Gomes after 10 League Games

[windermereROYAL]

The passion from him and his coaching staff throughout the game was a joy to behold, they want the same as us fans, that can`t be said about certain past managers here.

[Denver Royal]

Lets not be counting our chickens just yet but for me, the biggest improvement is that I see players really wanting to play for the manager and the manager investing emotionally in the club and giving everyone a lift.
It's just very good man management and something we've not really seen since Brian's first spell in charge.

The passion from him and his coaching staff throughout the game was a joy to behold, they want the same as us fans, that can`t be said about certain past managers here.

Yep, and as LW said on another thread, even the loanees embody this. You can debate their respective playing qualities, but they have bought in and are busting ass. You don't always see that with loanees at other clubs.
Miazga, for example, didn't have his best game today, but you couldn't question his battling qualities or effort. He was emotionally all in today and you could tell it really mattered to him.

[Lower West]

Against the 5 clubs beneath us in the table. In 10 fixtures this year we've only kept one clean sheet. That was 0-0 away at Wigan. Whatever comparisons one wishes to make between Clement and Gomes. The only conclusion one can draw is that the squad is the problem. Not either of the respective managers.

[Lower West]

Lets not be counting our chickens just yet but for me, the biggest improvement is that I see players really wanting to play for the manager and the manager investing emotionally in the club and giving everyone a lift.
It's just very good man management and something we've not really seen since Brian's first spell in charge.

The passion from him and his coaching staff throughout the game was a joy to behold, they want the same as us fans, that can`t be said about certain past managers here.

Yep, and as LW said on another thread, even the loanees embody this. You can debate their respective playing qualities, but they have bought in and are busting ass. You don't always see that with loanees at other clubs.
Miazga, for example, didn't have his best game today, but you couldn't question his battling qualities or effort. He was emotionally all in today and you could tell it really mattered to him.

You do sense that the squad now has had it's shackles removed. Any unrest in the changing room has been eradicated, If on the last day of the season. We need to overturn a 1-0 deficit. That the team on the day would respond to Gomes infectious passion and give it a go to the end. No dropping of heads.

[Denver Royal]

Whatever comparisons one wishes to make between Clement and Gomes...

I don't really wish to make any. What's the point? Not sure it serves any useful purpose. I could care less about Clement now. Or Stam. They had a go, and were here a short time. They don't give two hoots about this club. It's ridiculous to be so hung up on them. How come Adkins and Clarke are rarely mentioned? They are all gone. History. Let's move on.

[Denver Royal]

We know we lack quality and suitability for this div. Knew it before and know it now. Trying to get over the line with what we have.
Always said team lacks physique, height, strength, for Champ. Fragile, weak, injury prone. Even youngsters coming thru are short-ish and slow-ish.
Every game in this div we line up seemingly dumbfounded that opposition is bigger, stronger, more physical than us.
'He was up against two big brutes, I feel sad for Ilori, Bod, they seem like nice guys', etc.
This all needs to be addressed in Summer, play percentages, on level playing field.
Leeds next, Bielsa turned them around quick.

[Snowflake Royal]

Nice guy, picking up results now, as was needed. Although half his wins have been from last minute goals against two of the worst teams around and in the last two games, so I wouldnt get too excited about this continuing.

These two wins have given him a great chance of keeping us up though. Im more confident of surviving than at any point since game 4 or 5 back in August / September.

That brings its own problems though as I still find it hard to see us improving enough over the summer to be comfortably mid-table throughout next season and Im just not sure I can face another 17th to 24th season. I still have a problem with his desire to pass out from the back and split his CBs too.

He is definitely hitting goal at present and doing what he was hired too. And given the dearth of options he has left in midfield and in general, that's no mean feat.

[Snowball]

Stat Update

P W D L F A

23 4 7 12 27 36 Pre-Gomes

15 4 5 5 15 20 Gomes all games

13 4 5 4 15 19 Gomes games 3-15

PPG Goals F/A
0.83 1.17 - 1.57 Pre-Gomes
1.20 1.00 - 1.33 Gomes all games
1.31 1.15 - 1.46 Gomes games 3-15

Based on my 13 games our Goals-For is almost identical
but our goals against is (surprisingly) improved.

We have managed a clean sheet in one third of our games under Gomes

Our -GD comes from three bad defeats 1-4, 4-0, and 0-3 )(-10)

38 Pts Season Equivalent 54 F - 72 A - GD - 18 Pre-Gomes
55 Pts Season Equivalent 46 F - 61 A - GD - 15 Gomes all games
60 Pts Season Equivalent 53 F - 67 A. - GD - 14 Gomes after 2 games

[Snowflake Royal]

The next few games are very interesting*. They should tell us whether we can expect more of Gomes' good recent mini run, or whether that was just a blip from an easy run of games and we can expect more like the results when he first arrived.

Obviously, this is a period where he's even more hamstrung by injuries than normal. But hopefully the break can help sort that a bit.

[URZZZZ]

Hope to be proven wrong but I can’t see more than 1-2 points in the next three games

Preston have won their last 6 away and are unbeaten in 2019

Hull are unbeaten at home since early December

We really struggle against the teams at the top so Norwich will be another hard one

I can feasibly see us getting 0 points from that lot, especially with no nelson there

[Zip]

Hope to be proven wrong but I can’t see more than 1-2 points in the next three games

Preston have won their last 6 away and are unbeaten in 2019

Hull are unbeaten at home since early December

We really struggle against the teams at the top so Norwich will be another hard one

I can feasibly see us getting 0 points from that lot, especially with no nelson there

Unfortunately so. When you consider how badly Preston did at the start of the season it shows how well they have been performing ever since as only goal difference separates them from a play off position. We need wins but in reality a draw against them would be a good result.
Without Oliveira I do not know where the goals are coming from.

[windermereROYAL]

Hope to be proven wrong but I can’t see more than 1-2 points in the next three games

Preston have won their last 6 away and are unbeaten in 2019

Hull are unbeaten at home since early December

We really struggle against the teams at the top so Norwich will be another hard one

I can feasibly see us getting 0 points from that lot, especially with no nelson there

Preston are flying yes, but records are there to be broken, I fancy us for a draw at least there, and Hull have thrown away 2 goal leads against high flying Rotherham and QPR at home recently. keep the faith. doubt we will get anything at Norwich though.

[Snowflake Royal]

It's a fair point that good runs end, and outside the real standout sides, it's not necessarily bad to play someone on a good run like Preston.

As said above, that run will end, probably sooner rather than later and the Championship is full of upsets.

I almost feel happier playing a Play Off chaser on a long good run than I would a mid-table side on a long bad run. Because those are both the sort of sides that have quite a lot of us and downs both. We all know how good we are at turning around long bad runs for teams.

[strap]

I developed a spreadsheet for the run-in back in mid-Jan, at the time Preston were 7th bottom (they're now 7th top!), so I included them.

At that time we were 22nd having played 27 games.

Since then, the bottom 6 has remained the same, and we have won 14 points from 11 games, Rotherham 11 (from 11), Wigan 10 (from 11), Millwall 9 (from 10), Bolton 7 (from 11) and Ipswich 6 (from 11). So we are the only team in the bottom 6 to have won more than 1 point per game in that time, but we have only risen 1 place to 21st.

In the last 6 matches both we and Rotherham have amassed 8 points, Millwall 6, Ipswich and Wigan 5 and Bolton just 3.

So on the surface it does look as though we have picked our form slightly, at least compared to the bottom 6. The problem is the remaining 8 games.

The "average" of our remaining opponents current league position is 8th, with away games against Hull (currently 12th), Norwich (1st), Bristol C (9th) and and Middlesbrough (5th) to come. My original view in mid-Jan was that we would lose all 4. At home it's not much better. I can only see draws at home to Preston (which I estimated in mid-Jan when they were 7th bottom! Since then they have been on an unbeaten 11 match streak with 8 wins!), Brentford and Birmingham.

Now compare that with the "average" league position of the opponents of the rest of the bottom 6 :
Wigan = 10th
Millwall = 10th
Rotherham = 10th
Bolton = 13th
Ipswich = 11th

So on paper we have the toughest run-in. My pessimistic case shows only another 3 points, meaning we get to 40, with Rotherham safe by 3 points, (assuming they get another 7 points from their last 8 games).

So how to stay up? Seems to me we need to beat Preston (tall order currently), beat Brentford at home ( also a tall order currently), and beat Birmingham at home on the last day of the season. Birmingham might be OK as by then they should be on the beach, (but if they suffer a points deduction for FFP issues), then they will be right in the thick of it and fighting tooth and nail to stay up.

If we go into the last game of the season still with our fate in our own hands, I think that will be the best we can expect currently. May 5th is going to be one hell of a day - especially as Millwall have to visit Wigan.

[URZZZZ]

In all honesty, it's always difficult to predict now what will happen in a month's time. We don't know what Boro, West Brom etc will be doing at that time. They could be comfortably cemented in the top 6 and hence put their second team out to save injury/suspension. I think the duo of West Brom/Boro could be the place to pick up points

For example Huddersfield in the 16/17 season:

Birmingham 2-0 Huddersfield (when Birmingham were 21st) - Huddersfield made 10 changes or something

Millwall 1-0 Villa last season when Villa were guaranteed top 6

Bolton 1-0 Hull in the 2015/16 season when Bolton were rock bottom and Hull were cemented in top 6

[Hound]

Brentford are wildly inconsistent but they’ve certainly lost a few recently. Brum are shit and really should be beaten

You’d hope to get draws against Hull, Brizzle, Preston maybe Boro

It’ll almost certainly be tight but there are games that are perfectly winnable

[Old Man Andrews]

Brentford are wildly inconsistent but they’ve certainly lost a few recently. Brum are shit and really should be beaten

You’d hope to get draws against Hull, Brizzle, Preston maybe Boro

It’ll almost certainly be tight but there are games that are perfectly winnable

Why would we hope to be getting anything against teams in the playoffs away from home? We may as well completely write them off, not going to get anything at Bristol City or Middlesbrough with the players we have available.

[Stranded]

Brentford are wildly inconsistent but they’ve certainly lost a few recently. Brum are shit and really should be beaten

You’d hope to get draws against Hull, Brizzle, Preston maybe Boro

It’ll almost certainly be tight but there are games that are perfectly winnable

Yep Brentford are win 1 lose 1 at the mo - 3 wins 3 defeats over the last 6 and 4 and 4 over 8. Away from home, they are only 2 wins in 8 - massive target should be on their back.

[Stranded]

Brentford are wildly inconsistent but they’ve certainly lost a few recently. Brum are shit and really should be beaten

You’d hope to get draws against Hull, Brizzle, Preston maybe Boro

It’ll almost certainly be tight but there are games that are perfectly winnable

Why would we hope to be getting anything against teams in the playoffs away from home? We may as well completely write them off, not going to get anything at Bristol City or Middlesbrough with the players we have available.

Because we need to and Bristol City's from has taken a dive over the past 6 games - just 1 win in that time. If Ipswich can get a point there we have to fancy our chances.

Same with Hull - they are not playing well - 16th or 17th on form over the past 8 to 10 games - they are up there due to an excellent run in the middle of the season but seem to be returning to the mean now - it is a winnable game.

Not saying we will win them but those 2 in particular are games we should not be writing off. The only right off in my mind is Norwich - our record there is pretty poor of late anyway and this year they are actually good.

[Stranded]

I developed a spreadsheet for the run-in back in mid-Jan, at the time Preston were 7th bottom (they're now 7th top!), so I included them.

At that time we were 22nd having played 27 games.

Since then, the bottom 6 has remained the same, and we have won 14 points from 11 games, Rotherham 11 (from 11), Wigan 10 (from 11), Millwall 9 (from 10), Bolton 7 (from 11) and Ipswich 6 (from 11). So we are the only team in the bottom 6 to have won more than 1 point per game in that time, but we have only risen 1 place to 21st.

In the last 6 matches both we and Rotherham have amassed 8 points, Millwall 6, Ipswich and Wigan 5 and Bolton just 3.

So on the surface it does look as though we have picked our form slightly, at least compared to the bottom 6. The problem is the remaining 8 games.

The "average" of our remaining opponents current league position is 8th, with away games against Hull (currently 12th), Norwich (1st), Bristol C (9th) and and Middlesbrough (5th) to come. My original view in mid-Jan was that we would lose all 4. At home it's not much better. I can only see draws at home to Preston (which I estimated in mid-Jan when they were 7th bottom! Since then they have been on an unbeaten 11 match streak with 8 wins!), Brentford and Birmingham.

Now compare that with the "average" league position of the opponents of the rest of the bottom 6 :
Wigan = 10th
Millwall = 10th
Rotherham = 10th
Bolton = 13th
Ipswich = 11th

So on paper we have the toughest run-in. My pessimistic case shows only another 3 points, meaning we get to 40, with Rotherham safe by 3 points, (assuming they get another 7 points from their last 8 games).

So how to stay up? Seems to me we need to beat Preston (tall order currently), beat Brentford at home ( also a tall order currently), and beat Birmingham at home on the last day of the season. Birmingham might be OK as by then they should be on the beach, (but if they suffer a points deduction for FFP issues), then they will be right in the thick of it and fighting tooth and nail to stay up.

If we go into the last game of the season still with our fate in our own hands, I think that will be the best we can expect currently. May 5th is going to be one hell of a day - especially as Millwall have to visit Wigan.

One of the interesting* aspects of the run-ins is that many of the teams at the bottom are playing the same sides - so direct results against those teams will define a lot now. Listed below teams who have at least 3 of the bottom 6 left to play.

Brentford - 5 of the bottom 6 left to play
Birmingham - 4 (could be massive if they do lose points this week) - last 3 games are Rotherham (a), Wigan (H), Reading (a)
Bristol City - 3
Middlesborough - 3
Hull - 3
Leeds - 3
Preston - 3
Villa - 3
WBA - 3

Also worth noting that Reading and Rotherham's last 3 games are against the same 3 clubs - both have Brum at home, WBA & Boro games switched.