Sanguine Why did you back Dortmund against Bayern?
Just about to say that. Surely that is just throwing money away.
THE BETTING THREAD
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double d
Just about to say that. Surely that is just throwing money away.
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Pepe the Horseman
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Top FlightSanguine Why did you back Dortmund against Bayern?
I probably shouldn't have bet against Bayern. Tell me what I did wrong here.
You bet against Bayern.
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Top Flight
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In the Championship, these are the teams that look like they might be a good shout from a betting perspective.
To back / lay off their opponents
QPR
Bristol City
Fulham
These teams have started strong and look in good form. Bristol carrying on from last season. Rangers continuing to improve under their impressive manager Hasselbaink and Fulham a surprisingly good start having sold their top strikers. Seems there is a positive feeling around the cottage at the moment. Being three unfancied sides, it should be possible to get good value from the bookies on these teams.
Also Norwich and Brighton have started well. Brighton look a real force this season and were very impressive on Friday night. Norwich possess quality and experience and should regularly get good results at this level. These two teams being among the favourites probably won't get the best price from the bookies but should deliver the right results consistently.
Teams to lay off as they won't win very often.
Blackburn
Leeds
Burton
These three look sh*te. Lay them off most of the time and we should be quids in.
Also Newcastle and Villa. So far, not so good. Two favourites for promotion finding life tough. Maybe these teams are priced too short and are simply not as good as their backers think. Possible chance to find value laying off the Villa and Newcastle?
What do my fellow nobbers think about the above analysis?
In League One, the teams to watch I think are the following:
To back / lay off their opponents
MK Dons
Millwall
Gillingham
Bolton
Milwall look impressive under hero Neil Harris. Seems to be a lot of optimism at the Den at the moment. Laying off their opponents could be a way to make money this season. MK Dons know League One and know how to get out of it. They have a long serving manager and have got off to a good start. Their record signing hit the ground running with two well taken goals on Saturday. I think the lions and dons could be a good shout from a betting point of view this year. Another side to watch is Bolton. Under the guidance of Parky they have started the season in fine fettle. Should be another team where there is money to be made. Gillingham have been strong in League One for a couple of years now. Nothing seems to have changed on that front.
To lay off
Charlton
The slide continues, confidence is low, the fans are p*ssed, the players are down. Another relegation staring them in the face.
These are the teams I have particularly noticed so far in the Champ and League One that could provide good betting opportunities.
To back / lay off their opponents
QPR
Bristol City
Fulham
These teams have started strong and look in good form. Bristol carrying on from last season. Rangers continuing to improve under their impressive manager Hasselbaink and Fulham a surprisingly good start having sold their top strikers. Seems there is a positive feeling around the cottage at the moment. Being three unfancied sides, it should be possible to get good value from the bookies on these teams.
Also Norwich and Brighton have started well. Brighton look a real force this season and were very impressive on Friday night. Norwich possess quality and experience and should regularly get good results at this level. These two teams being among the favourites probably won't get the best price from the bookies but should deliver the right results consistently.
Teams to lay off as they won't win very often.
Blackburn
Leeds
Burton
These three look sh*te. Lay them off most of the time and we should be quids in.
Also Newcastle and Villa. So far, not so good. Two favourites for promotion finding life tough. Maybe these teams are priced too short and are simply not as good as their backers think. Possible chance to find value laying off the Villa and Newcastle?
What do my fellow nobbers think about the above analysis?
In League One, the teams to watch I think are the following:
To back / lay off their opponents
MK Dons
Millwall
Gillingham
Bolton
Milwall look impressive under hero Neil Harris. Seems to be a lot of optimism at the Den at the moment. Laying off their opponents could be a way to make money this season. MK Dons know League One and know how to get out of it. They have a long serving manager and have got off to a good start. Their record signing hit the ground running with two well taken goals on Saturday. I think the lions and dons could be a good shout from a betting point of view this year. Another side to watch is Bolton. Under the guidance of Parky they have started the season in fine fettle. Should be another team where there is money to be made. Gillingham have been strong in League One for a couple of years now. Nothing seems to have changed on that front.
To lay off
Charlton
The slide continues, confidence is low, the fans are p*ssed, the players are down. Another relegation staring them in the face.
These are the teams I have particularly noticed so far in the Champ and League One that could provide good betting opportunities.
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Top Flight
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Pepe the HorsemanTop FlightSanguine Why did you back Dortmund against Bayern?
I probably shouldn't have bet against Bayern. Tell me what I did wrong here.
You bet against Bayern.
I know, stupid really. I need to set tough rules.
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Brosef Stalin
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LWJLWJ Ipswich/Birmingham/Fulham treble pays 37/1 which IMO is well overpriced, surely??
Wolves v Ipswich, Wigan v Birminham, Leeds v Fulham
In fact the more I've thought about it the more it represents value (calling brosef etc etc)
I nearly bit on the first post
Last edited by Brosef Stalin on 15 Aug 2016 11:54, edited 2 times in total.
Don’t want you to feel you’re getting a hard time here – just interested in your thought process. You staked £18 to win £10 based on a snippet of Owen Hargeaves’ thoughts. That’s where you went wrong. You wanted to bet so much you threw £18 on a game you hadn’t picked up until half time.
On your analysis of the Championship – I wouldn’t be laying off Blackburn, Leeds and Burton if you don’t think they’ll win very often. You’re better off backing the teams they are playing. Lay Blackburn at longer odds and you’ll need to increase your stake/risk to make a decent return. Laying an outsider doesn’t give you much wiggle room in-play either, unless the result is going against you.
In fact, your new obsession seems to be laying teams. But your focus is wrong – lay teams that look under-priced relative to their opponents. As has been explained before, the nominal odds on their own are not important. If Villa are 1.80 and you think they should be 2.20, there’s your value, and bet accordingly. But base that analysis on the specific game they are playing, not your generalistic summary above.
On your analysis of the Championship – I wouldn’t be laying off Blackburn, Leeds and Burton if you don’t think they’ll win very often. You’re better off backing the teams they are playing. Lay Blackburn at longer odds and you’ll need to increase your stake/risk to make a decent return. Laying an outsider doesn’t give you much wiggle room in-play either, unless the result is going against you.
In fact, your new obsession seems to be laying teams. But your focus is wrong – lay teams that look under-priced relative to their opponents. As has been explained before, the nominal odds on their own are not important. If Villa are 1.80 and you think they should be 2.20, there’s your value, and bet accordingly. But base that analysis on the specific game they are playing, not your generalistic summary above.
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Top Flight
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Don't worry. I want to be criticized. I want to be given a tough time. That's the best way for me to learn and improve my betting.
I really appreciate your feedback and advise. Thank you!
I really appreciate your feedback and advise. Thank you!
TF,
Bristol City apparently had very little of the game at Burton but came away with the win-don't get carried away.
Don't trust Fulham.
I backed Brighton at the start at 12/1-they looked good on Friday after the first 10 minutes and have good attacking options.
They do rely a bit too much on Lewis Dunk at the back and currently have defenders out injured so if they pick up points now it could augur well for the season ahead.
Just two little tips on betting-don't back teams that you dislike and don't back teams at odds-on away from home (over a season not enough of them win to make it worthwhile and obviously the odds are short so you don't win much for the risk taken).
Bristol City apparently had very little of the game at Burton but came away with the win-don't get carried away.
Don't trust Fulham.
I backed Brighton at the start at 12/1-they looked good on Friday after the first 10 minutes and have good attacking options.
They do rely a bit too much on Lewis Dunk at the back and currently have defenders out injured so if they pick up points now it could augur well for the season ahead.
Just two little tips on betting-don't back teams that you dislike and don't back teams at odds-on away from home (over a season not enough of them win to make it worthwhile and obviously the odds are short so you don't win much for the risk taken).
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exileinleeds
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Do find this discussion about making money on betting quite interesting- given what OH does....
Personally, I start the season with £100 in my account, when it is gone, it's gone. When/if it gets to about £170 I take out my original £100 and bet with their money (mostly Champ/L1/Prem). I take out of my account lumps of £150/£200 when possible and buy something. Last season I think I took out about £1k.
About a year ago OH wrote a little algorithm which queries the database of a well known gaming company....it is set to trigger a 0.01 'bet' anytime it finds an anomaly or 'good value' between odds offered ....the 'account' is currently at £10k profit.
Obviously, he is not allowed to have a gaming account with them (nor am I come to that)....and it might be considered unethical for him to have those alerts sent to say, my phone, for me to bet with other companies....
It is also interesting how they deal with 'VIP's'- successful gamblers.....there is one well known bloke here (English iirc), 'lives' here (possibly for tax purposes)- who bets extremely large amounts, and is often quite successful. One casino had to issue a profits warning after he won £3m....it is all about the offers and inducements they offer....
Personally, I start the season with £100 in my account, when it is gone, it's gone. When/if it gets to about £170 I take out my original £100 and bet with their money (mostly Champ/L1/Prem). I take out of my account lumps of £150/£200 when possible and buy something. Last season I think I took out about £1k.
About a year ago OH wrote a little algorithm which queries the database of a well known gaming company....it is set to trigger a 0.01 'bet' anytime it finds an anomaly or 'good value' between odds offered ....the 'account' is currently at £10k profit.
Obviously, he is not allowed to have a gaming account with them (nor am I come to that)....and it might be considered unethical for him to have those alerts sent to say, my phone, for me to bet with other companies....
It is also interesting how they deal with 'VIP's'- successful gamblers.....there is one well known bloke here (English iirc), 'lives' here (possibly for tax purposes)- who bets extremely large amounts, and is often quite successful. One casino had to issue a profits warning after he won £3m....it is all about the offers and inducements they offer....
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Top Flight
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exileinleeds Do find this discussion about making money on betting quite interesting- given what OH does....
Personally, I start the season with £100 in my account, when it is gone, it's gone. When/if it gets to about £170 I take out my original £100 and bet with their money (mostly Champ/L1/Prem). I take out of my account lumps of £150/£200 when possible and buy something. Last season I think I took out about £1k.
About a year ago OH wrote a little algorithm which queries the database of a well known gaming company....it is set to trigger a 0.01 'bet' anytime it finds an anomaly or 'good value' between odds offered ....the 'account' is currently at £10k profit.
Obviously, he is not allowed to have a gaming account with them (nor am I come to that)....and it might be considered unethical for him to have those alerts sent to say, my phone, for me to bet with other companies....
It is also interesting how they deal with 'VIP's'- successful gamblers.....there is one well known bloke here (English iirc), 'lives' here (possibly for tax purposes)- who bets extremely large amounts, and is often quite successful. One casino had to issue a profits warning after he won £3m....it is all about the offers and inducements they offer....
Who is OH?
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double d
Top Flightexileinleeds Do find this discussion about making money on betting quite interesting- given what OH does....
Personally, I start the season with £100 in my account, when it is gone, it's gone. When/if it gets to about £170 I take out my original £100 and bet with their money (mostly Champ/L1/Prem). I take out of my account lumps of £150/£200 when possible and buy something. Last season I think I took out about £1k.
About a year ago OH wrote a little algorithm which queries the database of a well known gaming company....it is set to trigger a 0.01 'bet' anytime it finds an anomaly or 'good value' between odds offered ....the 'account' is currently at £10k profit.
Obviously, he is not allowed to have a gaming account with them (nor am I come to that)....and it might be considered unethical for him to have those alerts sent to say, my phone, for me to bet with other companies....
It is also interesting how they deal with 'VIP's'- successful gamblers.....there is one well known bloke here (English iirc), 'lives' here (possibly for tax purposes)- who bets extremely large amounts, and is often quite successful. One casino had to issue a profits warning after he won £3m....it is all about the offers and inducements they offer....
Who is OH?
........ other half
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Top Flight
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BR2 TF,
Bristol City apparently had very little of the game at Burton but came away with the win-don't get carried away.
Don't trust Fulham.
I backed Brighton at the start at 12/1-they looked good on Friday after the first 10 minutes and have good attacking options.
They do rely a bit too much on Lewis Dunk at the back and currently have defenders out injured so if they pick up points now it could augur well for the season ahead.
Just two little tips on betting-don't back teams that you dislike and don't back teams at odds-on away from home (over a season not enough of them win to make it worthwhile and obviously the odds are short so you don't win much for the risk taken).
Thanks for the tips.
Why can't I back teams that I dislike? If they lose, I will end up really hating them. If they win, then I might actually start liking them. I won't back Swindon or Oxford then.
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Top Flight
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Anyone planning a bet on tonights game?
Chelsea V West Ham
Chelsea V West Ham
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Top Flight
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Looking at the betfair exchange odds at the moment.
Chelsea 1.57
Draw 4.5
West Ham 7
I think this game will go in Chelsea's favour or it will be a draw but I don't trust Chelsea enough to win this opener at such a short price of 1.57.
I won't be laying West Ham off at 7s because with some talented players that they have and this being the opening day when teams are not always at the races they could pull off a surprise victory.
I will either lay off this game or put a fiver on the draw. What do the rest of you think about this one? Will you bet and how will you bet?
Chelsea 1.57
Draw 4.5
West Ham 7
I think this game will go in Chelsea's favour or it will be a draw but I don't trust Chelsea enough to win this opener at such a short price of 1.57.
I won't be laying West Ham off at 7s because with some talented players that they have and this being the opening day when teams are not always at the races they could pull off a surprise victory.
I will either lay off this game or put a fiver on the draw. What do the rest of you think about this one? Will you bet and how will you bet?
1st game of the season for both teams. Won't bet. There is no need to bet on every game.
I'm sure this has been said somewhere before.....
I'm sure this has been said somewhere before.....
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Top Flight
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You're right. Unfortunately I have now done it.
Alan Brazil this morning said on talksport that he thought 3.5 to 1 for the draw was good value.
I have just put a small fiver on the draw. I don't want to risk more than that on a very difficult to predict game.
Alan Brazil this morning said on talksport that he thought 3.5 to 1 for the draw was good value.
I have just put a small fiver on the draw. I don't want to risk more than that on a very difficult to predict game.
I just don't get this, if its a hard to predict game, why bet on it?
Plus there is no such thing as a small fiver. A fiver is a fiver, FACT.
I honestly think you probably need to stop or calm it down a bit. Not every game needs a bet.
Plus there is no such thing as a small fiver. A fiver is a fiver, FACT.
I honestly think you probably need to stop or calm it down a bit. Not every game needs a bet.
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Victor Meldrew
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Top Flight Anyone planning a bet on tonights game?
Chelsea V West Ham
With Andy Carroll up against John Terry, Costa playing and Noble I have backed the bookings at 4/6 over 4.5.
Also with Carroll liable to cause others to spill blood I might be tempted by Sporting Index's market on added time.
Not too concerned about the actual football.
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Brosef Stalin
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exileinleeds About a year ago OH wrote a little algorithm which queries the database of a well known gaming company....it is set to trigger a 0.01 'bet' anytime it finds an anomaly or 'good value' between odds offered ....the 'account' is currently at £10k profit.
Obviously, he is not allowed to have a gaming account with them (nor am I come to that)....and it might be considered unethical for him to have those alerts sent to say, my phone, for me to bet with other companies....
.
Sounds like bollox to me.
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Top Flight
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That's what I was thinking. But I didn't want to say it.
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