Play off odds

[Binfield Royal]

According to Oddschecker, Reading are the outsiders at 5/1.

Fulham are favourites, then Huddersfield then Sheffield.

Considering we are in 3rd spot and with every chance of staying there, do we agree with the "experts"?

I know Readings history with the play offs isn't great, but, I can't see the team not being fired up for this, and think we have a better chance then 5/1.

[Nameless]

Most bookies still don't even think we'll finish in the top 6 !
I'm guessing the odds setters are the same sort who have been saying Fulham are the form side ...

I doubt the odds make the slightest difference, it's a sideshow and at best it's a slightly educated guess. Our chances will be hugely boosted by the return of McShane and the fitness of McLeary. Everyone else's chances will be more influenced by how the react to the totally different pressures of the two legs knockout and league form / performance won't count for much. We do winning games better than the others !

[harry]

Most bookies still don't even think we'll finish in the top 6 !
I'm guessing the odds setters are the same sort who have been saying Fulham are the form side ...

False 3rd isn't in the top 6.
Wouldn't be surprised if they still have Leeds as more likely to be promoted than us.

Fulham's odds will be driven by the amount of money being placed, not by their actual chances.

Aren't Sheff Weds the form side anyway? And with their goal difference you could make a strong argument for them being favourites.

Fulham have won 4 of their last 5 away games (4, 0, 1), but only 2 of their last 5 home games (2, 2, 1)
Huddersfield's last 10 games they've won & lost 2 each at home & away they've won 2 drawn 1 & lost 3
Reading 4 wins & a draw at home. 2 wins & 3 defeats away
Sheff W are W 3 D 1 L 1 both home & away. But critically they have won all of their last 6 games

Either way, it's the play-offs so get the coins out and start tossing

[paultheroyal]

According to Oddschecker, Reading are the outsiders at 5/1.

Fulham are favourites, then Huddersfield then Sheffield.

Considering we are in 3rd spot and with every chance of staying there, do we agree with the "experts"?

I know Readings history with the play offs isn't great, but, I can't see the team not being fired up for this, and think we have a better chance then 5/1.

Swap Wednesday and Huddersfield over and bookies have that spot on.

[Snowball]

Statto has this for the last ten games

Nothing to choose points-wise between Wednesday, Fulham and Reading, with
Huddersfield poorer (14th in the league)


10 6 2 2 1 0 23 15 +8 20 2.00 ppg L W W W W D Fulham
10 6 2 2 3 2 12 09 +3 20 2.00 ppg W W W W W W Wednesday
10 6 1 3 4 2 15 16 -1 19 1.90 ppg W L W W L W Reading

10 4 1 5 3 4 10 16 -6 13 1.30 ppg W L W D L L Huddersfield


RFC's GD is seriously distorted by that 7-goal hammering at Norwich

I think Stam will play a far tighter away game in the two-legged semi,
looking for 0-0 or a one-goal defeat, only hoping for the breakaway win.

[NewCorkSeth]

Wednesday, being the only team who were in the play offs last season, seem to be criminally underrated.

[Ian Royal]

Not sure we can afford to play for a draw or narrow defeat away. We win a lot at home, but not by many goals.

IMO we want to try and win away, because if we can get our noses infront, with our home record, we're all but safe.

The key is cutting out stupid errors and not letting our heads drop and defence become the usual shambles if we do go behind so we can come back meaningfully before 90 mins is over. We should still be playing our game and looking for the win.

[Royal_jimmy]

The odds for us are pretty fair imo. I'd rather be underdogs anyway as we don't perform when we are expected to win

[BR0B0T]

if i was using some kind of goal expectancy model then
making Fulham & SWed favourites obvs makes sense.
There GD is way better (models usually based on the
distribution of goals scored)

We're most likely to face Fulham. They can only finish in
6th position. It's most likely we'll finish in 3rd (just going
on predicted odds with 1 point advantage).

[download]

I think our drubbing at Norwich has influenced the bookies. They probably feel we are at least punching above our weight or capable of being very fragile.

[CountryRoyal]

I think our drubbing at Norwich has influenced the bookies. They probably feel we are at least punching above our weight or capable of being very fragile.

Both would be true tbf.

[BR0B0T]

I've just told you how you calcul8 odds 4fs.

The 7 goals won't even make it into the calcs. Goals
will be pooled at 5+.

[JIM]

Lets see at the weekend who are the chickens, Loosing to establish a good first round opponent .

[Snowball]

Stam hinted on BBRB that his season-long away intentions were open play
looking for wins (which meant the occasional drubbing)

but that a two-legged game is like playing in Europe. You go away and
play it tight hoping for, at worst, a narrow defeat.

He gave the definite impression of setting up differently

[BR0B0T]

Fulham 2.2
Reading 3.3
Draw 4.2

Ok...the most basic odds calculation using goal expectancy (Poisson distribution).
using stats from http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?le ... and2&tid=f
Will be less accurate as it pools goals at 4 and above but not a huge difference.

Obvs this is based over 90 mins at a neutral venue. You'd have to factor in home/
away, current_score etc for the individual legs.

[double d]

We will loose and Fulham will won the playoffs there the best team

[Hound]

We've been strangely under appreciated this season. Both Fulham and Huddersfield have had pundits fawning over them, Leeds has their little spell in the sun, and realistically anything other than Play Offs would have been a disaster for Sheff Weds.

Don't really take a lot of notice of the odds but even in home games we only ever seem to be slight favourites if at all

The job Stam has done for us to be 3rd most of the season after last years disaster - amazed he isnt being linked to a prem team every week, along with BT and a few
More of the players

[CountryRoyal]

Glad we're the underdogs. Less expectation, less pressure.

[JIM]

You got to love all these pro pundits.,regarding the ROYALS performances this season. From day 1 The forecast was relegation.
Sky Always said under a new manager Royals would struggle

Now the bookies dont have much faith in us'
So it looks as though THE READING WAY will have to come into effect,
AND BEAT THE Cr-P out of ful hud s.w

[Dr_Hfuhruhurr]

If I was a betting man, I'd have a few quid on Wednesday. They've got a few good results recently and have been a half decent squad for a few years. It's only our victory there that puts me off. I'd want to put that bet on before the game against Fulham though. Win that and the bookies opinion will change.