by Brain Traysers »
11 Sep 2018 23:35
11 Sep 2018 23:35
bobby1413 wrote:
That Burton game was one of the worst I've been to for ages ... well up till that point. Since then there's been many others.
Do you think we'll avoid the drop this time?
I honestly think its too early to tell. Something could click and we could easily go on a run of games like Bolton have opened the season with - its clear to all we are completely devoid of confidence. The website I got the xG data from suggests we are now favorites to finish bottom, with 42% chance of relegation.
Its a much tougher league this year - good attacking teams came up from L1 and are having a go, while strong squads came down from the Prem without losing too many players. Bolton and/or Birmingham going into administration would certainly help us - but wouldn't solve the longer term issues. After 10-12 games or so if we are still struggling for goals and haven't cut out the silly mistakes I think it will be more likely than not that we go down. Our final 10 games look very tough too - we play the teams that the pre-season odds put as likely finishers in first (Stoke), second (WBrom), third (M'boro) and sixth (Leeds), with only one against a pre-season fellow relegation candidate (Hull).
Put another way, we have been 'lucky' for 1.5 seasons out of the last two (all of 2016/17 and second half of last season), and if we continue to be 'unlucky' this season, we will go down.