Forty points doesn’t guarantee anything.

[Factfinder]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

[Slinky]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Thanks for clearing that up

[rotherwick_royal]

So we won't be safe until maybe March. Big deal.

I really can't believe the lads are going to get relegated after watching the games this season - and I was one of the one's who refused to believe they were going up last season until it was definite.

[bcubed]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Surely if we are statistically safe, we're safe

Although that might require more than 40 points

[East Stand Ste]

really??.....there was me thinking that 40 points would gaurantee us safety!....bugger!...panic panic panic!

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

[Only one Trevor Morley]

A good indication of the number of points needed for safety will be in three matches time when everyone has played each other once.

At present West ham have 14 lets assume they draw one, lose one and win one in the next three games. Then they'll be on 18 point meaning that 36 is likely to be the target for survival (if you double up the points).....

however I do think that you'll need all of the 40 points to stay up this year..... as everyone is picking up points off everyone else its likely that a higher point total will be required than in the last couple of years.

[shadesrwrf]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Surely if we are statistically safe, we're safe

Although that might require more than 40 points

I think what the original poster is probably saying is that statistics to date show that more often than not teams with 40 points stay up. However teams have also not stayed up with 40 points. Therefore statistical safeness at this point in time does not represent an absolute position of safety.

I do hope that goes some way towards clearing this matter up. I have a poor record statistically in this respect however.

[bcubed]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Surely if we are statistically safe, we're safe

Although that might require more than 40 points

I think what the original poster is probably saying is that statistics to date show that more often than not teams with 40 points stay up. However teams have also not stayed up with 40 points. Therefore statistical safeness at this point in time does not represent an absolute position of safety.

I do hope that goes some way towards clearing this matter up. I have a poor record statistically in this respect however.

I think you may be right and I can say that with confidence

[Northern Git]

Think statisticules or whatever mean nothing.

Three teams have gone down with forty or more points since season 1995 -96 when the Prem became a 19 team league.

West Ham 42, Bolton 40 (on goal diff ) and Sunderland 40 all went down.

WBA stayed up in 2005 with 34 points!

Avr to stay up 39 points, Avr to go down 36

All in all 40 points means sod all!

[Only one Trevor Morley]

Three teams have gone down with forty or more points since season 1995 -96 when the Prem became a 19 team league.

if its a 19 team league then we'll definitely require less than 40........

[doyleisaroyal]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Well we will just have to get 41 then....end of Jan I believe...what is your point? Is this a stray post from a Wet Sham, Watford, Warnock United, Boro or Newcastle forum?

Anyway it is a well known fact your total number of points over the course of the season is directly propotional to the number of games you play that "Nob" Styles is in charge of.

[Northern Git]

Three teams have gone down with forty or more points since season 1995 -96 when the Prem became a 19 team league.

if its a 19 team league then we'll definitely require less than 40........

Doh! Should have said 38 game season! Anyway whats the problem with loosing the odd Prem team here and there?

[Cookie]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Yea but no but yea but this makes more sense . . .

A good indication of the number of points needed for safety will be in three matches time when everyone has played each other once.

At present West ham have 14 lets assume they draw one, lose one and win one in the next three games. Then they'll be on 18 point meaning that 36 is likely to be the target for survival (if you double up the points).....

however I do think that you'll need all of the 40 points to stay up this year..... as everyone is picking up points off everyone else its likely that a higher point total will be required than in the last couple of years.

[Reading_Royal]

Think statisticules or whatever mean nothing.

Three teams have gone down with forty or more points since season 1995 -96 when the Prem became a 19 team league.

West Ham 42, Bolton 40 (on goal diff ) and Sunderland 40 all went down.

WBA stayed up in 2005 with 34 points!

Avr to stay up 39 points, Avr to go down 36

All in all 40 points means sod all!

So do we need 43 points??

[.:BigDaveInTheDungeon:.]

we'll be playing chapmions league football next year, nothing to worry about.

[Woodcote Royal]

Forty points, not far to go now, but remember, forty points represents statistical safety NOT absolute safety.

Thanks for clearing that up

Quite.

My 1970's Maths has been struggling with this calculation for quite sometime (having been deprived of the wonderful educational standards available in the modern era) So, I'm grateful for that natural caution prevalent in our fanbase, for putting the greatest season we have known in it's correct context and shall now be bricking it in appropriate fashion throughout the coming festivities.

I will also ignore all the laughter from other fans at the very mention of Reading's chances of being relegated in May, as we sit in 6th place, not to mention what I believe is the perceived wisdom within the game that 38 points normally assures survival in this division.

[madmickb]

bUGGER LETS GO FOR 50 POINTS

[readingbedding]

We'll have no need for worrying this season.

Watch everyone slating our chances next season.

[brendywendy]

i personally wont be happy until weve reached the absolute(not statistical)safety mark of 52.75 points

[Barry the bird boggler]

Depends how the league pans out, if there are 5 or 6 teams that more or less consistently lose or draw then chances are we'd need about another 12 points or so.

If its going to be one where the top 3/4 sides break away and the rest are all pretty much inconsistent then its going to be in the region of a 42 point job to secure safety.

At the moment we've got the top 2 far away from everyone, the bottom 7 starting to get detached and the other 11 all sort of consistently as good as each other with one win or one defeat meaning a good rise up or a fair old drop in the table.

Therefore things would seem to indicate we're likely to need a lower figure than the low 40s to secure safety.

All we should do in concentrate on supporting the team in every game and letting them do the usual and take each game as it comes and hopefully by the end of February everyone can breathe a sigh of relief.