THE BETTING THREAD

[Hendo]

I understand that you can control who you bet by looking at trends etc and therefore possibly limit your loses.

Who would've backed Luton against Reading in the 05/06 season with Reading laying waste to all challengers and were unbeaten for 33 games. Sensible bet is a Reading win or draw. Yes the value on Luton would've been huge and congratz to those who picked it but surely the majority wouldn't bet on Luton on that game.

Also keep in mind I was talking to Top Flight who thought we were discussing an accountancy qualification on a betting thread

[Top Flight]

My bets are going well tonight.

I'm annoyed I didnt have more bets on.

[Top Flight]

I understand that you can control who you bet by looking at trends etc and therefore possibly limit your loses.

Who would've backed Luton against Reading in the 05/06 season with Reading laying waste to all challengers and were unbeaten for 33 games. Sensible bet is a Reading win or draw. Yes the value on Luton would've been huge and congratz to those who picked it but surely the majority wouldn't bet on Luton on that game.

Also keep in mind I was talking to Top Flight who thought we were discussing an accountancy qualification on a betting thread

You know I was kidding about that....

[Top Flight]

I was about to back man city and as I was executing the bet they scored before the countdown could complete and I missed the chance.

[Top Flight]

I only did the three bets tonight

the Cubs won and Brighton won so my bets came in tonight.

I'm frustrated that I didn't lay off mil wall
I missed out on backing city as I was just too late at 1.6
I wish I had backed Wealdstone as I was close to doing that too.

Fortunately I didn't lay Charlton.

It was a good night of betting but it could have been much better.

[Hendo]

I understand that you can control who you bet by looking at trends etc and therefore possibly limit your loses.

Who would've backed Luton against Reading in the 05/06 season with Reading laying waste to all challengers and were unbeaten for 33 games. Sensible bet is a Reading win or draw. Yes the value on Luton would've been huge and congratz to those who picked it but surely the majority wouldn't bet on Luton on that game.

Also keep in mind I was talking to Top Flight who thought we were discussing an accountancy qualification on a betting thread

You know I was kidding about that....

[Sanguine]

But if you don't know anything about Millwall then you aren't betting with information. It's just a hunch.

Fwiw, my treble for tonight is Villa, Brighton and a Leeds/Fulham draw, pays around 9/1.

There's a decent chance that it might come off, but it also looks risky. It depends on Villa's attitude tonight and Leeds are misbehaving a bit at the moment. They are not behaving like the Leeds of last season. I hope it comes in.

Nearly, but not quite.

And m8, with the best will in the world I know you won't take this on board, but seriously consider the way you analyse football and bet.

[LWJ]

Huddesfield's equaliser...

[Sanguine]

I only did the three bets tonight

the Cubs won and Brighton won so my bets came in tonight.

I'm frustrated that I didn't lay off mil wall
I missed out on backing city as I was just too late at 1.6
I wish I had backed Wealdstone as I was close to doing that too.

Fortunately I didn't lay Charlton.

It was a good night of betting but it could have been much better.

You're obsessed. Wealdstone, ffs?

[Sanguine]

Just spent the last half an hour catching up on this thread. Absolute gold .

TF you should just get out now.

Is ACCA that accountancy qualification. LOL why would this be referenced on the betting thread?

You can't get good at betting, its not something you can practice because you do not control the outcome. Its like roulette, you bet, the wheel spins and you either win or you don't. There are a lot more variables with roulette, unless you are betting on red or black but I think the analogy works quite well.

There is no such thing as a sure thing and as such you could bet on the favourite every time and still lose every time.

This is bollox as well (doubleD's rules are also shite)

Give me about two weeks and i'll post what you need to know up

i.e. time decay priceline* and what the price will move to if an event happens i.e. a goal

Anyone saying you can't bet in the first weeks, needs to think that this can represent
opportunity as well as difficulty. Each trade needs to be assessed individually.

It's not bollox if you define it as betting. Define it as trading and bankroll management, minimising losses, maximising in-lay trading positions etc, and sure, you can do that the 'right' way - but on football only minimally, and importantly with a total absence of fun.

[Brosef Stalin]

Just spent the last half an hour catching up on this thread. Absolute gold .

TF you should just get out now.

Is ACCA that accountancy qualification. LOL why would this be referenced on the betting thread?

You can't get good at betting, its not something you can practice because you do not control the outcome. Its like roulette, you bet, the wheel spins and you either win or you don't. There are a lot more variables with roulette, unless you are betting on red or black but I think the analogy works quite well.

There is no such thing as a sure thing and as such you could bet on the favourite every time and still lose every time.

This is bollox as well (doubleD's rules are also shite)

Give me about two weeks and i'll post what you need to know up

i.e. time decay priceline* and what the price will move to if an event happens i.e. a goal

Anyone saying you can't bet in the first weeks, needs to think that this can represent
opportunity as well as difficulty. Each trade needs to be assessed individually.

It's not bollox if you define it as betting. Define it as trading and bankroll management, minimising losses, maximising in-lay trading positions etc, and sure, you can do that the 'right' way - but on football only minimally, and importantly with a total absence of fun.

WTF are you on about 'The Hustler'?

[Pepe the Horseman]

Huddesfield's equaliser...

Yup. Cost me £75.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Newcastle 3-0 14/1 tonight. Tempted to lump on Newcastle -1 at 19/10 as well. Will see how I get on with the 'orses this afternoon.

[George_]

Tonight's acca:

Derby
Brighton
Sheffield Wednesday
Gillingham
Sheffield United (schoolboy error)

Yep. Never bet on Sheffield United.

[RG30]

Had a stroke of good fortune yesterday. Done a £5 acca on Brentford, Aston Villa, Derby, Plymouth and Maidenhead which was due to return £346. With 3 minutes remaining had 4/5 with Derby drawing before they netted a late winner. Decided to cash out at £212 as I had enough near misses in the past week (3/4 previous Tuesday) and (2/3 Saturday) and as it happened Villa went onto concede injury time equaliser. One of those where the cash out was the best option!

[double d]

Just spent the last half an hour catching up on this thread. Absolute gold .

TF you should just get out now.

Is ACCA that accountancy qualification. LOL why would this be referenced on the betting thread?

You can't get good at betting, its not something you can practice because you do not control the outcome. Its like roulette, you bet, the wheel spins and you either win or you don't. There are a lot more variables with roulette, unless you are betting on red or black but I think the analogy works quite well.

There is no such thing as a sure thing and as such you could bet on the favourite every time and still lose every time.

This is bollox as well (doubleD's rules are also shite)

Give me about two weeks and i'll post what you need to know up

i.e. time decay priceline* and what the price will move to if an event happens i.e. a goal

Anyone saying you can't bet in the first weeks, needs to think that this can represent
opportunity as well as difficulty. Each trade needs to be assessed individually.

Why is this? They are not rules anybody else has to abide by, they are just how I like to bet and have done me quite fine in the past.

[Sanguine]

Hence my comment about 'absence of fun'. If you boil football betting down to tickers and algorithms and methods then you may as well just build a bot like EIL's OH.

[Zammo]

Had a stroke of good fortune yesterday. Done a £5 acca on Brentford, Aston Villa, Derby, Plymouth and Maidenhead which was due to return £346. With 3 minutes remaining had 4/5 with Derby drawing before they netted a late equaliser. Decided to cash out at £212 as I had enough near misses in the past week (3/4 previous Tuesday) and (2/3 Saturday) and as it happened Villa went onto concede injury time equaliser. One of those where the cash out was the best option!

Fair play, mate. Had a five team acca paying a couple of hundred....with Villa winning was waiting on Luton....Villa conceded the most comical goal you'll see all season and Luton score in the 96th. Three accas so far this season....all been let down by one team each time.

[Brosef Stalin]

Hence my comment about 'absence of fun'. If you boil football betting down to tickers and algorithms and methods then you may as well just build a bot like EIL's OH.

I enjoy building trading bots, what I used to do for a living (exploit
maker/taker rebates on exchanges)

In fact, I prefer it to discretionary trading. The fun is beating the game

At the moment I only trade on live sports that i can watch as there are
a number of qualitative variables which are difficult to assess. I have a
number of machine learning bots looking at twitter feeds etc

One arbitrage bot i've built looks at place values of horses. Bookmakers
quote them as a percentage of win price but they are actively traded on
exchanges so you get price differentials plus less likely to get flagged as
an arber. Nothing groundbreaking just a bit of fun. Bookmakers feeds
are usually a little bit shit

[Hendo]

I guess fun is a broadly defined term.