THE BETTING THREAD

[Top Flight]

There are no games in the Championship that I like the look of this evening. The only team I strongly fancy to win tonight is Brighton. But at 1.47 on Betfair, it's not worth the risk.

Villa should be a good bet at home tonight against Huddersfield. But there is a high chance that after thrashing Rotherham over the weekend and relieving some of the pressure the Villains were under, they may just revert to type and put in another underwhelming performance against Huddersfield to leave their fans frustrated again.

I will now look at League One to see if there is any value to be found there.

[Top Flight]

In League One, laying off Charlton at home at 2.06 against Shrewsbury might be an idea.

Shrewsbury might revel in the opportunity to play at a famous stadium (The Valley) against a recent-ish premier league side. Charlton are in total disarray and have started the season badly.

Will they buck up their ideas and have a right good go tonight? I don't think so somehow. I think they might dissapoint again.

[jd82]

There are no games in the Championship that I like the look of this evening. The only team I strongly fancy to win tonight is Brighton. But at 1.47 on Betfair, it's not worth the risk.

Explain your logic here TF, surely if you strongly fancy them to win, 1.47 is great value? What odds would represent a good risk on a team you strongly fancy to win?

[Top Flight]

I think that's going to be my bet for tonight. I will lay off Charlton Athletic.

Shrewsbury lost against a possible automatic promotion winning side on the opening day when they sunk to a 1-0 loss at home to the MK Dons. On Saturday they grabbed a very encouraging point at the Ricoh Arena against a side that should do well in League One this season in Coventry City.

Tonight, after a dissapointing start for a decent League One side, I think they'll revel in the occassion at the Valley, smell blood, sense an opportunity to heap more misery on Charlton and will edge the game either winning it or settling for a point.

I can't see Charlton coming out and battering the Shrews tonight.

[Top Flight]

There are no games in the Championship that I like the look of this evening. The only team I strongly fancy to win tonight is Brighton. But at 1.47 on Betfair, it's not worth the risk.

Explain your logic here TF, surely if you strongly fancy them to win, 1.47 is great value? What odds would represent a good risk on a team you strongly fancy to win?

I guess so. Maybe that will be my other bet for tonight. You've convinced me.

[Sanguine]

Tonight, after a dissapointing start for a decent League One side

They came 20th last season.

Good luck!

[jd82]

There are no games in the Championship that I like the look of this evening. The only team I strongly fancy to win tonight is Brighton. But at 1.47 on Betfair, it's not worth the risk.

Explain your logic here TF, surely if you strongly fancy them to win, 1.47 is great value? What odds would represent a good risk on a team you strongly fancy to win?

I guess so. Maybe that will be my other bet for tonight. You've convinced me.

I really think you need to take a step back.. I didn't convince you of anything, I asked a question and you were so desperate to lay some money down you took it as positive reinforcement of whatever strategy you're running with... You seem to have ignored every piece of advice you've been given, and when people have tried to delve a little deeper into your methodology you've ignored them..

Best of luck pal, you'll be adding more money to the account come the end of august at this rate.

[Top Flight]

Tonight, after a dissapointing start for a decent League One side

They came 20th last season.

Good luck!

Yeah, I just had a look...

I am having second thoughts now. I think I will leave that one alone.

[Top Flight]

Explain your logic here TF, surely if you strongly fancy them to win, 1.47 is great value? What odds would represent a good risk on a team you strongly fancy to win?

I guess so. Maybe that will be my other bet for tonight. You've convinced me.

I really think you need to take a step back.. I didn't convince you of anything, I asked a question and you were so desperate to lay some money down you took it as positive reinforcement of whatever strategy you're running with... You seem to have ignored every piece of advice you've been given, and when people have tried to delve a little deeper into your methodology you've ignored them..

Best of luck pal, you'll be adding more money to the account come the end of august at this rate.

I haven't placed any bets yet. I am still analysing. I am listening to everything that everyone is saying. I haven't ignored any advice.
So what do you think about the Brighton game? I do think Brighton will win. Is 1.47 a decent price? Perhaps it is. I think Brighton will smash Rotherham the same way they smashed Forest. It's got to be a home banker hasn't it? Maybe 1.47 isn't too short. They will win.

[Top Flight]

Millwall seem to be getting a lot of backing this season in the betting markets I mean.

Again, this time away to Peterborough, they are favourites to get an away win. They didn't manage it on Saturday away to the MK Dons.

Why are they so fancied to manage it tonight? What is so special about Millwall this year?

[Sanguine]

Millwall seem to be getting a lot of backing this season in the betting markets I mean.

What do you mean?

And remember that advice - that it's an unpredictable bun fight at the start of the season and don't pile in?

You're trying to find trends that don't exist yet, and reasoning that hasn't been reasoned. Millwall are favourites to win away at Peterborough having started the season well. That's all. If you like the look of it, dive in, but imho just better than Evens on an away win isn't a terrific bet.

[Brosef Stalin]

Do you mean arbitrage? To be clear, i don't doubt you could be querying the database or
have made 10 grand (all very possible). Just the way you're explaining it sounded a bit bollox
(terrible use of th english language^^^)

This is quite a common thing. You either scrape the prices or use xml/json feeds provided
by bookmakers and look for an overound over 100%. You get profiled double quick and limited.

[Top Flight]

Millwall seem to be getting a lot of backing this season in the betting markets I mean.

What do you mean?

They're away to Peterborough and they are the favourites to get the win at 2.24.
On Saturday I layed Millwall off at 2.5 away to the MK Dons. Again they were favourites at MK Dons and the Dons have just come down from the Championship with a decent side for this level. I was surprised that Millwall were more fancied to win at stadium MK than the Dons.

Millwall are favourites in every game, home and away and even against strong sides away from home. Are Millwall really that good?

[Sanguine]

Because its early in the season? Who knows? Who cares?
How much do you want to bet on Millwall?

Something you need to bear in mind when you are thinking about betting is that there is almost perfect information in the market. You can't trick the bookies or your fellow punters. You don't generally know something that they don't. If you don't know why Millwall are favourites (and I don't), then you certainly shouldn't be betting on them.

[Top Flight]

Because its early in the season? Who knows? Who cares?
How much do you want to bet on Millwall?

Something you need to bear in mind when you are thinking about betting is that there is almost perfect information in the market. You can't trick the bookies or your fellow punters. You don't generally know something that they don't. If you don't know why Millwall are favourites (and I don't), then you certainly shouldn't be betting on them.

I wasn't planning to back Millwall. The opposite. I was considering laying them off. I laid them off on Saturday at the MK Dons. But, Millwall did go 2 nil up. It needed MK Dons record signing new striker to hit back with two goals to save the bet. I risked £15 in order to win a tenner if it was a draw or MK Dons win.

I'm not going to touch Millwall tonight. I don't know how good Peterborough are this year. They always sell their best players. I had a better idea of MK Dons capabilities which is why I thought the Dons had enough about them not to get beat at home by Millwall.

[Top Flight]

I think the only bet that I will place tonight will be to back Brighton at home to Rotherham. I think Brighton will tear in to Rotherham and with all the quality the Seagulls have in their side, I don't see how Rotherham can withstand the pressure.

[Sanguine]

But if you don't know anything about Millwall then you aren't betting with information. It's just a hunch.

Fwiw, my treble for tonight is Villa, Brighton and a Leeds/Fulham draw, pays around 9/1.

[Top Flight]

But if you don't know anything about Millwall then you aren't betting with information. It's just a hunch.

Fwiw, my treble for tonight is Villa, Brighton and a Leeds/Fulham draw, pays around 9/1.

There's a decent chance that it might come off, but it also looks risky. It depends on Villa's attitude tonight and Leeds are misbehaving a bit at the moment. They are not behaving like the Leeds of last season. I hope it comes in.

[LWJ]

Bet 1:
£10 Brentford v Forest over 0.5 @ 1/20

[jd82]

Do you mean arbitrage? To be clear, i don't doubt you could be querying the database or
have made 10 grand (all very possible). Just the way you're explaining it sounded a bit bollox
(terrible use of th english language^^^)

This is quite a common thing. You either scrape the prices or use xml/json feeds provided
by bookmakers and look for an overound over 100%. You get profiled double quick and limited.

^ basically the post i couldn't be bothered to write..