Rival Watch

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Re: Rival Watch

by CountryRoyal » 20 May 2019 23:50

URZZZZ
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There are so many "roundabout" managers with failure after failure yet still find themselves in a job too often so not sure I agree

He was under very little pressure at Swansea. He had the support of the fans and had managed to cut the wage bill significantly whilst still producing a decent outcome. At Brighton, he'll be under huge pressure to deliver, the Premier League is a very unforgiving league and Brighton's squad is very limited at this moment (who knows what sort of budget he'll get)

The chances of him getting sacked are a lot more likely at Brighton than at Swansea. Surely he'd prefer to earn a "lower wage" than be unemployed

You kidding?

Earn a high wage and be successful = moving on to better.

Or

Earn a high wage and get sacked in six months with a massive pay off then get another job.

Vs

Earn a lower salary and maybe get sacked in six months anyway.


Vs

Stay at Swansea, continue building a decent reputation, and maybe take them to the Premier League where they would pay him a higher salary anyway


Which is a far less likely scenario. I hope you’re not a gambling man URZZZZ.

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Re: Rival Watch

by URZZZZ » 21 May 2019 01:08

CountryRoyal
URZZZZ
Snowflake Royal You kidding?

Earn a high wage and be successful = moving on to better.

Or

Earn a high wage and get sacked in six months with a massive pay off then get another job.

Vs

Earn a lower salary and maybe get sacked in six months anyway.


Vs

Stay at Swansea, continue building a decent reputation, and maybe take them to the Premier League where they would pay him a higher salary anyway


Which is a far less likely scenario. I hope you’re not a gambling man URZZZZ.


Aye, I'll agree to disagree here, can see him having the "De Boer" syndrome

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Re: Rival Watch

by From Despair To Where? » 21 May 2019 06:49

I think Potter's jumped the gun. He's built up a decent reputation in Sweden and has done a good job at Swansea in the circumstances. Give it until Christmas and there'll be better jobs than Brighton available in the Premiership.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 21 May 2019 09:06

From Despair To Where? I think Potter's jumped the gun. He's built up a decent reputation in Sweden and has done a good job at Swansea in the circumstances. Give it until Christmas and there'll be better jobs than Brighton available in the Premiership.


He'll know what we don't and that is the situation at Swansea with regards to the playing squad next season - if stories are to be believed, there will be a lot moving out again and not much being made available to reinvest. He may well be thinking that the situation is only going to get more difficult there and the chances of him personally progressing will be stunted by working with a weaker squad - finishing 10th with again next year could be a major acheivement but to other clubs it may not look it, then the club go backwards and he eventually gets sacked.

Brighton have restructured their footballing side, what with Dan Ashworth coming in and the way they want to work will fit with Potter's views on moving forward - it is a sensible move for him which may backfire but could also see him move Brighton up to a club who finish 12th and enhance his own reputation. As things stand the only way an English manager tends to get to manage in the PL, is by getting a club promoted - I don't see that being possible at Swansea.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 21 May 2019 09:16

Very much the case. When you are flavour of the month, use it to your advantage.

If they sell James, and don't reinvest, I think they'll struggle whoever is in charge. Esp now the likes of Fer have gone as well. Plus teams will know a bit more what Potter is about in the champ.


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Re: Rival Watch

by CountryRoyal » 21 May 2019 13:15

URZZZZ
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URZZZZ
Vs

Stay at Swansea, continue building a decent reputation, and maybe take them to the Premier League where they would pay him a higher salary anyway


Which is a far less likely scenario. I hope you’re not a gambling man URZZZZ.


Aye, I'll agree to disagree here, can see him having the "De Boer" syndrome


By that, do you mean get a huge salary coaching in MLS?

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Re: Rival Watch

by muirinho » 21 May 2019 13:23

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URZZZZ
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Which is a far less likely scenario. I hope you’re not a gambling man URZZZZ.


Aye, I'll agree to disagree here, can see him having the "De Boer" syndrome


By that, do you mean get a huge salary coaching in MLS?


Exactly this! Even doing a half-arsed job for 6 months for a PL side is going to get Potter more visibility and kudos than any time in the Swedish league, or Championship. It means that if it all goes pear-shaped, he's got a lot better shot of getting a well-paying job abroad somewhere, if he decides he can't hack it in the PL. Make hay while the sun shines.

In any case, he'd need two or three substantial failures in the English leagues before he'd stop being considered for positions - after Brighton, regardless of how it ends, you could see him going to another championship team at least. So potential up-side is big, down-side almost non-existent.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 21 May 2019 13:40

out of interest, this is the team Swansea put out at the Madejski, with their age and league appearances in the brackets (caveat stats are end of the season, not in Jan when they played us):

Mulder (30, 202)
Naughton (30, 318)
van der Hoorn (26, 157)
Rodon (21, 39)
Roberts (23, 97)
Fer (29, 322)
Grimes (23, 171)
Dyer (31, 368)

Celina (22, 101)
Routledge (34, 483)
McBurnie (22, 122)

subs included:
Montero (29, 227)
Fulton (25,151)
McKay (24,200)

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Re: Rival Watch

by URZZZZ » 21 May 2019 13:47

But that’s just something to fit your narrative. Equally I could find another game through the entire 46 game season where the average age is a lot younger. You have to look at the broader picture and as someone said their average age was 22 or something (not sure how accurate that is)

Will be interesting to see if he takes any of his ex players to Brighton with him, can possibly see James going there with him


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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 21 May 2019 13:50

yes it does fit my narrative, and you could probably find one where he filled the team with youth.

But I didn't trawl through their games, just picked the obvious one. And it does show he had plenty of experience available to him, and maybe he wasn't quite 'forced' to use youth in the way some have framed it. Obvs you are going to pick James ahead of Routledge at times, as he is shit hot. But he did inherit him. Fair play for helping him reach some of his potential, but I'm not convinced he had it much harder than the likes of Brentford, Preston - even the likes of Norwich and Sheff Utd

To me he sounds like he did something similar to what Gomes did here. Picked the side up, identified and integrated some youth whilst getting some good and some bad results. Decent, but no more than a building block

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 21 May 2019 15:25

Hound yes it does fit my narrative, and you could probably find one where he filled the team with youth.

But I didn't trawl through their games, just picked the obvious one. And it does show he had plenty of experience available to him, and maybe he wasn't quite 'forced' to use youth in the way some have framed it. Obvs you are going to pick James ahead of Routledge at times, as he is shit hot. But he did inherit him. Fair play for helping him reach some of his potential, but I'm not convinced he had it much harder than the likes of Brentford, Preston - even the likes of Norwich and Sheff Utd

To me he sounds like he did something similar to what Gomes did here. Picked the side up, identified and integrated some youth whilst getting some good and some bad results. Decent, but no more than a building block


Swansea had the 2nd youngest average age in the Championship last year at 25.3 years (we were 25.8).

Look at the graph here: https://experimental361.com/2019/05/08/ ... 2017-18-2/

The most minutes were given to players who were 22 or 23 years of age.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 21 May 2019 15:30

yep which I think also is roughly my point. They weren't massively different (up to .5 of a year different) from the likes of us, Norwich, Preston or Brentford.

I've little doubt (though again without checking) that their squad prob cost a fair bit more as well

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 21 May 2019 15:59

Hound yep which I think also is roughly my point. They weren't massively different (up to .5 of a year different) from the likes of us, Norwich, Preston or Brentford.

I've little doubt (though again without checking) that their squad prob cost a fair bit more as well


I think the difference is the spread of ages making up the minutes.

So for Swansea, 54% of the minutes played last year were by players aged under 23 (16 players), whereas for us, as an example, players under 23 equated to 30% of total playing time despite also using 16 players under 23 under the course of a season.

Swansea U23s averaged 1700 mins in the first team last year, Reading u23s 985.

The average age equates to be roughly the same as the majority of our minutes were played by players aged 25 to 27 last season. We had 12 players in that age bracket accounting for 45% of our total minutes. Whereas Swansea had very few players only used 5 players between the ages of 24 to 28 who only account for 18% playing time.


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Re: Rival Watch

by Nameless » 21 May 2019 16:14

Stranded
Hound yep which I think also is roughly my point. They weren't massively different (up to .5 of a year different) from the likes of us, Norwich, Preston or Brentford.

I've little doubt (though again without checking) that their squad prob cost a fair bit more as well


I think the difference is the spread of ages making up the minutes.

So for Swansea, 54% of the minutes played last year were by players aged under 23 (16 players), whereas for us, as an example, players under 23 equated to 30% of total playing time despite also using 16 players under 23 under the course of a season.

Swansea U23s averaged 1700 mins in the first team last year, Reading u23s 985.

The average age equates to be roughly the same as the majority of our minutes were played by players aged 25 to 27 last season. We had 12 players in that age bracket accounting for 45% of our total minutes. Whereas Swansea had very few players only used 5 players between the ages of 24 to 28 who only account for 18% playing time.


I would have thought the time played by O'Shea completely skews any analysis based on age.
When he came on to replace Barrett against Birmingham he doubled the age of the team. We had 2 players on the pitch who even if you added their ages together were still younger than him !

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Re: Rival Watch

by URZZZZ » 21 May 2019 16:19

Hound yep which I think also is roughly my point. They weren't massively different (up to .5 of a year different) from the likes of us, Norwich, Preston or Brentford.

I've little doubt (though again without checking) that their squad prob cost a fair bit more as well


But this was Swansea's first year like this. Preston, Brentford kept their core squad for a few seasons so have experience playing with each other etc...

Compare Swansea's final XI of last season to their first XI this season. Only 1 person (Van Der Hoorn) played in both games. That's a dramatic change and quite often major squad revamps cause relegation/lower league positions

Apart from the obvious few (Wilder, Bielsa, Farke) I'd put Potter quite close to MOTS, along with Johnson and Lampard and co

Nearly onto 2 pages talking about Swansea and Potter now :lol: we need something to happen now with us. Interesting to see who will get the West Brom/Boro job, I heard Boro were looking for a manager to change their style completely but last time they tried that with Monk it failed badly

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 21 May 2019 16:39

ha indeed. Urgently need something else to talk about

Be interesting to see how both he and Swansea get on anyway. As mentioned, I do think he is a good manager and has obviously done well. But at the same time, not sure its quite as well as some inc yourself obvs do. Which is fair enough.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 21 May 2019 21:19

Hound ha indeed. Urgently need something else to talk about

Be interesting to see how both he and Swansea get on anyway. As mentioned, I do think he is a good manager and has obviously done well. But at the same time, not sure its quite as well as some inc yourself obvs do. Which is fair enough.


You’re like a dog with a bone...er Houndy.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 21 May 2019 21:20

A bored hound Zip tbh

Arguing about something I care little about

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Re: Rival Watch

by URZZZZ » 27 May 2019 17:17

Championship 19/20 teams are now official:

Barnsley
Birmingham
Blackburn
Brentford
Bristol City
Cardiff
Charlton
Derby
Fulham
Huddersfield
Hull
Leeds
Luton
Middlesbrough
Millwall
Forest
Preston
QPR
Reading
Sheffield Wednesday
Stoke
Swansea
West Brom
Wigan

Any (very) early predictions?

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Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 27 May 2019 17:20

Royals title.

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