Prem goals and 1 assist in 2186 minutes, a g/a every 243 minutes

In his last full season for us he got

23 Goals 19 Assists in 4041 minutes = a goal every 176 minutes, a goal or assist every 096 minutes (League & PO games)
02 Goals 01 Assists in 0371 minutes = a goal every 185 minutes, a goal or assist every 124 minutes (cups)

I think my forecast was damn accurate (I also said if he played most games)

He clearly made it as a 20-Goal Championship player and only missed out on 10 Premiership goals a season because he has played just over 2000 minutes each season instead of the full 3420 possible (excluding injury time)

In terms of goal-scoring only

2 in 0926
7 in 2236
8 in 2150
8 in 2186

25 Premiership Goals in 7498 minutes a goal every 299 minutes.

If he played 3400 minutes that would translate to 11.37 goals (yeah, yeah...)

That vindicates me, IMO


PS It again shows the Prem-Scoring v Championship scoring ratio

[Snowball]

is

7 Prem goals
8 Prem goals
8 Prem goals

in 3 consecutive Premiership seasons playing only 2/3 of the possible minutes INCONSISTENT?

and he gets a fair few assists.

[Angry Shed Sex]

How many of those were as a substitute Snowers and what skew would you put on the fact that coming on later in a game gives you an advantage over a tiring defence as an attacker?

[Snowball]

How many of those were as a substitute Snowers and what skew would you put on the fact that coming on later in a game gives you an advantage over a tiring defence as an attacker?

What does that have to do with anything?

Hoop Blah was saying he wasn't a consistent scorer, not "He wasn't a consistent scorer when starting"

An 8+ goal a season premiership scorer is a valuable asset. Hence being sold 3 times for a total of almost 20 Million

[Sanguine]

Nice statistical dodge, but in my view the statement that someone has it in them 'to be a 10 goal a season Premier League player' in itself implies that they will get sufficient game time in which to score those goals. To say 'well if he'd played more he'd have scored them' doesn't really follow. If he was better, he'd play more.

[Snowball]

Nice statistical dodge, but in my view the statement that someone has it in them 'to be a 10 goal a season Premier League player' in itself implies that they will get sufficient game time in which to score those goals. To say 'well if he'd played more he'd have scored them' doesn't really follow. If he was better, he'd play more.

You may think that. I disagree.

Also he's had a couple of bad injuries.

Didn't he get wiped out by a horror tackle in his first season?

[Snowball]

Premier League 168 30 14 15 - - 9.103'


A goal every 303 minutes played (1 every 3.3 games)

A goal or assist every 207 minutes (1 every 2.5 games)

That's a very solid, (and consistent) record

[Snowball]

Kevin Doyle v Shane Long

Premier League 164 37 Goals 20 Assists - - 12.937 Minutes Kevin Doyle
Premier League 168 30 Goals 14 Assists - - 09.103 Minutes Shane Long

Premier League 350 Minutes per Goal Doyle
Premier League 303 Minutes per Goal Long

Premier League 227 Minutes per Goal or Assist Doyle
Premier League 206 Minutes per Goal or Assist Long

[Hoop Blah]

Long scored 20 goals in one season just once. Before that one season he scored 9 and 6 goals in the Championship.

Since then he's scored 8, 8, 7 and so far 2 in Premier League.

I don't see that as proving anything to be honest. He remains a hardworking and useful player yes, and great at diving for penalties, plus he's improved his all-round game massively since he cemented a place in our side. I don't think he's proved he's the goalscorer you suggested the stats implied though.

[Maguire]

I am on record as saying he would make

A ten goal a season premiership player

This season he has 2 goals
Last season he had 7 goals
In season 12-13 he got 8 goals
In season 11-12 he got 8 Prem goals

[Angry Shed Sex]

I am on record as saying he would make

A ten goal a season premiership player

This season he has 2 goals
Last season he had 7 goals
In season 12-13 he got 8 goals
In season 11-12 he got 8 Prem goals

I'm going to print that out and hang it on my wall.