Half season review

[Brogue]

Half Season Review

Halfway point reached — time to assess how the season has really unfolded.

New chapter from Round 15 with Leam Richardson taking charge.

What’s changed?
What’s improved?
What still needs work?

Overall Performance;

Clear upward trend since Leam’s arrival
xG profile = mid-table level
Stronger at home, as expected

Progress visible. Platform building.





Reading vs Opponent Tier

• Top 6: → Competitive but usually second-best
• 7–12: → Results slightly outpacing performances
• 13–18: → Clear control + wins
• 19–24: → Dominant

A clue to where we finish this season?





Upset Wins

1-0 vs Northampton(H)
1-0 vs Stevenage(H)
3-2 vs Luton(H)

Bad Losses/Draws

1-2 vs Peterborough(H)

Attacking Overview;

Trend: up ↑

Early on: Underperformed xG

Mid-way: Results matched the process

Now: xG ↑ + goals ↑

Chance creation improving, and accuracy improving to allow us to finish on top.



From being outplayed to controlling matches.

Our recent performances show a much higher ceiling — even if consistency isn’t there yet.



Shot Quality > Shot Volume

More shots ≠ better results
Wins come with good volume + accuracy (10–15 shots, 5–7 on target)
Losses often = decent volume, poor accuracy
Draws sit in the middle

When we turn shots into shots on target, results follow.



Performance by Half

Early season: stronger 2nd halves — growing into games.

Now: faster starts, higher 1H xG & shots.

Recent games: some 2H drop-offs (game state, fatigue).

Evolved from reactive ➝ proactive.

Next step: Sustain intensity after HT.



Attacking Summary;

Slight overperformance: goals > xG (1.35 vs 1.15)

xG/shot almost identical to opp — margins are fine

Small edge in xG & goals, not dominance

We win on execution & game management, not volume — explains solid results and volatility.

Game Control;

Big takeaway

Our best football comes when we press aggressively, win the ball higher, and turn quick progressions into quality chances. When intensity drops, the entire attacking chain weakens.





Home vs Away;

We are better at imposing our press at home, which feeds into stronger ball progression and attacking threat. Away from home, we see a reduced or uneven pressing which likely explains why performances, not just results, are more volatile.

Tactical Profile;

We thrive on territory, not possession.

Mid-50s possession = control, not dominance

Short build-up preferred; long ball hurts us

Final-⅓ access = box threat

Crossing is a fallback

Lose territory → attacks go sterile.





Defensive Profile;

Mid-season improvement, slight late wobble

xG rises due to shot volume, not quality

Best spells come with strong pressing & territory

Limit access → defend well. Lose the press → goals follow.



Defensive Block;

Deeper block = more pressure & shots

Higher block = stronger press & control

Dropping again brings risk back

Sitting deep doesn’t protect us.
Defend higher, press harder = better defence & attack.

Big Chances Conceded

Clear improvement made → PoC & D.Williams both starting their partnership around Round 12/13.



CB Impact;

Early season: box shots conceded spiked.
After R12/13 (CBs return): sharp, sustained drop.
Late season: slight rise, still far better than early.

Fit CBs = higher line, stronger press, fewer box entries.
Biggest defensive turning point of the season.



Goalkeeper impact = team structure

Early season: high-quality shots, little protection → keeper exposed

Mid-season (CBs back, higher line): fewer box shots → keeper adds value

Late season: structure slips → keeper firefighting again







Key Takeaways | Season So Far

Clear Progression Since Leam arrived: upward trend.
Mid-table xG profile, stronger at home, and control now the norm rather than the exception.

Attack = Quality, Not Volume Results follow shot accuracy & execution, not raw shots. xG ↑, goals ↑, but margins remain fine — explains both wins and volatility.

Control Comes From the Press Best football comes with aggressive pressing, territory won, and fast progression. When intensity drops, threat and control fall with it.

Defence is a Big turning point: CB returns → higher line, stronger press, fewer box shots. Sitting deep hurts us; defending high protects both defence and keeper.

We are strongest as a territory + progression team. Sustain intensity, and the ceiling rises.

[Clyde1998]

Reading vs Opponent Tier

• Top 6: → Competitive but usually second-best
• 7–12: → Results slightly outpacing performances
• 13–18: → Clear control + wins
• 19–24: → Dominant

A clue to where we finish this season?

Is this based on current position, or the position the sides were in when we played them?

[Brogue]

Reading vs Opponent Tier

• Top 6: → Competitive but usually second-best
• 7–12: → Results slightly outpacing performances
• 13–18: → Clear control + wins
• 19–24: → Dominant

A clue to where we finish this season?

Is this based on current position, or the position the sides were in when we played them?

Position they were in when we played them

[Hound]

Thanks Brogue some interesting takeaways from that. Will probably need to read back through a few times though…

[stealthpapes]

May I check Figure 1.

If its cumulative points, then the first three games should be zero. Instead they appear to at 3 pts. The last game indicated is a draw, so its missing the last game we did play, a home win.

As a style choice, I'd put the points per game as a second y-axis.

[Mr Angry]

In summary, we started poorly, the owners got rid of the manager and under the new manager, the team have improved and are on an upward trajectory.

Conclussion? The owners made the right call in replacing Noel with Leam.

[stealthpapes]

This graph is screaming at me, its telling the reader something very obvious which the style of presentation is making less clear than more.



If I have it right, the diagonal lines correspond to goals conceded. The points below Goals Prevented = 0 indicate where the # goals conceded is higher than the xG of the other side i.e. we've conceded where we probably shouldn't. So games further to the top right indicate very good goalkeeper performances? Right?

Maybe shear the data?

[Brogue]

May I check Figure 1.

If its cumulative points, then the first three games should be zero. Instead they appear to at 3 pts. The last game indicated is a draw, so its missing the last game we did play, a home win.

As a style choice, I'd put the points per game as a second y-axis.

Not sure I understand, because it’s rolling average 5 game figure, the cumulative line stats at the rolling

[stealthpapes]

May I check Figure 1.

If its cumulative points, then the first three games should be zero. Instead they appear to at 3 pts. The last game indicated is a draw, so its missing the last game we did play, a home win.

As a style choice, I'd put the points per game as a second y-axis.

Not sure I understand, because it’s rolling average 5 game figure, the cumulative line stats at the rolling

Did we start the season on 3 points?

EDIT - is the blue line is the cumulative total of points won, or something else?

[Snowflake Royal]

Summer Transfer Business

Stevens - 6 solid back up keeper. Not someone you want to have as first choice, but an able short term deputy. Pretty much what we needed.
Jacob - 6 performed ok, but not outstanding. Gave good cover, but got injured and sent back, cost us little.
O'Connor - 8 not very mobile, but dominant in the air. Good signing and key player.
Burns - 5 wasn't up to it early on but seems to be improving. Ok, but we had to sign Wiliams because of his poor start.
D Williams - 9 great signing and contender for PotS. Hopefully not out too long. Reads the game very well.
Fraser - 7 very able cover midfielder who can slot almost seamlessly into the first team.
Rinomhota - 5 cracking player, but we've barely seen him so far.
Doyle - 6 slow start, but he's coming good. Not the complete package but undeniably skillful
Lane - 5 underperformed so far, and out injured a lot, but there's a quality L1 player who might be able to step up a division if we can just get him on the pitch and performing.
Kyerewaa - 7 very raw, but exciting and he's starting to produce more end product. Has lots of potential.
Ritchie - 6 very experienced and a touch of quality, but doesn't really have the legs anymore. And we've got oodles of wingers
R Williams - 7 cracking free signing who has pace, drive and skill. Hope we can keep him.
O'Mahoney - 3 pretty dreadful signing. Doesn't ever look like scoring, can't really press, or hold up the ball, or win headers.
Marriott - 9 brilliant goalscoring record and fabulous antidote to O'Mahoney's disappointment. Keep up the scoring record and he'll walk PotS.

[Snowflake Royal]

May I check Figure 1.

If its cumulative points, then the first three games should be zero. Instead they appear to at 3 pts. The last game indicated is a draw, so its missing the last game we did play, a home win.

As a style choice, I'd put the points per game as a second y-axis.

Not sure I understand, because it’s rolling average 5 game figure, the cumulative line stats at the rolling

Did we start the season on 3 points?

Brogue's saying it starts at game 5 isn’t he?

If I was doing rolling points analysis, I'd do rolling 6 game average (should theoretically be 3 home and 3 away) and as a points per game value.

[Brogue]

Not sure I understand, because it’s rolling average 5 game figure, the cumulative line stats at the rolling

Did we start the season on 3 points?

Brogue's saying it starts at game 5 isn’t he?

If I was doing rolling points analysis, I'd do rolling 6 game average (should theoretically be 3 home and 3 away) and as a points per game value.

indeed, here is the raw data. if people are interested they can make as many visuals to their needs as they want.

It's a huge data set which i cant believe I'm sharing for free . You're welcome

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[stealthpapes]

Don't doubt there's loads of stats but Figure 1 is definitely broken.

[Brogue]

In summary, we started poorly, the owners got rid of the manager and under the new manager, the team have improved and are on an upward trajectory.

Conclussion? The owners made the right call in replacing Noel with Leam.

Actually what the data shows is when Williams and POC came into the team. Statistics started to improve. Results started to improve under Leam. Statistically we aren’t playing any better or worse than under Noel vs Leam. The improvements happened Since them two came into the team on the regs

[WestYorksRoyal]

In summary, we started poorly, the owners got rid of the manager and under the new manager, the team have improved and are on an upward trajectory.

Conclussion? The owners made the right call in replacing Noel with Leam.

Actually what the data shows is when Williams and POC came into the team. Statistics started to improve. Results started to improve under Leam. Statistically we aren’t playing any better or worse than under Noel vs Leam. The improvements happened Since them two came into the team on the regs

We just got 4 points from 2 games without Williams, in which Burns actually looked good compared with the walking liability we saw under Hunt.

Things have clearly improved under Richardson, it's just some people are choosing not to see it.

[Brogue]

This graph is screaming at me, its telling the reader something very obvious which the style of presentation is making less clear than more.



If I have it right, the diagonal lines correspond to goals conceded. The points below Goals Prevented = 0 indicate where the # goals conceded is higher than the xG of the other side i.e. we've conceded where we probably shouldn't. So games further to the top right indicate very good goalkeeper performances? Right?

Maybe shear the data?

essentially yes, however this is xGOT (expected goals on target) xG measures the quality of the chances that a side makes and xGOT builds on this to tells us what a team managed to do with these chances. Essentially, xG is a pre-shot model while xGOT is a post-shot model.

The Expected Goals on Target model is built on historical on-target shots and includes the original xG of the shot but also the goalmouth location where the shot ended up. It gives more credit to shots that end up in the corners compared with shots that go straight down the middle of the goal. This model is only for on-target shots given that if you don’t get your shot on target, there’s a 0% chance that it will result in a goal.

example:

[stealthpapes]

Like the other comment, that wasn't really what I was focusing on.

Shear the data in each column by 45 degrees i.e. plot the difference against # goals conceded, it'll be much clearer and much more useful. You could also colour code - red/blue for change of manager. Or some indication of quality of opposition.

I think it will show that 2-goal + defeats correspond to softer goals going in.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Half Season Review

Halfway point reached — time to assess how the season has really unfolded.

New chapter from Round 15 with Leam Richardson taking charge.

What’s changed?
What’s improved?
What still needs work?

Overall Performance;

Clear upward trend since Leam’s arrival
xG profile = mid-table level
Stronger at home, as expected

Progress visible. Platform building.





Reading vs Opponent Tier

• Top 6: → Competitive but usually second-best
• 7–12: → Results slightly outpacing performances
• 13–18: → Clear control + wins
• 19–24: → Dominant

A clue to where we finish this season?





Upset Wins

1-0 vs Northampton(H)
1-0 vs Stevenage(H)
3-2 vs Luton(H)

Bad Losses/Draws

1-2 vs Peterborough(H)

Attacking Overview;

Trend: up ↑

Early on: Underperformed xG

Mid-way: Results matched the process

Now: xG ↑ + goals ↑

Chance creation improving, and accuracy improving to allow us to finish on top.



From being outplayed to controlling matches.

Our recent performances show a much higher ceiling — even if consistency isn’t there yet.



Shot Quality > Shot Volume

More shots ≠ better results
Wins come with good volume + accuracy (10–15 shots, 5–7 on target)
Losses often = decent volume, poor accuracy
Draws sit in the middle

When we turn shots into shots on target, results follow.



Performance by Half

Early season: stronger 2nd halves — growing into games.

Now: faster starts, higher 1H xG & shots.

Recent games: some 2H drop-offs (game state, fatigue).

Evolved from reactive ➝ proactive.

Next step: Sustain intensity after HT.



Attacking Summary;

Slight overperformance: goals > xG (1.35 vs 1.15)

xG/shot almost identical to opp — margins are fine

Small edge in xG & goals, not dominance

We win on execution & game management, not volume — explains solid results and volatility.

Game Control;

Big takeaway

Our best football comes when we press aggressively, win the ball higher, and turn quick progressions into quality chances. When intensity drops, the entire attacking chain weakens.





Home vs Away;

We are better at imposing our press at home, which feeds into stronger ball progression and attacking threat. Away from home, we see a reduced or uneven pressing which likely explains why performances, not just results, are more volatile.

Tactical Profile;

We thrive on territory, not possession.

Mid-50s possession = control, not dominance

Short build-up preferred; long ball hurts us

Final-⅓ access = box threat

Crossing is a fallback

Lose territory → attacks go sterile.





Defensive Profile;

Mid-season improvement, slight late wobble

xG rises due to shot volume, not quality

Best spells come with strong pressing & territory

Limit access → defend well. Lose the press → goals follow.



Defensive Block;

Deeper block = more pressure & shots

Higher block = stronger press & control

Dropping again brings risk back

Sitting deep doesn’t protect us.
Defend higher, press harder = better defence & attack.

Big Chances Conceded

Clear improvement made → PoC & D.Williams both starting their partnership around Round 12/13.



CB Impact;

Early season: box shots conceded spiked.
After R12/13 (CBs return): sharp, sustained drop.
Late season: slight rise, still far better than early.

Fit CBs = higher line, stronger press, fewer box entries.
Biggest defensive turning point of the season.



Goalkeeper impact = team structure

Early season: high-quality shots, little protection → keeper exposed

Mid-season (CBs back, higher line): fewer box shots → keeper adds value

Late season: structure slips → keeper firefighting again







Key Takeaways | Season So Far

Clear Progression Since Leam arrived: upward trend.
Mid-table xG profile, stronger at home, and control now the norm rather than the exception.

Attack = Quality, Not Volume Results follow shot accuracy & execution, not raw shots. xG ↑, goals ↑, but margins remain fine — explains both wins and volatility.

Control Comes From the Press Best football comes with aggressive pressing, territory won, and fast progression. When intensity drops, threat and control fall with it.

Defence is a Big turning point: CB returns → higher line, stronger press, fewer box shots. Sitting deep hurts us; defending high protects both defence and keeper.

We are strongest as a territory + progression team. Sustain intensity, and the ceiling rises.

LEAM IN

[Sutekh]

Second half of the season, remaining games:

Orient (a)
Barnsley (h)
Exeter (h)
Northampton (a)
Wimbledon (a)
Wycombe (h)
Wigan (a)
Bolton (h)
Port vale (a)
Bradford (h)
Luton (a)
Plymouth (h)
Burton (a)
Stevenage (a)
Wigan (h)
Huddersfield (a)
Lincoln (h)
Doncaster (a)
Cardiff (h)
Rotherham (a)
Blackpool (h)

TBA - Mansfield (a)

Think the difficult looking period is the late March/early April games highlighted above. Got to hope we’re still in the hunt by the end of that run then we could be quids in for another shot at play off disappointment.