THE BETTING THREAD

[double d]

There is no such thing as becoming a good better, You cannot become good at something that is a game of chance (unless you fiddle the system in a way nobody can work out).

Professional betters are people who wager thousands per day, not turning 100 into 1000. What you are saying does make sense but to me you may as well play the stock market, it is the same thing essentially. Or put money in the bank and get interest on it.

[Sanguine]

Good betting is all about finding value and assessing risk, isn't it?

Correct. So why did you back Pakistan in the 2nd Test 'because they won the 1st Test'? England's record at Old Trafford is excellent.
How much do you know about the AFL? Quite a lot I assume, to have bet on the winners of the league.
When most independent analyses have Clinton to win the Presidency, why did you back Trump?

Not questioning your bets so much as trying to get you to question your decisions.

And agreed with doubled, you can't become a 'good' gambler on a results basis. Leicester City should show you that. People who backed Manchester City to win the league last season are not 'bad' gamblers.

I noticed that in the Iran pro league. In the first round of matches. 4 games ended in a draw and the other 4 games were decided by a single goal. In the second round of matches. 6 games ended in a draw and 2 games were decided by a single goal. Therefore, surely there is good value to bet on draws in that league? Does that make sense?

Not really. What is the longer term trend? You are basing a betting strategy on 16 games.

But let's take your strategy at face value. What calculations have you made to support your strategy? What the average draw odds in the league. How many games have to finish in a draw for those odds to represent value?

[Top Flight]

Yeah, you're right double d.

But, if you can become good at pricing risk then you have a chance to make good money on the markets. Is that not true?

For example, Genome made a good point that at 8 to 1, Fulham look a good bet for relegation. He believes the chance of Fulham dropping down this season is greater than 8 to 1. I think I would agree with that. So surely backing Fulham for the drop at 8 to 1 makes sense? In these circumstances a team that struggled last year and have just sold the goals that kept them above the line will go down half the time?

Hasn't he just spotted some value there?

(This was posted before I read Sanguine's response)

[Top Flight]

Good betting is all about finding value and assessing risk, isn't it?

Correct. So why did you back Pakistan in the 2nd Test 'because they won the 1st Test'? England's record at Old Trafford is excellent.
How much do you know about the AFL? Quite a lot I assume, to have bet on the winners of the league.
When most independent analyses have Clinton to win the Presidency, why did you back Trump?

Not questioning your bets so much as trying to get you to question your decisions.

And agreed with doubled, you can't become a 'good' gambler on a results basis. Leicester City should show you that. People who backed Manchester City to win the league last season are not 'bad' gamblers.

I noticed that in the Iran pro league. In the first round of matches. 4 games ended in a draw and the other 4 games were decided by a single goal. In the second round of matches. 6 games ended in a draw and 2 games were decided by a single goal. Therefore, surely there is good value to bet on draws in that league? Does that make sense?

Not really. What is the longer term trend? You are basing a betting strategy on 16 games.

But let's take your strategy at face value. What calculations have you made to support your strategy? What the average draw odds in the league. How many games have to finish in a draw for those odds to represent value?

You're absolutely right Sanguine. I have been over betting and making numerous poor selections. I have to take a lot more care about these selections and research more thoroughly. Can we make this a forum for discussing and analysing selections? I will certainly calm down and not make any more unresearched selections.

[Sanguine]

Yep. I don't know about half the time, but it looks a decent bet if indeed you think Fulham will struggle. Those odds have been boosted of course by a couple of decent signings and an unbeaten run during pre-season. Did you check that out?

8/1 means that the bet is value if there is more than 11% chance of it occurring (you need to win the bet 1 time out of 9 at level stakes to break even). If you think there is a greater than 11% chance of Fulham going down, it is a value bet.

And not to push the point too much - but Genome spotted that, not you. You backed Trump to win the Presidency.

doubled's advice to close your accounts was friendly.

[Sanguine]

And I'll get off your back after this post, but don't bet on everything. I got in that sort of rut at uni, my BetFair account would always have £100 in it (student LOLoan) and I'd be coming in from nights out and betting on US horse racing or tennis in the Far East for no reason other than it was live sport.

You are still wittering on about the Iran Pro League. You still don't know anything about it.

[double d]

At the end of the day, betting is about fun. You cannot make money in it (or enough to live on) unless you have enough money (talking tens of thousands) to start with, and you wager massive stakes. Think about professional poker players, who have to pay tens of thousands to just enter competitions. You (and not just saying you personally but 98% of people who bet) will never make enough to be classes as "good". I have won a fair bit more then I have staked, but mostly through luck. I won 7 bets all of last season (talking about ones that are worth anything, not small stakes) and won just a bit over what In put in.

Betting is not a way to make any money at all.

[genome]

Fulham look a great shout at 8/1 to be relegated on bet365.

Lost both McCormack and Dembele (who scored 40 of their 66 league goals last season) and even then they still struggled last year.

Yes, I think you might be right on that one. Who's their manager these days?

Jokanovic I think.

[Top Flight]

And I'll get off your back after this post, but don't bet on everything. I got in that sort of rut at uni, my BetFair account would always have £100 in it (student LOLoan) and I'd be coming in from nights out and betting on US horse racing or tennis in the Far East for no reason other than it was live sport.

You are still wittering on about the Iran Pro League. You still don't know anything about it.

But, I feel like I could make money on that league if I learn about it and become knowledgeable on it.

I find it very difficult to bet on the championship even though it's the league I know the best. I looked at the opening week of fixtures in the championship and literally anything could happen. Any set of permutations are possible.

We might beat Preston, they might beat us or it could be a draw. It is so evenly balanced, I haven't got a clue. Every single game looks like that. What about Forest v Burton? Anything could happen there as well. It's a local derby so that will add something to the occasion. Burton have just come up and will be looking to prove themselves. Literally, any result is possible in that fixture.
There is Birmingham V Cardiff. Anyone have any idea how that might turn out? Ipswich V Barnsley. A lot of people have tipped Barnsley for the drop this season but they have some very good players. Hammil, Winnall, Hourihane are all talented and they have stability, continuity, form, well organised. Why should they go down? They will stay up for me. I don't think the prices offered by the bookies give any sort of value in the Championship or the Premiership.

[Sanguine]

Of course those games look like that - it's the first week of the season. Give it a few weeks to settle down, get a feel for who is performing, where, who is scoring, who isn't, who has the best defence, and so on. Match betting in the first few weeks of the season is a mug's game.

[Top Flight]

At the end of the day, betting is about fun. You cannot make money in it (or enough to live on) unless you have enough money (talking tens of thousands) to start with, and you wager massive stakes. Think about professional poker players, who have to pay tens of thousands to just enter competitions. You (and not just saying you personally but 98% of people who bet) will never make enough to be classes as "good". I have won a fair bit more then I have staked, but mostly through luck. I won 7 bets all of last season (talking about ones that are worth anything, not small stakes) and won just a bit over what In put in.

Betting is not a way to make any money at all.

I'm not looking to make a living. It is just for fun. I want to turn £100 into a £1000 over the course of the whole season and then withdraw. It is just a target to see if I can achieve it. Obviously I can't live on £1000 for a whole year.

In the past, I have managed to turn a small stake into a lot of money and then blown the lot through pure stupidity, carelessness, recklessness which I'm sure you can believe because I have displayed plenty of stupidity across these forums for years now.

I need to get better with my risk/money management and cleverer with my selections.

I really want to stay disciplined this season and stick to some good rules to eradicate my stupidity.
I managed to recover my betfair position by keeping calm and not chasing losses. In the past, I would have gone to the casino and tried to recover my position by going red or black and then blown my account. Now I'm more patient and won't chase my losses. But, I tend to start over betting once I am making money. I bet carefully to begin with, make some money and then I start betting on stuff I don't know anything about and my account drops back again. I just need to stay calm all the time. I have to discipline myself to do that.

[Top Flight]

Of course those games look like that - it's the first week of the season. Give it a few weeks to settle down, get a feel for who is performing, where, who is scoring, who isn't, who has the best defence, and so on. Match betting in the first few weeks of the season is a mug's game.

I'm going to take your advice and not bet on any games this weekend. I have already backed Newcastle to win at Fulham on Friday night but that will be the only betting position I take for the time being.

I have given myself the whole season to go from £100 to £1000, so I may as well take my time, bet carefully and enjoy the matches.

I am banning myself from bets for the time being. But maybe Genomes Fulham selection is a good idea for a tenner perhaps.

[Hendo]

Just a bit at the last few pages. I would echo double d's sentiments in that, its time to close the accounts. If you don't want to do that, limit yourself to markets you have at least some knowledge on. We all make bets when tipsy/drunk from time to time (personally mine was Premier League Darts 4-fold, I did it once when having a few beers after work, forgot about it but won, not done it since because it can really go anyway, even MVG loses from time to time).

Your record on cricket is laughable. England were always going to struggle against Pakistan first up, complacency after beating Sri Lanka so easily was always going to be a factor, and their recent record against Pakistan isn't great, especially with Amir coming back into the team. But did you really think they would rest on their laurels and lay down and take that again at Old Trafford? With Jimmy and Stokes returning? Not been watching this England too much, have you? I would stop betting on cricket altogether.

For me, betting is about having a bit of fun at the weekends. I know I can afford a £5 5/6-fold a weekend so I do it, if I lose so what, if I win, great. I would never try to keep track of what I was winning though or try to aim for a target amount as you will always chase that amount and take more risks getting to that amount. Trying to turn £100 to £1,000 is a nice idea, but is it really worth it?

[Top Flight]

Your record on cricket is laughable.

I know

[Sanguine]

So after advising TF not to bet at the start of the season, I'm going to have a medium sized nibble tonight at Craven Cottage - Fulham are unbeaten in pre-season and there are some good 'feels' around the place, a team including new signings that have gelled pretty quickly and moved on from the loss of Dembele and McCormack (and the latter played no part in their friendly games). Newcastle likely to have two debutants at centre-back and will be without Winjaldum (sold) and Sissoko (on his way).

Lay Newcastle at Evens is probably the best value bet, so I'll probably end up backing Fulham at an over-priced 3/1 at home to catch Newcastle cold in front of a sell out crowd and under the floodlights.

Watch Newcastle now gallop to a 5-0 win.

[Top Flight]

Interesting Sanguine. You make a good case there to lay off the Geordies.

I had already backed Newcastle at even money before you advised me to stop betting. I have a tenner on at evens.

My current position still stands at:

Bet365: £111
Betfair: £92

The target for the season is £1000 in each account.

If Newcastle win, my bet365 will increase to £131. If not then it stays the same.

Anyone else have any selections in mind for this weekends fixtures?

[double d]

Interesting Sanguine. You make a good case there to lay off the Geordies.

I had already backed Newcastle at even money before you advised me to stop betting. I have a tenner on at evens.

My current position still stands at:

Bet365: £111
Betfair: £92

The target for the season is £1000 in each account.

If Newcastle win, my bet365 will increase to £131. If not then it stays the same.

Anyone else have any selections in mind for this weekends fixtures?

No point betting. I think it has been mentioned 3 or 4 times, but doing bets within the 4 weeks Is pointless. Anything could happen in any game this weekend. Give it a few weekends and then start.

Friendly advice..... I would take the money and run, you are over your deposit by £3. Before long I think you may be down to £0.

[double d]

First bet if the season going well i see Top Flight..... like i said take the money and run. Fwiw i broke my own rule and put ten on Fulham

[Top Flight]

First bet if the season going well i see Top Flight..... like i said take the money and run. Fwiw i broke my own rule and put ten on Fulham

It's ok. Keep calm and carry on.

Newcastle don't look the real deal just yet. They don't have enough presence up front. And I don't know why Shelvey didn't start.

[exileinleeds]

So after advising TF not to bet at the start of the season, I'm going to have a medium sized nibble tonight at Craven Cottage - Fulham are unbeaten in pre-season and there are some good 'feels' around the place, a team including new signings that have gelled pretty quickly and moved on from the loss of Dembele and McCormack (and the latter played no part in their friendly games). Newcastle likely to have two debutants at centre-back and will be without Winjaldum (sold) and Sissoko (on his way).

Lay Newcastle at Evens is probably the best value bet, so I'll probably end up backing Fulham at an over-priced 3/1 at home to catch Newcastle cold in front of a sell out crowd and under the floodlights.

Watch Newcastle now gallop to a 5-0 win.

Yeah Yeah, if I knew how to a) do a screen shot, b) was in any way reasonably IT literate I would be able to PROVE that having read the above post, I took the whole £5.60 odd number in my B365 account and stuck it on a Fulham win @3/1 which netted a magnificent £22.40

I am very much a 'social' gambler- I have £100 in my a/c on day 1- if I lose that, it is season over....experience teaches, that when my account gets to £160/80 ish, I will remove my initial £100 and enjoy the rest of the season as it develops...and when I can take a lump of about £150 ish, leaving me with a minimum of about £70, then I take it and buy something....I don't just piss it up the wall....last season bought me an original watercolour, a cocktail set, a nice ring, a Kindle a Christmas party, new GHD straighteners....

One thing I do note is that when there is more money in my account, I am tempted to make bigger bets....and losses.

I tend to only bet on Championship (the only league I care about)- L1 &2 perhaps also, later in the season. One thing I have found, is that draws are often better value than win/loss for most teams....and pretty good for taking Cash Out.